MA-Emerson College: Dems tied, Trump 50%
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  MA-Emerson College: Dems tied, Trump 50%
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Author Topic: MA-Emerson College: Dems tied, Trump 50%  (Read 4535 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: February 21, 2016, 09:48:11 PM »
« edited: February 22, 2016, 08:22:25 AM by HillOfANight »

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701597982194540544
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701598593816391680
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_4cdd3240b6d1406ca2a566c129f0da85.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_19487171f22a4a0e91759dc2bca96e93.xlsx?dn=ECPS_MA_POTUS_2.21_.xlsx

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_republican_presidential_primary-5205.html
Since their last poll, Cruz has doubled his support.

BernieSanders- 46%
HillaryClinton- 46%

Trump- 50%
Rubio- 16%
Kasich- 13%
Cruz- 10%
Carson- 2%
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 09:56:09 PM »

;-;

But LMAO @ the GOP numbers
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 09:58:50 PM »

This is far from the first poll to show Trump dominating Massachusetts.  It should legitimately be his best Super Tuesday state.

Hard to interpret the Democratic side as anything but good news for Clinton.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 10:05:48 PM »

Trump is really good here in Massachusetts, I seriously think he could win here in November a lot of his support is Catholic Democrats who are sick and tired of Washington
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2016, 10:39:25 PM »

If Trump dominates MA like this, he is fine in NY, NJ, CT, PA, DE etc. Without those states going for Rubio, the establishment strategy crashes and Trump wins the nomination easy.
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Bigby
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2016, 10:41:59 PM »

Good news for Trump, but I hate that we have little to compare it to.
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2016, 10:54:43 PM »

If it's Trump, Cruz and Rubio after Super Tuesday, a lot of pundits seem to think Rubio would sweep the northeast. Not so fast as this poll shows. Rubio and Cruz both oppose exceptions to abortion for rape and incest, positions well in the minority even in the GOP. He can run to the left of Rubio on social issues in NY, NJ, CT, DE, MD, PA, CA, OR, WA. The southern states will also all be finished, he will risk nearly zero backlash. Trump won't exactly have any shame either. If he wins NY, PA after good days on 3/1, 3/15, it's game over.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2016, 10:58:06 PM »

Pretty good poll for Clinton. Even a narrow loss in Massachusetts wouldn't be too bad for her, since that's a state Sanders would probably win by at least 5 if he were headed for a national win. That's a YUGE number for Trump. Looks like a comeback for Rubio won't come from the Northeast. Where will it come from, then? The Midwest? The West?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2016, 11:06:37 PM »

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/701613276375994372
Nate Silver says MA is one of his best states per MorningConsult data. Believable but would be nice if anyone had a link to this data Smiley

What's with people saying this is bad for Sanders? She won by 15 last time.

Is a tie for Sanders not good enough? I guess delegate wise, he would get nothing, but that's somewhat better than the shellacking he'll get from the southern states...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2016, 11:11:44 PM »

Do people seriously still believe that John Kasich can win here or in Vermont?
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RI
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2016, 11:12:49 PM »

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/701613276375994372
Nate Silver says MA is one of his best states per MorningConsult data. Believable but would be nice if anyone had a link to this data Smiley

It's been pretty well known that MA is in the top two or three best Trump states nationally.

Do people seriously still believe that John Kasich can win here or in Vermont?

Vermont is far, far less favorable to Trump than Massachusetts.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2016, 11:14:20 PM »

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/701613276375994372
Nate Silver says MA is one of his best states per MorningConsult data. Believable but would be nice if anyone had a link to this data Smiley

What's with people saying this is bad for Sanders? She won by 15 last time.

Is a tie for Sanders not good enough? I guess delegate wise, he would get nothing, but that's somewhat better than the shellacking he'll get from the southern states...

LOL at NJ being majority Trump. Somehow, I am not surprised.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2016, 11:15:44 PM »

BUT ISN'T TRUMP'S MAX SUPPOSED TO BE 35%???
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2016, 11:16:43 PM »


The idea is that MA is the kind of state that Sanders needs to win if he's going to win the nomination. Some of Obama's best states (MS, GA, SC) will be among Sanders' worst, so he'll need to make the delegates up somewhere else.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2016, 11:17:50 PM »

Great news for Hillary. The momentum will build even more after she crushes Sanders in South Carolina.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2016, 11:22:52 PM »

Great news for Hillary. The momentum will build even more after she crushes Sanders in South Carolina.

The media will probably spam us with muh emails or some other faux scandal right before Super Tuesday though. They do not want this race to end on Super Tuesday, and Sanders winning in only his home state and a caucus or two would do just that.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2016, 12:06:21 AM »
« Edited: February 23, 2016, 06:51:48 AM by Eraserhead »

Sanders does obviously need to win here in order to have a shot at the nomination. It's tough, this is a state where Clinton blew Obama out of the water but he was able to survive losses like this because he had the deep south in his back pocket. Bernie sure as hell doesn't have that luxury.

On the plus side, Clinton was ahead by 34 (!!!) in the last Emerson poll here. Talk about a reversal.
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2016, 12:11:49 AM »

Wow, those numbers are a bit unreal.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2016, 12:15:09 AM »

Hahaha Rubio. I haven't seen such an inflated bubble since the housing market circa 2006. Trump will trump the robot and ruin the media fantasy that is President Rubio.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2016, 12:16:48 AM »

Sanders needs to do much better here. Still think he'll win but it won't be enough.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2016, 12:21:37 AM »

Hopefully this will finally crush the myth that Trump can only get 35% max in any state.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2016, 12:24:08 AM »

Great news for Hillary. The momentum will build even more after she crushes Sanders in South Carolina.

The media will probably spam us with muh emails or some other faux scandal right before Super Tuesday though. They do not want this race to end on Super Tuesday, and Sanders winning in only his home state and a caucus or two would do just that.

Well, get ready - rumblings about some "reporter" who has Clinton's transcripts of paid speeches...I can totally see that on the weekend before Super Tuesday, combined with a new leak from the State Department about some "classified" email; probably some old Rose Law firm billing receipts will surface; maybe someone from the travel office that was fired in 1993 comes forward; maybe that Secret Service agent who claimed they saw Hillary throw a lamp and bible at Bill actually has video evidence...
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2016, 12:25:04 AM »


Vermont is far, far less favorable to Trump than Massachusetts.

Might Grafton County, NH provide some insight as to how the state will vote?  I remember hearing that it shares media markets with Burlington, but I might be wrong.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2016, 12:25:29 AM »

Hopefully this will finally crush the myth that Trump can only get 35% max in any state.

Then the narrative will change to "If Trump can only barely eek out a majority, that means nearly half the party rejected him. This will clearly go to the convention."
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2016, 12:27:02 AM »

Vermont is where Kasich needs to stay for the next couple of weeks - if he scores a win there and some decent showings in other places (maybe a nice second in Massachussets, 10%+ in those southern states) then MAYBE he could not embarrass himself elsewhere long enough to win Ohio. I think Kasich's goal, at this point, is to not embarrass himself.
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