March 1st State Ratings
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Author Topic: March 1st State Ratings  (Read 3737 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: February 21, 2016, 07:27:47 PM »
« edited: February 28, 2016, 10:44:08 PM by ElectionsGuy »
I can make explanations for all of these if necessary.

Republicans

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Toss-up
Arkansas: Likely Trump
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Likely Trump
Virginia: Lean Trump

CO and WY are non-binding votes, so I don't even think its worth predicting.

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Toss-Up
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Toss-Up
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton

What is your take?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 07:32:32 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Trump
Arkansas: Lean Trump
Georgia: Likely Trump
Massachusetts: Toss up
Minnesota:  Toss Up
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont:Toss up
Virginia:  Toss Up/Tilt Rubio
CO and WY are non-binding votes, so I don't even think its worth predicting.

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado:  Toss Up
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas:  Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 07:53:07 PM »
Republicans -

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Cruz
Arkansas: Toss-Up
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Toss-Up
Minnesota:  Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Lean Trump
Texas: Safe Cruz
Vermont: Toss-Up
Virginia: Lean Trump

Democrats -

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 07:56:04 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2016, 07:57:56 PM by Holmes »
Republicans

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Trump
Arkansas: Lean Trump
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Lean Trump
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Lean Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Likely Trump
Virginia: Likely Trump

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Likely Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Likely Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton


edit: didn't realize how bullish I am on Trump on Super Tuesday until actually seeing my ratings for the states after I posted.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2016, 08:01:15 PM »
I thought I already made a thread about this... oh well.


Republicans

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Cruz
Arkansas: Lean Trump
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Likely Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Lean Trump
Virginia: Likely Trump

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2016, 08:03:28 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Lean Trump
Alaska: Toss-up (actually, just NFI)
Arkansas: Toss Up
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Lean Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Likely Trump
Virginia: Lean Trump



Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Toss Up
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Titanium safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2016, 08:23:27 PM »
REPUBLICANS
(Potential winners listed, roughly, in order of descending likelihood.)

Alabama: Toss-up (Trump/Cruz/Rubio)
Alaska: Toss-up (Cruz/Trump/Rubio)
Arkansas: Toss-up (Trump/Cruz/Rubio)
Georgia: Lean Rubio (Rubio/Trump)
Massachusetts: Likely Trump (Trump/Kasich)
Minnesota: Toss-up (Rubio/Trump/Cruz)
Oklahoma: Toss-up (Trump/Rubio/Cruz)
Tennessee: Toss-up (Rubio/Trump)
Texas: Lean Cruz (Cruz/Rubio/[Trump)
Vermont: Likely Trump (Trump/Kasich)

DEMOCRATS
Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Toss-up
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton
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MATTROSE94
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E: -5.29, S: -6.43

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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2016, 08:27:54 PM »
Republicans:
Alabama: Trump
Alaska: Cruz
Arkansas: Cruz
Colorado: Cruz
Georgia: Rubio
Massachusetts: Trump
Minnesota: Cruz
Oklahoma: Cruz
Tennessee: Rubio
Vermont: Trump
Virginia: Trump
Wyoming: Trump

Democrats:
Alabama: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
Colorado: Sanders
Georgia: Clinton
Massachusetts: Sanders
Minnesota: Sanders
Oklahoma: Clinton
Tennessee: Clinton
Texas: Clinton
Vermont: Sanders
Virginia: Clinton
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2016, 08:45:12 PM »
It's impossible to tell until we know how close Rubio will be to Trump nationally.  I will say that Rubio said that the crowd today in Tennessee (where they needed to move it outside due to the demand) was the largest of the campaign so far.  I was there, and it was a seemingly never ending sea of people!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2016, 09:01:46 PM »
As it stands, I would be a bit surprised if Trump doesn't sweep everything except the caucuses, Texas, and maybe Virginia.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2016, 09:06:55 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Likely Trump
Alaska: Lean Cruz
Arkansas: Lean Cruz
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Lean Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Safe Cruz
Vermont: Lean Trump
Virginia: Lean Trump

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
American Samoa: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Lean Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Lean Clinton
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Higgs
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E: 6.14, S: -4.17

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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2016, 09:21:20 PM »
Republicans:

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Tossup
Arkansas: Lean Trump
Georgia: Lean Trump
Massachusetts: Tilt Trump
Minnesota: Tilt Rubio
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Lean Trump
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Tossup
Virginia: Tossup

Democrats:

Alabama: Safe Clinton
American Samoa: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Lean Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Lean Clinton
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2016, 09:27:52 PM »
Republicans:
Alabama: Likely Trump
Alaska: Tump-Cruz tossup
Arkansas: Likely Trump
Georgia: Likely Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Likely Trump
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Trump-Rubio-Kasich tossup
Virginia: Lean Trump

Democrats:
Alabama: Safe Clinton
American Samoa: Likely Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Likely Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton

Analysis:
The Republican side is much more unpredictable.  We know very little about how Nevada will turn out.  Will Cruz collapse after SC?  Its possible, but I don't think so.  How much will Rubio gain, some perhaps? A lot of variables with no answers at this point.

The Democratic side is much more clear cut since Nevada has voted.  Clinton will almost certainly win by a huge margin (probably by 20+ points) in South Carolina.  There are no debates until after Super Tuesday, so barring a massive scandal in the next week and a half, Clinton will sweep the south (except maybe Oklahoma).  Sanders, however, will have a decent shot at taking every non-southern state on Super Tuesday.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2016, 09:55:33 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on February 21, 2016, 07:27:47 PM
I can make explanations for all of these if necessary.

