Georgia (Landmark Poll, Feb 26): Clinton 68%, Sanders 22%
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  Georgia (Landmark Poll, Feb 26): Clinton 68%, Sanders 22%
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Author Topic: Georgia (Landmark Poll, Feb 26): Clinton 68%, Sanders 22%  (Read 2816 times)
A Perez
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« on: February 27, 2016, 03:19:01 PM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/LandmarkRosettaStone_Georgia_Dem_Pres_Pref_Poll_February_26_2016.pdf
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 03:21:18 PM »

Other than MS and maybe AL, GA will be Sanders' worst state.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2016, 03:29:08 PM »

It would be amazing if Clinton breaks 70% here.
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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2016, 03:42:20 PM »

FBI, quick, arrest Hillary!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2016, 03:51:00 PM »

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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2016, 03:52:38 PM »

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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2016, 03:57:32 PM »

This is the same pollster that found Clinton up 52 a few days ago. I don't doubt that Clinton will clobber Sanders in GA, but this pollster's results seem to be outliers. Most other polls find her ahead between 28 and 40.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2016, 04:02:18 PM »

No GOP poll?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2016, 04:15:00 PM »

The crosstabs are interesting, to say the least:

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The Free North
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2016, 05:03:58 PM »

The crosstabs are interesting, to say the least:



Sanders is really losing his appeal, even in his 'core' areas, not good for him.

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2016, 05:57:43 PM »

The crosstabs are interesting, to say the least:



Sanders is really losing his appeal, even in his 'core' areas, not good for him.



His core has always been in the liberal college towns of the North. He may do well in Athens GA, but that's about it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2016, 06:38:42 PM »

From the exit polls in SC today (larger black turnout than expected), maybe premature, but it does seem like Landmark is right. They are generally the gold standard in Georgia.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2016, 08:08:12 PM »

This isn't looking so outlandish now.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2016, 08:13:10 PM »

This isn't looking so outlandish now.

I'd say it looks somewhat conservative now.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2016, 09:06:00 PM »

It would be amazing if Clinton breaks 70% here.

It looks almost certain now. Georgia is even blacker than South Carolina, but then again its probably a bit more liberal of a Democratic electorate.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2016, 09:17:12 PM »

Another thing to consider is that Bernie spent big on staff, 200 vs 14 in SC, tons of ads and time campaigning and doors knocked.

He had none of that in Georgia.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2016, 09:46:31 PM »

After today's SC result and considering the money sanders put into SC to not even break 30 % I'm predicting she hits 70 in Georgia Alabama and Arkansas. If not 68 % is still a huge trouncing.
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emailking
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2016, 09:47:34 PM »

I have to admit I was skeptical of some of these 30+ point polls in southern states, but after tonight, not so much. lol
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Shadows
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2016, 07:49:00 AM »

Obama got similar numbers & Clinton got destroyed too with Bill as the 1st Black POTUS & her name recognition.

South Carolina - 26%, Georgia - 31% & so on....

So I would not be surprised if Bernie does a 25-30% result here as well & in all states with high Black % in the Dem Primaries where Obama swept.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: February 29, 2016, 07:40:23 AM »

A 51% black electorate would be dramatically under-estimating the likely black electorate even before how much we saw South Carolina change between 2008 and 2016 (55% black -> 61% black). Perhaps there have been fewer white Dems that have fled the party in GA when compared to SC (it seems SC "bottomed out" a bit later than GA), but both states have open primaries, GA's share of blacks is several points larger than SC's, and I don't see - given the fact that Latinos, Asians and other miscellaneous groups barely register relative to their GE shares of the vote in primaries - how the black share of the Democratic vote is any lower than it was in 2012 in the GE (57%).

If Georgia follows SC's trajectory based on proportional demography, then Clinton is heading for a 60-point win here. Perhaps Sanders actually damaged himself somehow in SC by being so prevalent; assuming that isn't the case, then you'd have to assume that Sanders would under-perform with the stronger pro-Clinton demographics in Georgia, based on no real campaign infrastructure being present.

Also, Landmark isn't a good Georgia-based pollster - it's the "best" Georgia-based pollster by default (InsiderAdvantage should always be thrown in the trash).
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