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  SC-Gravis Marketing: Trump Leads, Cruz in Second/Clinton Solidly Ahead
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Author Topic: SC-Gravis Marketing: Trump Leads, Cruz in Second/Clinton Solidly Ahead  (Read 2240 times)
mds32
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« on: February 15, 2016, 04:42:23 pm »
« edited: February 16, 2016, 01:49:44 am by Tender Branson »

SC GOP Primary
Trump 37%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 19%
Bush 9%
Kasich 6%
Carson 6%

Democratic Primary
Clinton 59%
Sanders 41%

http://www.oann.com/pollsc/
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Bigby
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2016, 04:45:07 pm »

Not really a fan of Gravis, but it doesn't seem too radical.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2016, 04:45:27 pm »

It's a pre-debate poll, for what it's worth.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2016, 04:46:37 pm »

Rubio looks a little high, but otherwise this doesn't seem horribly inaccurate.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2016, 04:53:54 pm »

Gravis, Yougov and ARG. The trinity of sh**tty pollsters is complete.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2016, 04:55:09 pm »

Gravis, Yougov and ARG. The trinity of sh**tty pollsters is complete.

You forgot Overtime. It's the Three Musketeers, plus D'Artagnan.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2016, 04:59:09 pm »

glorious poll for the secretary...sc remains clinton country
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2016, 05:00:03 pm »

Gravis, Yougov and ARG. The trinity of sh**tty pollsters is complete.

You forgot Overtime. It's the Three Musketeers, plus D'Artagnan.

I dont even know if Overtime even counts as a pollster. Im still suspicious its actually just one guy in a basement randomly entering numbers into excel.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2016, 05:00:52 pm »

Not really a fan of Gravis, but it doesn't seem too radical.

That Rubio number is pretty troll-tastic.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2016, 05:03:46 pm »

Not really a fan of Gravis, but it doesn't seem too radical.

That Rubio number is pretty troll-tastic.

It would be intriguing if it was post debate, but since it isn't, it looks quite silly.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2016, 07:02:24 pm »

Gravis has an unusual practice of herding undecideds. I would be interested to see the actual crosstabs.
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A Perez
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2016, 07:20:43 pm »

Gravis is a very bad pollster (In Iowa, they had Clinton by 11% and Trump by 4%).
Dismiss this poll as garbage.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2016, 09:25:19 pm »

Pre-debate? The Rubio narrative is amazing. I haven't seen a candidate propped up by the media like this in a long time
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2016, 09:59:31 pm »

glorious poll for the secretary...sc remains clinton country

This would not be a particularly positive result for her. It would most likely mean that she's losing whites big even in the south and/or Sanders is starting to make up a lot of ground with blacks.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2016, 10:03:58 pm »

glorious poll for the secretary...sc remains clinton country

This would not be a particularly positive result for her. It would most likely mean that she's losing whites big even in the south and/or Sanders is starting to make up a lot of ground with blacks.
I disagree.  If she's winning blacks with about 70%, and breaking even with whites, this is about the result I'd expect.
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mds32
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2016, 10:06:13 pm »

Gravis is a very bad pollster (In Iowa, they had Clinton by 11% and Trump by 4%).
Dismiss this poll as garbage.

Except that poll was before the GOP debate that weekend w/o Trump if I remember correctly.

I understand the skeptism of the Clinton numbers, but don't sit here and act like every pollster that polled in Iowa was better than them. Their Trump +4 numbers BEFORE the debate occurred were FAR better than Quinnipiac's Trump +7 numbers AFTER the debate.
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Shadows
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« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2016, 02:24:16 am »

Horrible result for Hillary, only 18%, best poll for Sanders maybe & Gravis has been hugely pro-Clinton, so this sounds great for Sanders.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2016, 02:26:05 am »

Horrible result for Hillary, only 18%, best poll for Sanders maybe & Gravis has been hugely pro-Clinton, so this sounds great for Sanders.

The CBS poll had it at the same margin.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2016, 02:26:50 am »

Why are we only getting joke polls lately (even if this here shows a good Sanders result) ?

Gravis, ARG, Overtime ... hmm.

Where's SurveyUSA for example ? I recall they polled NV in the past.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2016, 02:30:04 am »

Traditional media used to pay for these polls. Traditional media has been collapsing for a while now. Meanwhile, polling has gotten more complicated because you have to do mobile and/or online samples, and just robocalling landlines no longer works.
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RBH
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2016, 02:31:36 am »

SurveyUSA seems to be confined to doing polls for the San Diego media market and for Georgia.

(checks SurveyUSA site)

Poll for KPIX in San Francisco, Poll for KGTV in San Diego, Poll for the Salt Lake Tribune, Poll for KABC in Los Angeles.

Times have changed since the days that SurveyUSA had the money to poll all 50 states separately.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2016, 02:36:23 am »

SurveyUSA seems to be confined to doing polls for the San Diego media market and for Georgia.

(checks SurveyUSA site)

Poll for KPIX in San Francisco, Poll for KGTV in San Diego, Poll for the Salt Lake Tribune, Poll for KABC in Los Angeles.

Times have changed since the days that SurveyUSA had the money to poll all 50 states separately.

Damn, I miss the good old polling days between 2006 and 2008 when you could go to SUSA's page and type in "Franklin D. Roosevelt" vs. "Ronald Reagan" or "Oprah Winfrey" vs. "Tom Tancredo" and get results for all 50 states ... Sad

http://www.surveyusa.com/homecv.aspx
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RBH
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2016, 02:41:56 am »

The pollsters that released polls before the 2008 NV Dem caucuses

Zogby International
Mason-Dixon
American Research Group
Research 2000

So, R2K folded in 2010 after people realized their results were faked, ARG is ARG, Mason-Dixon seems to have dried up a bit lately, and Zogby is Zogby.

Both ARG and R2K had Edwards at/over 25% around a week before the caucuses. Zogby had 45-39 Hillary.

It ended 51-45 Hillary, and Obama got more delegates.
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