Florida Governor - 2006 Election Projection

[Ben Meyers]

Ok, here's my detailed, yet very early, analysis

Charlie Crist will be the GOP nominee, beating out Tom Gallagher and Toni Jennings fairly easily.  He will focus on a load of statewide experience in Florida.  Gallagher will do the same, yet he has less charisma, so it will be less effective.  Jennings will try to play an outsider of some sorts, but she will be overshadowed by a Crist-Gallagher race.  Crist will be ahead in the polls, with a better known name, and so Gallagher will start attacking him.  Crist will spin this against Gallagher and so he will raise way up. 

GOP Primary

Crist: 43%
Gallagher: 31%
Jennings: 19%
Other: 7%

Jim Davis and Scott Maddox will engage in a tough fight, with Rod Smith far, far behind and not posing a threat to either candidate.  Jim Davis will focus on a moderate voting record in the house, while Maddox will use his charisma to run a barnstorming campaign.  Davis will point out some skeletons in Maddox's closet, and that will be the end of Maddox, who will spin it poorly.  Smith will gain some ground, after trying to be "Mr. Nice Guy", running a positive campaign, but he won't come very close.

Dem Primary

Davis: 38%
Maddox: 32%
Smith: 26%
Others: 4%

Crist will start portraying Davis as a Washington oriented Congressman.  Davis will focus on his moderate views and fighting for Florida in Congress.  His moderate views will promote some to rally around a more liberal Green (or similar party) candidate.  Davis will impress voters in the debates with his expertise on the issues, but Crist will come out on top by being more charismatic.  The Green candidate will take away many votes from Davis.  However, even with those votes, Davis would have lost narrowly.

General Election

Crist: 50%
Davis: 47%
Green: 2%
Other: 1%

[Alcon]

From what I read, and my projection, this seems very likely. Well done.

[Ben Meyers]

Thanks

[No more McShame]

Ben, do you see any of the Republicans ditching a gubenatorial bid in favor for the Senate?  Seems to me out here in my Western perch like all Florida Republicans want to succeed Jeb, but none of them want to challenge Nelson.

[Ben Meyers]

FuturePrez, in this election, candidates are staying with their level of government.  Statewide officials are interested in a statewide position (governor) and Congressmen and Congresswomen are interested in a Congressional position (Senator).

Thanks for the question

[minionofmidas]

I'm assuming the third candidates in both primary races are getting a boost out of their opponents' negative campaigning against each other and you've already factored that into your percentages. Is that correct?

Also, is Maddox related to Lester Maddox?

[Ben Meyers]

First question - yes.
Second question - not sure