NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll: Cruz 28 Trump 26 Rubio 17 Kasich 11
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  NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll: Cruz 28 Trump 26 Rubio 17 Kasich 11
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Author Topic: NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll: Cruz 28 Trump 26 Rubio 17 Kasich 11  (Read 5473 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: February 17, 2016, 05:49:14 PM »

This is the only post gop debate national poll. I think Trump could have been hurt by that nationally but not so much in SC where there are a lot more factors in play effecting the race. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2016, 05:49:21 PM »

I really want to believe it but... no.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #27 on: February 17, 2016, 05:50:22 PM »

From the article:

Quote
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There's only 400 voters in the sample, so it's probably just a fluke-y draw.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #28 on: February 17, 2016, 05:51:05 PM »

This poll is clearly an outlier, and even if it is accurate, there is no national primary.  Every poll suggests Trump will decimate his competition in South Carolina, which is all that matters for him in the meantime.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2016, 06:03:12 PM »

Junk poll. Trash. Throw it out.

Trump is inevitable.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2016, 06:19:51 PM »


Do you really want Cruz the Commie Cuban Canadian to win so badly?
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2016, 06:20:57 PM »


Do you really want Cruz the Commie Cuban Canadian to win so badly?
I dislike Cruz, but at least he would lose in the general election against Clinton, plus would teach conservatives that electing a "true conservative" won't work.
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jfern
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« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2016, 06:26:47 PM »

This is just a fluke poll unless another poll confirms.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2016, 06:28:26 PM »


Do you really want Cruz the Commie Cuban Canadian to win so badly?

Tony is blinded by a combination of Trump derangement syndrome and white guilt. He was defending Marco Rubio's comments on mosques just because he's a gay Hispanic a while back. Sad.
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King
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« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2016, 06:30:00 PM »

Outlier that flies in the face of the momentum of the race. What is Cruz doing right now that would justify gaining in national polls?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2016, 06:34:21 PM »

I know I am bias, but I just can't see Jeb! finishing in last place here. I don't even know if Carson has held any events in SC at all.

Bush volunteers have been blanketing my neighborhood with flyers all week.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: February 17, 2016, 06:40:55 PM »

Hate to say it but TRUMP has a point. The NBC/WSJ poll has consistently shown weakest numbers for him than every other pollster.
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The Free North
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« Reply #37 on: February 17, 2016, 06:44:43 PM »

It's not that Trump dropped like a rock in this poll, but rather the fact that Eduardo Rafael Cruz surged. If Cruz didnt catch fire after Iowa, why would he see such a rise after NH and a mediocre SC debate performance?

Cruz got booed as much as Trump did and there was that whole odd 'do you speak spanish' moment as well.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2016, 06:48:31 PM »

I know I am bias, but I just can't see Jeb! finishing in last place here. I don't even know if Carson has held any events in SC at all.

Bush volunteers have been blanketing my neighborhood with flyers all week.
This is national but I agree
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DS0816
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« Reply #39 on: February 17, 2016, 07:01:09 PM »

NBC opened its evening news with this latest poll. Then again, NBC has been doing this consistently. It is no wonder network evening news programs are a joke.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #40 on: February 17, 2016, 07:05:52 PM »

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jimrtex
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« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2016, 07:08:11 PM »

From the article:

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There's only 400 voters in the sample, so it's probably just a fluke-y draw.
Maybe Trump supporters are switching to Sanders?

BushClinton had five terms from 1988 to 2008. Voters voted for Obama in 2008 to deny BushClinton a 6th term. At the time Trump entered the race, Bush was the leader in the Republican race. Voters supported Trump because they saw him as someone who could stop Bush, and probably defeat Clinton in the general. But now the threat from Bush is over, and they see an opportunity for Sanders to defeat Clinton in the primary. Voters who see themselves as conservative won't switch to the Democratic party. But independents who want a half-crazy populist will be attracted to both Trump and Sanders, and now Sanders is viable.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #42 on: February 17, 2016, 07:49:16 PM »

From the article:

Quote
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There's only 400 voters in the sample, so it's probably just a fluke-y draw.
Maybe Trump supporters are switching to Sanders?

BushClinton had five terms from 1988 to 2008. Voters voted for Obama in 2008 to deny BushClinton a 6th term. At the time Trump entered the race, Bush was the leader in the Republican race. Voters supported Trump because they saw him as someone who could stop Bush, and probably defeat Clinton in the general. But now the threat from Bush is over, and they see an opportunity for Sanders to defeat Clinton in the primary. Voters who see themselves as conservative won't switch to the Democratic party. But independents who want a half-crazy populist will be attracted to both Trump and Sanders, and now Sanders is viable.
This would be great and explain the Republican electorate getting more conservative in this next poll.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #43 on: February 17, 2016, 11:25:12 PM »


Do you really want Cruz the Commie Cuban Canadian to win so badly?

Yes! In the same way Star Wars fans root for the Empire when they watch the movies. In both cases it won't have any real life consequences, but being on the villain's team is so much fun!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #44 on: February 17, 2016, 11:46:55 PM »

They also poll some 3-way matchups and 2-way matchups:

3-way:

Cruz 32%
Trump 30%
Rubio 26%

Cruz 38%
Trump 32%
Bush 9%

Cruz 37%
Trump 31%
Kasich 18%

Cruz 36%
Trump 29%
Carson 12%

2-way:

Cruz 56%
Trump 40%

Rubio 57%
Trump 41%

Trump 54%
Bush 43%

Trump 52%
Kasich 44%

Could you ever see yourself supporting [candidate name] for the nomination? (% yes/no)

Rubio 70/28% for +42%
Cruz 65/33% for +32%
Carson 62/35% for +27%
Trump 56/42% for +14%
Kasich 49/41% for +8%
Bush 46/53% for -7%
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #45 on: February 18, 2016, 02:49:49 AM »

Junk Poll. I doubt that the Trumpster is that much in decline. Several other polls had him at around 40% and Cruz not beyond 20%.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #46 on: February 18, 2016, 01:34:13 PM »

Junk poll. NBC, you're fired!
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #47 on: February 18, 2016, 02:16:28 PM »

This is still the only purely post GOP debate national poll, so maybe outlier or maybe canary in the coal mine. Of course assuming Trump wins by a good margin on Saturday he may boost things back up nationally so this may just have been a blip. 
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #48 on: February 18, 2016, 02:25:22 PM »

Even Scarborough and Halperin who work for MSNBC think it's a bit dodgy.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/joe-scarborough-slams-his-own-networks-trump-collapse-poll-as-extreme-outlier/
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #49 on: February 18, 2016, 02:28:09 PM »


1.  Scarborough is best friends with Trump and totally impartial
2.  Scarborough and Halperin are pundits, not pollsters
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