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  CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16  (Read 3701 times)
F_S_USATN
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« on: February 16, 2016, 04:06:23 pm »

Trump 38
Cruz 22
Rubio 14
Jeb 10
Carson 6
Kasich 4
Gilmore 1*

Clinton 56
Sanders 38

*Not included in interviews after Feb 12

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2713820/topSC1.pdf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2016, 04:08:14 pm »

Great on both sides. That will increase The Donald's average on RCP (I have no idea why these guys exclude so much polls. Especially those with lower numbers for TRUMP).
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2016, 04:13:13 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2016, 04:13:31 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2016, 04:16:38 pm by Mehmentum »

Clinton losing whites by 14 (54-40), winning non-whites by 34 (63-29).  This puts it somewhere between PPP and Yougov in terms of how polarized the vote is, despite all of them giving roughly the same overall margin.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2016, 04:15:19 pm »

Wait, Gilmore got 1% but was only included in half the interview period? That means he was at 2% in the first half!

#Gilmentum
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2016, 04:16:49 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink

In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders.  Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. 

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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2016, 04:20:33 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink

In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders.  Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. 


You say that, but PPP's South Carolina poll shows basically the same margin as every other pollster.  Unless every pollster is now in the tank for Clinton?
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standwrand
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2016, 04:23:48 pm »

I think Rubio is probably higher, maybe even 2nd.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2016, 04:24:16 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink

In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders.  Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. 


You say that, but PPP's South Carolina poll shows basically the same margin as every other pollster.  Unless every pollster is now in the tank for Clinton?

Just like how CNN can have a pro-Sanders poll, PPP can have the occasional pro-accuracy poll.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2016, 04:25:49 pm »

It looks like the old Jew may just break 40% in South Carolina. Not bad.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2016, 04:25:54 pm »

Wait, Gilmore got 1% but was only included in half the interview period? That means he was at 2% in the first half!

#Gilmentum

And considering Trump went from 40 to 31% post debate..he had a decent chance of picking up more support
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Zache
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« Reply #11 on: February 16, 2016, 04:27:02 pm »



What
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2016, 04:28:35 pm »

Carson gained 7 points after his debate performance?Huh
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2016, 04:29:58 pm »

Maybe Trump's comments about Dubya hurt him in SC more than we think, but Carson isn't getting 11% on election day.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2016, 04:30:34 pm »


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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2016, 04:31:00 pm »

It would be ironic if the long awaited Trump collapse causes a Carson surge that prevents Rubio's 3rd place 'victory'.

But the margin of error is massive on those subsamples, I wouldn't put too much stock into it.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2016, 04:31:15 pm »


Margin of Error
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A Perez
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« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2016, 04:33:12 pm »

280 likely Democratic voters = embarrassment of a poll.
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RBH
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« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2016, 04:33:59 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink

In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders.  Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. 



CNN/ORC had Bernie up by 8 (51/43) and he lost by 0.5ish%

CNN/UNH's final NH poll had Sanders up by 31 points (61/30) and he won by 22%

So, using that scale, CNN/ORC says Hillary +18 (56/38), and it'll end up around 62/37.
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2016, 04:46:46 pm »

CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!

See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. Wink

PPP's recent SC poll is their 1st poll that wasn't obviously a Hillary hack result.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2016, 04:50:42 pm »

CNN/ORC has been particularly terrible on the Democratic side this time around. We'll see if it holds up in SC.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2016, 04:51:20 pm »

From a structural standpoint, this poll sucks. Only 280 Democratic respondents? That explains why there is almost no information provided in the cross-tabs.
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Shadows
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2016, 04:57:45 pm »

Hillary hacks are amazing at twisting facts -

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228702.0

Final CNN NH Poll -
Sanders - 61% (60.4%)
Clinton - 35% (38%)

They predicted 26%, he won by 22.4%, They predicted Sanders exact vote share almost. Also exit polls show last moment people broke more towards Clinton.

And the poll before that has Sanders (57%) & Clinton (34%) - Exact 23% Difference Wow

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227853.0

CNN (Iowa) was on Jan 15th, 2 weeks before the caucus, if you want to hold a poll 2 weeks before & say they got it wrong, then you're welcome!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2016, 05:15:26 pm »


Feel the Ben.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2016, 05:32:26 pm »

Maybe Trump's comments about Dubya hurt him in SC more than we think, but Carson isn't getting 11% on election day.

Even so he is still wayyyyyyy ahead for anyone to benefit from his slide.
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