NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17%

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC poll of Nevada:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-nevada-poll/index.html

Dems

Clinton 48%
Sanders 47%

GOP

Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Kasich 5%
Bush 1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thank God, at least it's a proper poll.

NV looks like a Trumpslide for the GOP and a tight Dem race. Of course forgetting that polling NV is a pointless exercise, so who knows.

[Eraserhead]

Finally, some real numbers!

Holy hell, the Democratic race really is tight...

I figured Trump was running away with the Republican race and that definitely seems to be the case.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

LOL JEB AT 1%

And wow on the Dem side.

[Mr. Morden]

It looks like they haven't released the crosstabs yet.  They provide a link, but it doesn't seem to work.  However, the writeup suggests that the racial polarization there isn't very strong:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Eraserhead]

We need those crosstabs!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It sounds like Sanders is doing well amongst whites and Hispanics from the numbers here, but once again #WEDEMANDCROSSTABS

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'd prefer some more reputable pollster.
Let's not forget that CNN showed Sanders beating Clinton by 10 points a few days before Iowa.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'd prefer some more reputable pollster.
Let's not forget that CNN showed Sanders beating Clinton by 10 points a few days before Iowa.

TBF, it's really hard to poll caucuses because of how they're set up, but this fits in line with how tight Nevada has become in recent weeks

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd prefer some more reputable pollster.
Let's not forget that CNN showed Sanders beating Clinton by 10 points a few days before Iowa.

8 points, and their NH poll wasn't too bad.

[Eraserhead]

ORC is a decent pollster. They sucked in Iowa but so did PPP and many others.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd prefer some more reputable pollster.
Let's not forget that CNN showed Sanders beating Clinton by 10 points a few days before Iowa.

Well, at least I believe that they're actually polling, and willing to publicly release their numbers even when they diverge from the pollster consensus.  (As opposed to some of the other pollsters we've seen recently, who may either be making up #s out of thin air, or else are doing polls but then "herding" towards the consensus so they don't look bad.)

As Atlas's "favorite" pundit Nate Silver has pointed out, we should be wary of "inliers" as much as "outliers":

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/

With ORC, at least, they appear to be doing a real measurement, even if that measurement is sometimes way off.

[Sir Mohamed]

JEBMENTUM goes on!


Just LOL on the Dem side.

However, large error margins on both sides.

[Eraserhead]

So the crosstabs are disappointing because we don't get the numbers for hispanics or blacks. I guess the samples were too small.

Sanders is doing well among poors, Clinton is doing well among women, etc. There's nothing else too surprising in there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So the crosstabs are disappointing because we don't get the numbers for hispanics or blacks. I guess the samples were too small.

Huh? The caucuses were 35% non-white in 2008 and they are expected to be more than 40% this year.
How is it even possible not to have a big enough sample, did they ask 50 people total?

[/]

IIRC, the real Iowa result had Sanders make a net gain of four points compared to the final RCP average for the state, and Sanders overperformed his final RCP average in New Hampshire by nine net points. Hopefully this means that pollsters have a knack for overpolling Clinton supporters and underpolling Sanders supporters, which could actually translate to a slight lead for him in the real NV result (even if it's already ORC doing the polling).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

IIRC, the real Iowa result had Sanders make a net gain of four points compared to the final RCP average for the state, and Sanders overperformed his final RCP average in New Hampshire by eight net points. Hopefully this means that pollsters have a knack for overpolling Clinton supporters and underpolling Sanders supporters, which could actually translate to a slight lead for him in the real result (even if it's already ORC).

It'll also depend on how energized people are in Nevada if he can manage to perform as well as he does with young people and tighten the margins with AA's and tie or outright win the Hispanic voter he will win Nevada.

[Mr. Morden]

Oddly enough, the full sample is Clinton +1, while for whites it's Clinton +2.  Which means that Clinton is doing (slightly) better with whites than non-whites, which doesn't make much sense.  But since the sample as a whole has a MoE of 6 points, and the racial subsamples have MoE of 8 points or more, I guess you can sometimes get fluky results like that.

Also, Clark County shows an identical margin to the state as a whole (Clinton +1).

And Clinton is +12 among Democrats, and the caucus is only open to Democrats, but I guess since it's possible to change your registration on caucus day, that's not too big a barrier for Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43

Someone needs to give these olds a refresher course in American History, especially to the time period when Democratic Socialist FDR saved their butts from utter destruction at the hands of corporatists.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders is doing well among non black younger voters. These numbers will begin to change in SC, in MI, OH, Pa, blacks youths love Clintons.

[Maxwell]

YAAAS TRUMPMENTUM!!!

[Figueira]

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43

Someone needs to give these olds a refresher course in American History, especially to the time period when Democratic Socialist FDR saved their butts from utter destruction at the hands of corporatists.

55 years ago was 1961.

The over 55 demographic is dominated by baby boomers.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How did they not get a crosstab for Hispanics in a DEM primary in NV?  That's odd.  But this poll has Hillary winning whites, so I have to imagine Sanders is making inroads with browns.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Under age 55: Sanders +18
Over age 55: Clinton +43

Someone needs to give these olds a refresher course in American History, especially to the time period when Democratic Socialist FDR saved their butts from utter destruction at the hands of corporatists.

55 years ago was 1961.

The over 55 demographic is dominated by baby boomers.

It's just a joke.