GA Landmark/WSB-TV: Clinton 72 Sanders 20, Trump 32 Rubio 23 Cruz 19

[HillOfANight]

http://m.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-shows-clinton-enormous-lead-georgia-primary/nqWJr/

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/02/22/Georgia_Democratic_Pres_Poll_Feb_21st_.pdf
http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/02/22/Georgia_GOP_Pres_Pref_Poll_Feb_21ST_2016.pdf

Clinton lead getting stronger. Their last poll was Clinton 63-22.

Trump 32%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 19%
Carson 8%
Kasich 8%

Seems like Cruz is sputtering.

[IceSpear]

RIP Adam Griffin

[Gass3268]

Holy poop

Looking forward as to what they say on the Rep side.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now that seems a bit excessive.

[mds32]

Holy poop

Looking forward as to what they say on the Rep side.

I am not.... lol

[Ebsy]

Poll is probably junk, since it says that Clinton has a large lead with all age groups, including 18-29. But, at least I got a good laugh imagining a 50 point Clinton win in Georgia.

[HillOfANight]

Obama beat her here 66-31. Seems like she could outdo him vs Sanders.

Of course, we also have a big black population, not sure what actual turnout will be without Obama. Still, even in 2004, Democrat primary was 50% nonwhite.

[Fusionmunster]

Landmark did pretty well polling the senate race in Georgia in 2014. Still, seems a bit extreme to have Sanders that low.

[HillOfANight]

Poll is probably junk, since it says that Clinton has a large lead with all age groups, including 18-29. But, at least I got a good laugh imagining a 50 point Clinton win in Georgia.

Why is that implausible? Maybe she is losing the sub-subgroup of white millenials but many polls show black millenials aren't feeling the bern.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-sanders-after-n-h-loss-n519076

Only 25% of black millenials support Bernie according to NBC.

[Ebsy]

I mean, I guess it is plausible, but a 50 point Clinton victory in Georgia is just a bit outside what I think is reasonable to expect.

[Holmes]

Welp. Pack it up Sanders.

[IceSpear]

Poll is probably junk, since it says that Clinton has a large lead with all age groups, including 18-29. But, at least I got a good laugh imagining a 50 point Clinton win in Georgia.

Why is that implausible? Maybe she is losing the sub-subgroup of white millenials but many polls show black millenials aren't feeling the bern.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-sanders-after-n-h-loss-n519076

Only 25% of black millenials support Bernie according to NBC.

Man, black people are the best.

[Gass3268]

Welp. Pack it up Sanders.

He was never going to win Georgia.

[Maxwell]

I suspect Donald is going to STUMP Toronto Ted and Lavenous the Friendly Robot in a GLORIOUS fashion.

[Adam Griffin]

Meh, I think it's off...but not by a considerable amount. With the exception of maybe Mississippi and Louisiana, Georgia was always going to be Sanders' worst state. It's more metropolitan status when compared to other Southern states is cancelled out by the sheer blackness of its Democratic primary electorate and the fact that a lot of those supposedly "different" suburban residents are in fact Republicans.

We'll really have an idea once we see what happens in South Carolina. I've said Sanders needs 35% in SC (based on a 55% black electorate; around 30% of the black vote & close to a majority of the non-black vote) to maintain the media narrative he needs to keep going. Georgia's electorate should be a few points blacker, but running those adjusted numbers...it only makes a point or so difference.

Georgia isn't being contested by Sanders (or by Clinton) so I'd round down to 30% as being what he needs here. Unlike SC, there isn't tons of media attention and campaigning; the electorate will be less informed on the candidates, generally-speaking, and that will of course benefit Clinton. He'll probably fall short in Georgia when it comes to my "magic number", but there are a dozen states to soften that underperformance on Super Tuesday. I suspect Sanders will get something in the range of 26-28%.

[Crumpets]

Sanders has already basically forfeited Georgia. I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton actually gets over 72% on March 1st, although that's not to say anything about how the other contests will shake out.

[Xing]

I highly doubt it will be that bad, but it'll definitely be ugly for Sanders here. Still, losing this state isn't really going to affect Sanders' chances, considering it's one of his worst states.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I highly doubt it will be that bad, but it'll definitely be ugly for Sanders here. Still, losing this state isn't really going to affect Sanders' chances, considering it's one of his worst states.

Losing the state no. But getting trounced like that will probably produce a bonanza of delegates for Clinton.

[Holmes]

I highly doubt it will be that bad, but it'll definitely be ugly for Sanders here. Still, losing this state isn't really going to affect Sanders' chances, considering it's one of his worst states.

Really? Getting at least a 50 delegate lead from Georgia alone will be enough to wipe away any delegate lead he gets in the states he wins on Super Tuesday. And then there's Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas.... Louisiana and Mississippi less than a week later...

[Gass3268]

Republican numbers are in the article now. Numbers look pretty similar to South Carolina polls.

[Ronnie]

For courtesy:

Trump 31%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 18.7%
Carson 8.1%
Kasich 7.9%

[HillOfANight]

I actually just saw a Hillary ad the other day around noon at my work gym She is working to rack up the margins.

[HillOfANight]

For courtesy:

Trump 31%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 18.7%
Carson 8.1%
Kasich 7.9%

Thanks! Original post has been updated with crosstabs too. It says 66% of white voters support Hillary compared to 26% Bernie which seems unusual compared to other states...

[RI]

GOP numbers are almost identical to SC's results.

[Mehmentum]

I actually just saw a Hillary ad the other day around noon at my work gym She is working to rack up the margins.

Very smart.  Ad spending is most effective when its unopposed.  Sanders is just going to let Clinton walk all over him in the South.