Republicans

Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Cruz
Arkansas: Lean Cruz
Georgia: Likely Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Tossup
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Safe Trump
Virginia: Lean Rubio



Democrats

Alabama: Likely Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Lean Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton

Mine is based on polling and logic
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2016, 05:17:14 AM »
« Edited: February 22, 2016, 05:21:19 AM by MohamedChalid »
Republicans

Alabama: Lean Trump
Alaska: Toss-up (Trump/Rubio/Cruz)
Arkansas: Lean Cruz
Colorado: Lean Cruz
Georgia: Lean Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Lean Rubio
Oklahoma: Lean Cruz
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Tossup (Trump/Kasich/Rubio)
Virginia: Tossup (Trump/Rubio)
Wyoming: Lean Trump


Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Tossup
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Tossup
Minnesota: Lean Clinton
Oklahoma: Likely Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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Crumpets
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E: -4.06, S: -6.52

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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2016, 12:28:36 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Likely Trump
Alaska: Lean Trump
Arkansas: Lean Cruz
Colorado: Tossup
Georgia: Likely Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Tossup
Oklahoma: Lean Cruz
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Lean Trump
Virginia: Lean Trump
Wyoming: Likely Trump


Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Tossup
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Tossup
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Likely Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton
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Holmes
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E: -6.45, S: -5.74

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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2016, 12:34:50 PM »
I'm changing Massachusetts to Lean Sanders. Single digit win at this point.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2016, 12:43:39 PM »
Republicans
Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Lean Trump
Arkansas: Tossup
Georgia: Safe Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Tossup
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Safe Trump
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Safe Trump
Virginia: Safe Trump

Democrats
Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Tossup
Minnesota: Tossup
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton
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Maxwell
mah519
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2016, 12:44:04 PM »
Republicans
Alabama: Safe Trump
Alaska: Toss-up/Tilt Cruz
Arkansas: Toss-up/Tilt Cruz
Georgia: Lean Trump (Watch for Rubio)
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Toss-up/Tilt Cruz (Watch for Rubio)
Oklahoma: Lean Trump
Tennessee: Lean Trump (Watch for Rubio)
Texas: Lean Cruz
Virginia: Lean Trump (Watch for Rubio)
Vermont: Lean Trump (Watch for Kasich)

Democrats
Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Toss-up/Tilt Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Toss-up/Tilt Sanders
Minnesota: Toss-up/Tilt Sanders
Oklahoma: Toss-up/Tilt Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Virginia: Safeish Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2016, 01:02:21 PM »
Republicans
Alabama: Safe TRUMP
Alaska: Lean TRUMP
Arkansas: Safe TRUMP
Georgia: Safe TRUMP
Massachusetts: Safe TRUMP
Minnesota: Three-way Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe TRUMP
Tennessee: Safe TRUMP
Texas: Likely Cruz
Virginia: Safe TRUMP
Vermont: Tossup between TRUMP and Kasich

Democrats
Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Safe Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Safe Sanders
Oklahoma: Tossup
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Virginia: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2016, 01:33:07 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2016, 01:34:45 PM by Gass3268 »
Republicans

Alabama: Safe TRUMP
Alaska: Lean TRUMP
Arkansas: Toss Up (Tilt Cruz)
Georgia: Safe TRUMP
Massachusetts: Safe TRUMP
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Toss Up (Tilt Cruz)
Tennessee: Lean TRUMP
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Safe TRUMP
Virginia: Toss Up (Tilt Trump)

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Toss Up (Tilt Clinton)
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton

Should be a good day for Clinton and TRUMP. Cruz could have a decent showing as well, which would be great to all the Rubiophilies.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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E: -8.65, S: -9.04

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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2016, 02:11:02 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Safe TRUMP
Alaska: Lean TRUMP
Arkansas: Likely TRUMP
Georgia: Safe TRUMP
Massachusetts: Safe TRUMP
Minnesota: Lean TRUMP
Oklahoma: Tilt TRUMP
Tennessee: Likely TRUMP
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Safe TRUMP
Virginia: Likely TRUMP

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Tilt Sanders
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2016, 02:28:16 PM »
Republicans

Alabama: Likely TRUMP
Alaska: Toss Up
Arkansas: Lean Trump
Georgia: Likely TRUMP
Massachusetts: Safe TRUMP
Minnesota: Toss Up
Oklahoma: Toss Up
Tennessee: Lean TRUMP
Texas: Lean Cruz
Vermont: Safe TRUMP
Virginia: Toss Up

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Likely Clinton
Colorado: Toss Up
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2016, 02:51:35 PM »
Republicans


Alabama: Safe Trump (predicted top 3: Trump, Cruz, Rubio)
Alaska: Toss-up Trump/Cruz/Rubio (Trump, Cruz, Rubio)
Arkansas: Lean Trump (Trump, Cruz, Rubio)
Georgia: Safe Trump (Trump, Rubio, Cruz)
Massachusetts: Likely Trump (Trump, Rubio, Kasich)
Minnesota: Toss-Up Rubio/Trump/Cruz (very close 3-way race... as of now Rubio, Trump, Cruz)
Oklahoma: Toss-Up Trump/Cruz (Trump, Cruz, Rubio)
Tennessee: Lean Trump (Trump, Rubio, Cruz)
Texas: Likely Cruz (Cruz, Trump, Rubio)
Vermont: Lean Trump (Trump, Rubio, Kasich)
Virginia: Lean Trump (Trump, Rubio, Cruz)

Democrats

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Toss-Up
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton
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Crumpets
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« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2016, 02:58:47 PM »
To anyone who is listing Virginia, Tennessee, Texas, etc. as anything but "Safe Clinton," remember that Sanders's campaign has already said they're only planning to contest Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma. It would take a minor miracle for Sanders to win any Super Tuesday state beyond these five.
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