Election Odds

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm in agreement with Christopher Micheal on this one.

[DarthKosh]

I'm in agreement with Christopher Micheal on this one.

Why am I not surprised.  What is happening in the Dem primaries is the party purging the centrists and leaving only the insane left.

[Demrepdan]

80% election chances?!

I think at BEST he as 70%. 80% Pretty much as it wrapped up by now. It's too early to judge anything. Saddam has JUST been captured. I haven't heard a lot of feed back on the election in 2004, so don't be premature in your own judgements.

However, I will not deny that Bush's chances of re-election have greatly increased.

[jravnsbo]

NO way are the Dems taking Congress.  Go look at the races carefully.  

House is currently 229-206 ( including Socialist Sanders) so Dems need to geta  NET 13 seats.  So far I have only seen about 15 seats being open and that is like 7 GOP and 8 Dems.  Plus Bush is not going to lose in a landslide and have a sweep out.  Plus if Bush wins as you play in your "what if" scenario Bush and the GOP will get a few of these seats in tossup races.  So few Democrats even are predicting a takeover of the House, especially with Pelosi and Maybe Dean as the liberal leaders of the party.  That will not play well with a lot of the close conservative Dem races , esp in the South.

Senate  currently 51-49 ( with "Jumping Jim")  So if Bush wins then Dems need to NET 2 seats to gain control.  Currently there are 4 open Southern Dem seats, with I'd say 3 of them (GA< NC< SC leaning to GOP)  then FL is an open DEm seat the Dem have to defend and that one will be a tossup.  Also we should find out tomorrow if LA becomes an open race with Sen Breaux's announcement.  The Dems could have potentially competitive races in SD, ND, NV, AR and CA--second tier but SD could really be tight with Thune running.

GOP has to defend IL ( likely Dem) and OK and AK ( but I think GOP will hold these in the end.  

Again DEms need to get a NET 2, while defending 19 vs 15 for GOP this cycle.  

So I don't see that either.  Most are predicting a few GOP seats picked up.

December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

I agree that Saddam's capture raises Bush's re-election chances. However, I disagree that it leaves little for our party to use against President Bush. Three things we could use: Where are our Surpluses? Where are the 13 Million jobs that the Clinton Administration created? Oh, and what happened to the Education President? There have been cuts there too. I predict a Democratic Sweep in the State Houses and in the Congress. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Majority in Both Houses of Congress.

[jravnsbo]

Good.  Always nice to have a buddy when you have to cry in your beer.

I'm in agreement with Christopher Micheal on this one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That attitude is just... disgusting.

[jravnsbo]

it was meant to be sarcastic--but it will be true also

No way Dems are taking Congress back, and definately not both Houses.

[DarthKosh]

it was meant to be sarcastic--but it will be true also

No way Dems are taking Congress back, and definately not both Houses.

The house is lost to them and senate almost is.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah waiting on Texas ruling.

Did you see Dems tryying to argue, well freshman GOP House members would result ina  loss of power for Texas, and so what legal argument is that?  Better to have career politicians then I guess, disgusting!

[DarthKosh]

Yeah waiting on Texas ruling.

Did you see Dems tryying to argue, well freshman GOP House members would result ina  loss of power for Texas, and so what legal argument is that?  Better to have career politicians then I guess, disgusting!

This is showing racism because who is being redistricted out is white dems.

[Gustaf]

I wouldnt corelate the NUMBER of casualties to Bush's reelection chances. Remember US Presidents were re-elected in 1944 and 1964 two years of very high US military casualties.

The difference was that then people believed the sacrifice was worth it because they could see tangible results in the wars on at that time.

The American people, more than those of any other country, are willing to accept war-related hardships when they believe its worth fighting for.

AS to the current situation my impression is that 70% of Americans (including me) supported a war to take out Saddam Hussien. Casualties in that pursuit were acceptable.
A majority of Americans (including me again) do not currently support keeping our troops there in pursuit of nation-building. I/we  dont believe thats our job and that any results will be worth the price we are paying. The administration has not yet made an convincing case on that. This is not to say they will not by November 2004 or that the results may be self-evident by then, but right now they are not!!!!

I think the British have a higher tolerance of casualties (as well as all non-democracies, but I suppose we aren't counting these)

[© tweed]

12/25/03

Bush's chances holing steady at 80%.
The GOP's chances of keeping the senate go from 99.99% to 99.999% after Breaux retires, and the GOP's chances of keeping the House is 80%.  

Democratic nomination: Chances of winning the nomination:

1. Howard Dean (75%)
2. Wesley Clark (15%)
3. Dick Gephardt (10%)

Gephardt can stop Dean is Iowa and then on Super Tuesday have a go at Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona.  clark can winn on Super Tuesday and stop Dean, and is right there on Oklahoma.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Dem nomination:
Dean 75%
Clark 15%
Geph 5%
Other 5%

[© tweed]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Why do you say a terorist attack is mor likely now?  And do you think another terrorist attack will help Bush or hurt him?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<Why do you say a terorist attack is mor likely now?  And do you think another terrorist attack will help Bush or hurt him?>>

The Feds seem pretty worried, so I boosted the chances of another attack.

If the homeland were hit again, I think Bush could be in real trouble because Dean could argue that Bush was distracted by Iraq.  Also, another large scale attack would kill the economic recovery.

I think the earlier the attack, the more danger for Bush.  But, if an attack occurs in Oct 2004, then I think it would help Bush.

[© tweed]

I don't think Dean can win without a major geopolitical event, or his message gets weaker with each passing day.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Dem nomination:
Dean 75%
Clark 15%
Geph 5%
Other 5%

Ah, but would Dean even become the Nominee if there's another Terrorist Attack against the United States? Wouldn't Wesley Clark pull out far ahead and win the Nomination?

[© tweed]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Dem nomination:
Dean 75%
Clark 15%
Geph 5%
Other 5%

Ah, but would Dean even become the Nominee if there's another Terrorist Attack against the United States? Wouldn't Wesley Clark pull out far ahead and win the Nomination?

You said that when Saddam was caught, and it didn;t happen.  But it is possible, but just as possible is another attack strengthens Dean's message.

[Gustaf]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Dem nomination:
Dean 75%
Clark 15%
Geph 5%
Other 5%

Ah, but would Dean even become the Nominee if there's another Terrorist Attack against the United States? Wouldn't Wesley Clark pull out far ahead and win the Nomination?

I agree with Chris. Dean would be hurt if national security became a more important issue.

[DarthKosh]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes he will.  He is the insane lefts canidate.

[© tweed]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

[DarthKosh]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

[Demrepdan]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

It seems as though that is the only defense people have against Dean. He is FAR-left. I think (if nominated) he will slide to the center more for the general election. I mean, he's gonna HAVE to. But if he was SO left, why is he against gun control. And many think he is more fiscally conservative than Bush.

[© tweed]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

[Gustaf]

Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

You just keep doing this, huh?