Emerson tracking poll thread

[Ronnie]

South Carolina 2/16-2/18

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 18
Jeb 10
Kasich 10
Carson 6

http://www.theecps.com

[Mr. Morden]

This and the ARG poll are the only ones that have at least part of the sample on Feb. 18th (so, post-Haley's endorsement of Rubio), and they both have Rubio ahead of Cruz, and in second place.

Though, given the quality of the pollsters in question, it's unclear that we should actually try to read anything into that.

[Lief 🗽]

This and the ARG poll are the only ones that have at least part of the sample on Feb. 18th (so, post-Haley's endorsement of Rubio), and they both have Rubio ahead of Cruz, and in second place.

Though, given the quality of the pollsters in question, it's unclear that we should actually try to read anything into that.

Yeah, but the ARG poll shows Rubio surging while Rubio is steady in the Emerson poll (with Cruz falling down into third).

In fact it's TRUMP who is surging according to Emerson.

[M]

Emerson was one of the 2 most accurate Iowa polls. How did they do in NH?

[RI]

How did they do in NH?

They had Bush in second with 16%.

[RI]

Small sample sizes, but interesting to compare. Here were Crantford's CD results:

Results by CD:

SC-01 (Charleston): Trump 41, Cruz 18, Rubio 14, Kasich 10, Bush 5, Carson 4
SC-02 (Columbia suburbs): Trump 30, Cruz 15, Bush 14, Kasich 12, Rubio 11, Carson 2
SC-03 (Northwest SC): Trump 26, Cruz 18, Bush 15, Rubio 8, Kasich 6, Carson 5
SC-04 (Greenville/Spartanburg): Trump 23, Rubio 20, Bush 19, Cruz 15, Kasich 6, Carson 5
SC-05 (Charlotte suburbs): Trump 28, Bush/Rubio 16, Cruz 12, Kasich 11, Carson 3
SC-06 (Black Belt): Trump 28, Cruz 27, Rubio 14, Kasich 13, Bush 4, Carson 3
SC-07 (Myrtle Beach): Trump 46, Rubio 13, Cruz 10, Kasich 8, Bush 5, Carson 3

Here are Emerson's:

SC-01: Trump 26, Rubio 19, Bush/Cruz/Kasich 16, Carson 5
SC-02: Trump 39, Cruz 21, Rubio 18, Kasich 11, Bush 7, Carson 4
SC-03: Trump 42, Cruz 19, Rubio 14, Bush/Kasich 9, Carson 7
SC-04: Trump 31, Cruz 27, Rubio 15, Bush 12, Kasich 10, Carson 6
SC-05: Trump 32, Rubio 26, Cruz 18, Bush 10, Kasich 8, Carson 5
SC-06: Trump 34, Cruz 26, Rubio 18, Carson/Kasich 8, Bush 3
SC-07: Trump 45, Rubio 19, Carson 10, Bush 8, Kasich 7, Cruz 5

These results seem to make more sense than Crantford's do. The only real constant between the two is Trump running it up in Myrtle Beach, unsurprisingly.

[Zanas]

So this was the best poll on the GOP side. Emerson is building a decent track record up until now. The SC House GOP poll was decent as well.

[Ebsy]

Seems like Emerson might be on a path towards redemption.