MA-Emerson College: Dems tied, Trump 50%

[Classic Conservative]

I think there might to some extent be an Irish/Italian divide among Massachusetts Catholics on Trump. This is entirely anecdotal, but nobody in my Italian Catholic extended family, which includes a diversity of political opinion in general, can stand him.

Huh, that's strange because my Sicilian Catholic family from Medford just loves him. We were at a wake for an aunt a couple months ago and everyone was just Trump crazy, whether it was the conservatives, moderates or liberals.

[Shadows]

Emerson had NH at Sanders 52, Clinton 42, favored Clinton by 12 points over real results.
Emerson had Iowa at Sanders 43, Clinton 51, favored Clinton by 8 points over real results.
Both polls were completed just one day before the states voted.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Emerson had NH at Sanders 52, Clinton 42, favored Clinton by 12 points over real results.
Emerson had Iowa at Sanders 43, Clinton 51, favored Clinton by 8 points over real results.
Both polls were completed just one day before the states voted.

So... you're resting your hat on this one?

I mean, if I had to pick who would win MA, I'd say Bernie. But it should be tight.

I wonder if that happens, we'll get crows about how she beat Obama and now she's lost! The way that polls in June 2015 are relevant?

[Xing]

Emerson had NH at Sanders 52, Clinton 42, favored Clinton by 12 points over real results.
Emerson had Iowa at Sanders 43, Clinton 51, favored Clinton by 8 points over real results.
Both polls were completed just one day before the states voted.

Then again, most polls underestimated Clinton in Nevada, so you can never be sure.

[RI]

MA-01: Sanders 47/45
MA-02: Sanders 54/37
MA-03: Sanders 50/45
MA-04: Clinton 57/31
MA-05: Clinton 58/38
MA-06: Sanders 57/41
MA-07: Clinton 51/40
MA-08: Sanders 48/37
MA-09: Sanders 58/37

MA-01: Trump 41, Rubio 21, Kasich 19, Cruz 6
MA-02: Trump 48, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 11
MA-03: Trump 53, Rubio 16, Cruz 8, Kasich 5
MA-04: Trump 47, Cruz/Rubio/Kasich 14
MA-05: Trump 39, Kasich 23, Rubio 15, Cruz 9
MA-06: Trump 54, Rubio 20, Cruz 16, Kasich 5
MA-07: Trump 49, Rubio 29, Kasich 19
MA-08: Trump 67, Rubio/Cruz 14, Kasich 5
MA-09: Trump 61, Kasich 11, Rubio 7, Cruz 4

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think there might to some extent be an Irish/Italian divide among Massachusetts Catholics on Trump. This is entirely anecdotal, but nobody in my Italian Catholic extended family, which includes a diversity of political opinion in general, can stand him.

Huh, that's strange because my Sicilian Catholic family from Medford just loves him. We were at a wake for an aunt a couple months ago and everyone was just Trump crazy, whether it was the conservatives, moderates or liberals.

Again, it might also be a Greater Boston/Western Mass divide. My family, even my Southborough family and my Yarmouthport family, still think and vote like they're from Hampden County.

MA-01: Trump 41, Rubio 21, Kasich 19, Cruz 6
MA-02: Trump 48, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 11
MA-03: Trump 53, Rubio 16, Cruz 8, Kasich 5
MA-04: Trump 47, Cruz/Rubio/Kasich 14
MA-05: Trump 39, Kasich 23, Rubio 15, Cruz 9
MA-06: Trump 54, Rubio 20, Cruz 16, Kasich 5
MA-07: Trump 49, Rubio 29, Kasich 19
MA-08: Trump 67, Rubio/Cruz 14, Kasich 5
MA-09: Trump 61, Kasich 11, Rubio 7, Cruz 4

...as indeed these numbers would seem to corroborate to an extent (although I will note that Medford specifically is in the least Trump-friendly district in the state). The obvious negative class correlation here is upsetting but the exact opposite of surprising.

Or there could be no causation going on here at all and your family and mine are both just anecdotal outliers.

[Lief 🗽]

MA-01: Sanders 47/45
MA-02: Sanders 54/37
MA-03: Sanders 50/45
MA-04: Clinton 57/31
MA-05: Clinton 58/38
MA-06: Sanders 57/41
MA-07: Clinton 51/40
MA-08: Sanders 48/37
MA-09: Sanders 58/37

MA-01: Trump 41, Rubio 21, Kasich 19, Cruz 6
MA-02: Trump 48, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 11
MA-03: Trump 53, Rubio 16, Cruz 8, Kasich 5
MA-04: Trump 47, Cruz/Rubio/Kasich 14
MA-05: Trump 39, Kasich 23, Rubio 15, Cruz 9
MA-06: Trump 54, Rubio 20, Cruz 16, Kasich 5
MA-07: Trump 49, Rubio 29, Kasich 19
MA-08: Trump 67, Rubio/Cruz 14, Kasich 5
MA-09: Trump 61, Kasich 11, Rubio 7, Cruz 4

Ugh. If Massachusetts had the same delegate rules as most of the Southern states, TRUMP would be on track to win nearly all the delegates here.

[RR1997]

Trump does best with moderate-to-liberal, secular, northeastern, working-class whites. MA has a ton of those. This will be one of his best states.

[Brittain33]

Do they mention the sample size of Republican voters in MA-7? They can probably fit in my car.

[Gass3268]

I understand that those are small sample sizes, but Sanders is going to need to get better numbers out of the western part of the state if he's going wot win. The Cape Cod numbers are nice however.

[Timothy87]

Hmm.. Emerson had Trump winning South Carolina by 17 and he only won by 10. We'll see. I think he wins but doesn't come close to 50%

[H. Ross Peron]

MA-01: Sanders 47/45
MA-02: Sanders 54/37
MA-03: Sanders 50/45
MA-04: Clinton 57/31
MA-05: Clinton 58/38
MA-06: Sanders 57/41
MA-07: Clinton 51/40
MA-08: Sanders 48/37
MA-09: Sanders 58/37

MA-01: Trump 41, Rubio 21, Kasich 19, Cruz 6
MA-02: Trump 48, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 11
MA-03: Trump 53, Rubio 16, Cruz 8, Kasich 5
MA-04: Trump 47, Cruz/Rubio/Kasich 14
MA-05: Trump 39, Kasich 23, Rubio 15, Cruz 9
MA-06: Trump 54, Rubio 20, Cruz 16, Kasich 5
MA-07: Trump 49, Rubio 29, Kasich 19
MA-08: Trump 67, Rubio/Cruz 14, Kasich 5
MA-09: Trump 61, Kasich 11, Rubio 7, Cruz 4

Sad to see my district is so low-energy although it's unsurprising that Lynch's district is also TRUMP's best.