What states would Sanders win in a general election?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 06:49:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  What states would Sanders win in a general election?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What states would Sanders win in a general election?  (Read 2262 times)
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 15, 2016, 01:32:37 PM »
« edited: February 15, 2016, 04:15:58 PM by Spark498 »

Huh
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2016, 03:28:29 PM »

Vermont, New Hampshire
Logged
Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2016, 03:29:05 PM »

Do you mean in the primary?
Logged
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2016, 04:15:33 PM »


General election
Logged
sportydude
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 589


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2016, 04:33:31 PM »

Colorado, Minnesota, Vermont.
After Super Tuesday he's dropping out.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2016, 05:12:23 PM »

He would almost certainly win these states:



Amounting to 195 electoral votes.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,030
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2016, 05:21:13 PM »

Pretty much every hardcore Democratic state.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2016, 05:21:45 PM »

He would almost certainly win these states:



Amounting to 195 electoral votes.

Yeah, this looks about right. Maybe add MN since it seems very much like "Bernie country." In fact, it looks very similar to how I'd expect a Kasich or Rubio vs. Sanders GE map to look like.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2016, 05:42:10 PM »

Uh, Sanders could definitely win Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada. Pennsylvania is not out of reach either. Sanders has a 50-50 chance of winning against any Republican sans Kasich. The Hillary hack concern trolling is getting disgusting.

The title of the thread says "would", not "could."

He would not win any of those states (especially not PA) against a half decent Republican candidate. Luckily for him, only 2/6 of the current candidates meet that criteria. He could certainly beat Trump, Cruz, Jeb, and Carson.
Logged
This account no longer in use.
cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2016, 05:43:35 PM »

Uh, Sanders could definitely win Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada. Pennsylvania is not out of reach either. Sanders has a 50-50 chance of winning against any Republican sans Kasich. The Hillary hack concern trolling is getting disgusting.

The title of the thread says "would", not "could."

He would not win any of those states (especially not PA) against a half decent Republican candidate. Luckily for him, only 2/6 of the current candidates meet that criteria. He could certainly beat Trump, Cruz, Jeb, and Carson.

I wouldn't consider Rubio 'decent' at all.
Logged
Clark Kent
ClarkKent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,480
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2016, 05:44:14 PM »

Vermont, maybe Hawaii
Logged
Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2016, 05:52:20 PM »

2012 map give or take
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2016, 05:53:29 PM »

Uh, Sanders could definitely win Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada. Pennsylvania is not out of reach either. Sanders has a 50-50 chance of winning against any Republican sans Kasich. The Hillary hack concern trolling is getting disgusting.

The title of the thread says "would", not "could."

He would not win any of those states (especially not PA) against a half decent Republican candidate. Luckily for him, only 2/6 of the current candidates meet that criteria. He could certainly beat Trump, Cruz, Jeb, and Carson.
I'm just sick of certain posters here acting like this will be a McGovern type performance for the Republicans if Sanders is nominated. He'll do fine. If he manages to defeat Clinton, which is understandably difficult, he could win the general.

It depends what you mean by that. I do think he'd get McGovern'd/Mondale'd/Dukakis'd by the media, but the modern day equivalent of such is obviously not going to be a 500+ EV and 60%+ popular vote drubbing due to polarization. I think his floor (against Kasich or Rubio) is probably a Romney-esque electoral vote total, though a point or two lower than Romney in the popular vote.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2016, 05:54:23 PM »

Uh, Sanders could definitely win Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada. Pennsylvania is not out of reach either. Sanders has a 50-50 chance of winning against any Republican sans Kasich. The Hillary hack concern trolling is getting disgusting.

The title of the thread says "would", not "could."

He would not win any of those states (especially not PA) against a half decent Republican candidate. Luckily for him, only 2/6 of the current candidates meet that criteria. He could certainly beat Trump, Cruz, Jeb, and Carson.

I wouldn't consider Rubio 'decent' at all.

Neither would I. But it's not about what you or I think, it's about the perception of the general electorate. Media shilling would easily make up for whatever faults he has as a candidate.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2016, 06:18:00 PM »


He would almost certainly win these states:



Amounting to 195 231 electoral votes.

Michigan has too many blacks to vote for a Republican in anything near a close election. Minnesota is extremely inelastic. Wisconsin will be a disaster for any Republican.

We ought to see how Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia will do very soon.
Logged
RaphaelDLG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,687
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2016, 06:56:54 PM »


He would almost certainly win these states:



Amounting to 195 231 electoral votes.

Michigan has too many blacks to vote for a Republican in anything near a close election. Minnesota is extremely inelastic. Wisconsin will be a disaster for any Republican.

We ought to see how Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia will do very soon.


This.  Maybe if the Republicans nominate a Jesus/Dwayne the Rock Johnson ticket, Sanders could lose Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan, but not against any of the current possible nominees.

His ceiling against some truly radioactive Republican nominee (let's say Trump just implodes and goes crazy or something) is Obama 2012 + North Carolina.  I can't really imagine him putting Georgia, Missouri, or Arizona into play.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2016, 07:04:52 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2016, 07:08:33 PM by New Canadaland »

Against Trump:

Lean/Safe Sanders 276
Lean/Safe Trump 191
Tossup 71

Against Kasich:

Lean/Safe Sanders 201
Lean/Safe R 253
Tossup 84
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2016, 10:17:40 PM »

Vermont. Maybe Minnesota.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.