SC PrimR: Selzer & Co: Trump dominates, Bush not dead yet?
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  SC PrimR: Selzer & Co: Trump dominates, Bush not dead yet?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: SC PrimR: Selzer & Co: Trump dominates, Bush not dead yet?  (Read 1069 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: February 17, 2016, 05:21:08 PM »
New Poll: South Carolina President by Selzer & Co on 2016-02-16

Summary:
Trump:
36%
Cruz:
17%
Rubio:
15%
Bush:
13%
Carson:
9%
Kasich:
7%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2016, 05:24:02 PM »
I don't see how you can reconcile consistently getting results like this post-debate with NBC/WSJ's numbers.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2016, 05:27:00 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 17, 2016, 05:24:02 PM
I don't see how you can reconcile consistently getting results like this post-debate with NBC/WSJ's numbers.

Yeah, no way that NBC poll is correct.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2016, 05:27:20 PM »
For one, this poll was partially pre-debate.  Second, this poll was conducted by Selzer, who was horribly off in the IA caucus.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2016, 05:28:55 PM »
Trump was consistently between 30-40 all nights of polling and his strongest nights were Sunday and Tuesday. No sign of a TRUMP collapse in SC.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2016, 05:29:13 PM »
Selzer was an embarrassment in IA. Next.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2016, 05:48:04 PM »
Saturday will be interesting
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2016, 06:13:06 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2016, 06:14:41 PM by Ronnie »
Quote from: Wulfric on February 17, 2016, 05:29:13 PM
Selzer was an embarrassment in IA. Next.

To be fair, almost every pollster was an embarrassment in IA.

Nate Silver weighted it higher than any other poll conducted so far this week, for what it's worth.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2016, 06:44:08 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on February 17, 2016, 06:13:06 PM
Quote from: Wulfric on February 17, 2016, 05:29:13 PM
Selzer was an embarrassment in IA. Next.

To be fair, almost every pollster was an embarrassment in IA.

Nate Silver weighted it higher than any other poll conducted so far this week, for what it's worth.

He seems to use the release date of the poll as a major factor.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2016, 06:52:02 PM »
This makes far more sense than the poll showing Cruz leading, but who really knows anymore. I still think it'll be Trump and Cruz, followed by Rubio/Bush/Kasich battling it out for places 3-5.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2016, 02:42:37 AM »
fav/unfav % among Republican primary voters:

Carson 65/28% for +37%
Rubio 64/29% for +35%
Cruz 54/41% for +13%
Trump 55/43% for +12%
Kasich 41/32% for +9%
Bush 51/45% for +6%

Would you be enthusiastic about the following candidate winning the nomination? (% yes/no)

Rubio 51/47% for +4%
Carson 50/48% for +2%
Cruz 49/50% for -1%
Trump 49/50% for -1%
Bush 39/59% for -20%
Kasich 33/54% for -21%

Breaking it down into more gradations of enthusiasm: Trump leads in both ends of the spectrum on enthusiasm for winning the nomination: Largest number of people who would be “very” enthusiastic about him, but also largest number of people who would be not OK with him at all.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2016, 02:43:36 AM »
Quote from: VP Duke on February 17, 2016, 06:52:02 PM
This makes far more sense than the poll showing Cruz leading...

The recent poll with Cruz leading is a national poll, not a South Carolina poll.
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