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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  VA-Hampton University: Clinton, Sanders lead all GOPers except Kasich
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Author Topic: VA-Hampton University: Clinton, Sanders lead all GOPers except Kasich  (Read 2012 times)
IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« on: February 28, 2016, 07:49:09 am »

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44

Sanders 48, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Cruz 43
Sanders 46, Rubio 44
Sanders 47, Carson 43
Kasich 44, Sanders 43

http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2016, 08:04:18 am »

Virginia is now a Lean Clinton state on the map.

Republicans have 231 electoral votes (with wins in OH/NC/CO/IA) compared to Democrats' 218 electoral votes (with wins in VA/NH/WI).
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2016, 11:18:39 am »

Great Poll for Clinton, keeping it close in Appalachian.
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komodozer
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2016, 11:23:12 am »

Dem Voters in Virginia tend to be entrenched, follow political news carefully (especially NoVA with its proximity to DC), and most importantly, these people come out and vote.  
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2016, 11:24:45 am »

Well,
This is too early to say if Clinton will win VA and lose IA obviously,
But I have the feeling VA will be more democrat than IA this time.
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RR1997
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2016, 11:28:16 am »

Not surprising.

Hillary has been crushing Trump in Virginia. Most polls have shown Hillary ahead in VA by 8+ points Trump is a terrible fit for NoVA. NoVA has been shifting towards the Democrats over the past couple of years solely because people like Trump have taken over the GOP. I could see Trump doing better in Pennsylvania and maybe even Michigan than Virginia.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2016, 11:49:02 am »

VIRGINIA will once again deny GOP WH.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2016, 11:56:58 am »

I agree that Trump is a terrible fit for VA, but I also find it interesting that Clinton is only slightly under 50% against all other Republican candidates as well (except Kasich). So this might suggest that there are many Republicans and Republican-leaning undecideds who will "come home" to Trump in the end and that VA Democrats are much more inelastic than Democrats in other swing states - like IA and CO. I mean, Kasich eking out a 1-point victory in VA is hardly impressive considering that he's handily beating Clinton nationally (RCP average has it at Kasich +7.4).  Republicans better hope that VA polls are once again overstating Democratic strength there, otherwise they might be in big trouble. This once again shows that the GOP has to make a play for PA.
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2016, 12:15:08 pm »

Virginia is an awful state. TRUMP won't waste any time there.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2016, 12:57:18 pm »

VA is a crucial state in this election. If Republicans can't win VA, they pretty much HAVE to win OH, FL, and PA. If Democrats don't win it, they need to hope that the "272 freiwal" holds up. Good numbers for Clinton, especially since she's nearly at 50%.
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Ljube
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2016, 01:09:02 pm »

VA is a crucial state in this election. If Republicans can't win VA, they pretty much HAVE to win OH, FL, and PA. If Democrats don't win it, they need to hope that the "272 freiwal" holds up. Good numbers for Clinton, especially since she's nearly at 50%.

Winning FL, OH and PA is precisely TRUMP's plan. He will try to win MI too.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2016, 01:25:34 pm »

VA is a crucial state in this election. If Republicans can't win VA, they pretty much HAVE to win OH, FL, and PA. If Democrats don't win it, they need to hope that the "272 freiwal" holds up. Good numbers for Clinton, especially since she's nearly at 50%.

Winning FL, OH and PA is precisely TRUMP's plan. He will try to win MI too.

I'm 99% confident he won't win MI.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2016, 01:33:58 pm »

Like Romney was supposed to win MI or PA. The best state is Iowa. If he cant win that, he will have problems in OH or Va
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2016, 08:08:37 pm »

VA is a crucial state in this election. If Republicans can't win VA, they pretty much HAVE to win OH, FL, and PA. If Democrats don't win it, they need to hope that the "272 freiwal" holds up. Good numbers for Clinton, especially since she's nearly at 50%.

Winning FL, OH and PA is precisely TRUMP's plan. He will try to win MI too.

You know you're up Sh!t Creek when your "game plan" and only real route to the White House involves winning states that haven't been won by your party in more than a quarter of a century.

With that being said:

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2016, 08:13:25 pm »

Trump is going to permanently make this a D-leaning state.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: February 29, 2016, 07:36:18 am »

Yes, Clinton should win this state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: February 29, 2016, 07:49:23 am »

LOL, the GOP nominates the guy with the least chances. If they want to win, nominate a Kasich/Rubio ticket.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: February 29, 2016, 08:56:14 am »

VA is a crucial state in this election. If Republicans can't win VA, they pretty much HAVE to win OH, FL, and PA. If Democrats don't win it, they need to hope that the "272 firewall" holds up. Good numbers for Clinton, especially since she's nearly at 50%.

