538 maps Facebook likes for each candidate by county

[DanPrazeres]

And it seems having a strong correlation
New Hampshire
 i.imgur.com/fOEPZE1.png

(ps: I can't post links yet)

[danny]

And it seems having a strong correlation
New Hampshire
 i.imgur.com/fOEPZE1.png

(ps: I can't post links yet)

[Ebowed]

let's be clear here, most of Carson's voters support other candidates now that he's vacationing in Florida permanently.  you don't go out and clean up your likes

[DanPrazeres]

And it seems having a strong correlation
New Hampshire
 i.imgur.com/fOEPZE1.png

(ps: I can't post links yet)

i.imgur.com/fOEPZE1.png

Thanks

I tried here with Republican votes, and i didn't find this correlation, I think it's because of the votes of Fiorina and Christie and the Carson number of likes. Well, let's see Iowa.

[Shadows]

Just for fun I ran the same equation for the Super Tuesday states:

Alabama: +5, -18, Clinton 59-41
Arkansas: +6, -16, Clinton 58-42
Colorado: +27, +26, Sanders 63-37
Georgia: +7, -14, Clinton 57-43
Massachusetts: +27, +26, Sanders 63-37
Minnesota: +22, +16, Sanders 58-42
Oklahoma: +9, -10, Clinton 55-45
Tennessee: +8, -12, Clinton 56-44
Texas: +8, -12, Clinton 56-44
Vermont: +73, NA, Sanderslide
Virginia: +11, -6, Clinton 53-47

This may be meaningless but fantastic ANALYSIS. Kudos

Colorado & Massachusetts look Sanders lean, Oklahoma, Tennessee & Texas are Clinton lean. I don't buy Virginia or Georgia.

I think Sanders should focus on Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma along with Mass. as they could be swing states!

[Chaddyr23]

This is amazing

[Averroës Nix]

Kind of hilariously, Clinton's best geographies that I've been able to find on this are two zip codes in downtown Washington DC (20005 and 20009) where she has nearly 50% of all FB likes.

[Kingpoleon]

I like the Kasich v. Trump map. Kasich's likes are... In rather odd places.

[Averroës Nix]

I like the Kasich v. Trump map. Kasich's likes are... In rather odd places.

Probably an artifact of the extremely small number of Kasich likes in most states... Kasich's second-best state is NH, where he has 1% of likes. He's below 1% in every other state.

[This account no longer in use.]

Sanders vs. Clinton primary map (Using vs. US):

[Crumpets]

Here's a national county map using Castro's formula. So far, it correctly predicted Sanders winning every county in New Hampshire, although it was a bit generous to him with the margins, and (excluding ties both in the model and in reality) it got 60/90 counties in Iowa, predicting 23 Sanders counties would go to Clinton, and two Clinton counties for Sanders, for a generally Clinton-favorable prediction. But of the 100 non-tie (in model and in real life) counties to vote so far, it's correctly predicted 70, which is a pretty darn good record for just a formula and Facebook likes.

[Boston Bread]

I think you can improve the model by looking at the % of democratic likes.
The model as is underestimates Sanders in republican places like Sioux county, Iowa. If there are only 10% likes for Sanders and 2% for Clinton that's going to favour Clinton.
Basically, a county with 10% of likes for Sanders and 2% for Clinton should be treated the same way as a county with 50% of likes for Sanders and 10% for Clinton.

[/]

Here's a national county map using Castro's formula. So far, it correctly predicted Sanders winning every county in New Hampshire, although it was a bit generous to him with the margins, and (excluding ties both in the model and in reality) it got 60/90 counties in Iowa, predicting 23 Sanders counties would go to Clinton, and two Clinton counties for Sanders, for a generally Clinton-favorable prediction. But of the 100 non-tie (in model and in real life) counties to vote so far, it's correctly predicted 70, which is a pretty darn good record for just a formula and Facebook likes.

That must have taken a while . Great work!

But I'm having a little trouble believing that Sanders will win Chicago, LA, and Detroit.

Yay @ my county going for Sanders

[Boston Bread]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The way the model works tends to underestimate Sanders in republican counties and overestimates Sanders in democratic ones, which explains most major cities going for Sanders.

Chicago might have 50% of likes for Sanders and 20% Clinton which is treated as a win for Sanders, while Sioux County, IA could have 5% for Sanders and 2% for Clinton and would be treated as Clinton win even though it should really be the same result.

[The Other Castro]

Wow that's amazing that you made that into a county map, I was really just having some fun with it. I'll try tinkering with it a little bit.

[The Other Castro]

So I tried factoring in %Likes in relation to the total Dems percentage in each state, but it doesn't exactly work because of the phenomenon where lower total Dems percentages are usually more Clinton friendly states. I haven't figured out a way to account for that while also keeping the Sanders friendly states numbers accurate.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My county looks right here, we're around 35% black and Hillary will probably gain 75% of them, so that is a guaranteed 26% minimum for her, plus the Hispanic community and moderate Democrats, she'll carry my county 65-35.

[Boston Bread]

So I tried factoring in %Likes in relation to the total Dems percentage in each state, but it doesn't exactly work because of the phenomenon where lower total Dems percentages are usually more Clinton friendly states. I haven't figured out a way to account for that while also keeping the Sanders friendly states numbers accurate.

I tried this too and wound up with Sanders winning SC. So my idea doesn't work outside of theory

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's a national county map using Castro's formula. So far, it correctly predicted Sanders winning every county in New Hampshire, although it was a bit generous to him with the margins, and (excluding ties both in the model and in reality) it got 60/90 counties in Iowa, predicting 23 Sanders counties would go to Clinton, and two Clinton counties for Sanders, for a generally Clinton-favorable prediction. But of the 100 non-tie (in model and in real life) counties to vote so far, it's correctly predicted 70, which is a pretty darn good record for just a formula and Facebook likes.

lol I can believe Whatcom County Washington.  Obama won it 3-1 in the 2008 caucuses.  

Edit; And another fun fact, Jesse Jackson won it in 1988, so my home has voted for 2 black candidates so far!   

[youngohioan216]

Wait, Ben Carson is the most liked candidate? WTF?

Carson was well known in conservative evangelical circles long before his campaign, he did a lot of motivational speaking gigs at churches and had some books. Most of those "likes" probably predate his campaign.

I think there's a similar effect with Trump-there are a lot of people who were fans of him as the host of The Apprentice who may not necessarily be fans of him as a presidential candidate.