538 maps Facebook likes for each candidate by county

[The Other Castro]

If we try to find way to use this to predict voting patterns, we can use:
Iowa: Sanders 23%-Clinton 9%, +14, actual results Clinton 50-50
New Hampshire: Sanders 33%-Clinton 8%, +25, actual results Sanders 60-38

So a Sanders+14%like lead is a tie, while 25-14=11, multiplied by 2=22, Sanders margin in NH.

This means that Sanders predicted margin of victory = 2(%like lead-14)

Nevada: Sanders 23%-8%, +15, predicted margin: 2(15-14)=2, Sanders wins 51-49
South Carolina: Sanders 11%-4%, +7, predicted margin: 2(7-14)=-14, Clinton wins 57-43

[The Other Castro]

Just for fun I ran the same equation for the Super Tuesday states:

Alabama: +5, -18, Clinton 59-41
Arkansas: +6, -16, Clinton 58-42
Colorado: +27, +26, Sanders 63-37
Georgia: +7, -14, Clinton 57-43
Massachusetts: +27, +26, Sanders 63-37
Minnesota: +22, +16, Sanders 58-42
Oklahoma: +9, -10, Clinton 55-45
Tennessee: +8, -12, Clinton 56-44
Texas: +8, -12, Clinton 56-44
Vermont: +73, NA, Sanderslide
Virginia: +11, -6, Clinton 53-47

[The Other Castro]

If we try to find way to use this to predict voting patterns, we can use:
Iowa: Sanders 23%-Clinton 9%, +14, actual results Clinton 50-50
New Hampshire: Sanders 33%-Clinton 8%, +25, actual results Sanders 60-38

So a Sanders+14%like lead is a tie, while 25-14=11, multiplied by 2=22, Sanders margin in NH.

This means that Sanders predicted margin of victory = 2(%like lead-14)

Nevada: Sanders 23%-8%, +15, predicted margin: 2(15-14)=2, Sanders wins 51-49
South Carolina: Sanders 11%-4%, +7, predicted margin: 2(7-14)=-14, Clinton wins 57-43

By that math, Sanders should be leading by 2 points nationally.

After NH, who says he isn't?

[The Other Castro]

I made a full map based on the equation.

[The Other Castro]

Wow that's amazing that you made that into a county map, I was really just having some fun with it. I'll try tinkering with it a little bit.

[The Other Castro]

So I tried factoring in %Likes in relation to the total Dems percentage in each state, but it doesn't exactly work because of the phenomenon where lower total Dems percentages are usually more Clinton friendly states. I haven't figured out a way to account for that while also keeping the Sanders friendly states numbers accurate.