Winning FL, OH and PA is precisely TRUMP's plan. He will try to win MI too.

It was also the plan of John McCain and Mitt Romney. It did not work. Desperate gambles rarely work. Casinos find desperate gamblers their best marks. 

The desired analogue for Democrats this year is Bush 1988 less about 100 electoral votes. The current President is still reasonably popular, and the Republican majorities in Congress are not. Hardly anyone believes that the Democrats can win back the House, and they really have no chance unless the Democrats can win back much of the South.

Let's not even talk about Pennsylvania as an R pickup until we see a credible poll of the state. Not since November (just as Congressional Republicans were set to skewer Hillary Clinton for Benghazi and the private e-mails, and long before the death of Antonin Scalia) have we seen a statewide poll of the Keystone State. I understand that there will be a poll of Pennsylvania this week. We can wait before we talk about something counter-intuitive to those who still think that the political climate that allowed two elections of Barack Obama is intact, can we not?   

Michigan hasn't gone for a Republican in a Presidential election not a Republican landslide since 1976, when it barely voted for an incumbent President and Favorite Son.

We see in this poll a tendency shown in others: that Virginia is no longer an R-leaning state capable of electing right-wing extremists or right-wing demagogues. The state recently voted in a Democratic Governor and re-elected a Democrat to the US Senate in what was one of the worst years ever for the Democratic Party. John Kasich has an edge if nominated against both Clinton and Sanders, but he isn't as blatant a right-winger as Cruz or Rubio and isn't a demagogue like Trump.

It is too early to tell whether Virginia, the one former Confederate state that did not go for Carter in 1976 and never went for Bill Clinton and had not gone for a Democratic nominee for President in a close election since 1948 but has gone twice for Barack Obama has become the sort of state that does not go for a Republican nominee for President except in a Republican blowout. Demographics indicate that Virginia is changing to the detriment of Republicans.       
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: February 29, 2016, 09:16:35 am »

For those in a nostalgic mode, here is how I saw the 2016 election late in August:


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Laugh as you wish about the inclusion of politicians long out of the Presidential race (like Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker)... but just focus on Virginia. All Republicans are in trouble in Virginia.

John Kasich does a little better in Virginia according to the most recent poll than do other Republicans because he has more of an appeal to persons more upscale in education and professional attainment than other Republicans. Unfortunately for the Republican Party his 'upscale' appeal is not so valuable as it once was in the Republican nomination. 
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: February 29, 2016, 09:39:56 am »

The GOP didnt figure in Va, when they made the convention im Cleveland. They went with conventional wisdom, that OH & Va are GOP leaning states.  Foe the third election in a row, they are voting Democratic.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #20 on: February 29, 2016, 10:06:49 am »

If Trump plays his cards right and picks someone like John Kasich as VP I think it MIGHT help him make VA slightly more competitive.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: February 29, 2016, 04:03:08 pm »
« Edited: March 15, 2016, 11:40:24 am by pbrower2a »

If Trump plays his cards right and picks someone like John Kasich as VP I think it MIGHT help him make VA slightly more competitive.

The VP nominee does not help much to swing even his own state.

Just look at recent years.

2012 -- Ryan did not make Wisconsin close.
2008 -- neither Alaska nor Delaware was going to be a swing state. Three electoral votes were not going to make the difference.
2004 -- Edwards did not swing North Carolina or even make it close.
2000 -- Cheney was chosen for ideological compatibility more than to swing anything. Wyoming has only three electoral votes. Lieberman was probably a blunder.
1996 -- Kemp was not going to swing New York State.
1992 -- Gore was picked for ideological compatibility.
1988 -- Quayle was a blunder (Indiana was not a swing state), and Bentsen, a true top-notch politician, could not swing Texas.
1984 -- does anyone care?

OK -- in 1980 Texas might have been a swing state had it not been for the Iranian hostage crisis. Texas voted for Carter in 1976.

That is how far one must go to recognize the VP nominee having a chance to swing his own state.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #22 on: February 29, 2016, 04:38:49 pm »

OH/Va arent GOP leaners in prez elections, they may be in midterms. But Jeb or Kasich  or Rubio can win them, not Trump
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2016, 08:43:20 pm »

Kasich's appeal here is in the Ohio-Pennsylvania-Virginia Appalachia area. Technically Appalachian area, Kasich easily is relatable to northwestern Virginians, particularly the swing Cucinelli '13/Obama '12 counties.
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