Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote

[Figueira]

A lot of people have this idea that the more racist you are, the higher the percentage of the white vote you'll get, and if the Republicans become full-on neo-Nazis they'll get 100% of the white vote. It doesn't work that way.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Only a point or two less than Romney ~ 57%.

He'll gain more votes of working class traditionally blue collar union whites but that'll be negated with surbanites and white women turning against him.

[Reaganfan]

Can someone describe a white Obama-Trump voter? I can't.

My mother. Tuesday was her birthday. She said, "I don't like Hillary or Trump, but I can't vote for Hillary". 48 year old white woman Obama voter.

My younger sister. "I hate Hillary Clinton." 26 year old two-time Obama voter.

My electrician Democrat uncle: "What do you think of Trump? He'd run America like a business and I like that."

Off the top of my head.

See, but we are in Ohio south of Cleveland. Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

[Camaro33]

Trumps most feasible path:
-lower black turnout ( <=60%)
-Increase share of black vote (Romney was 6% - goal is 10%+)
-Maintain Romney college white numbers
-Increase noncollege white share by 3+% and increase their turnout noticeably
-Maintain other minority shares and turnout or improve them

This is feasible and believable, but unlikely to all happen simultaneously. If it all happens, Trump is looking at a narrow win.

[henster]

Something like 53-42 or 54-43, she will probably win whites outright in the Midwest, west, southwest, and northeast. But southern whites will drag her down margin wise like they always do with Dems, the white vote excluding the South was probably like 53-46 Romney instead of 59-39.

[Slander and/or Libel]

The last time the GOP did better among white voters than Romney did in 2012 was Reagan's landslide victory in 1984, which for reasons we all understand is not really comparable. Claiming that a Trump victory is *only* a matter of increasing white turnout and vote share severely understates how unlikely and difficult this is.

Romney won the white vote 59-39, and he still lost by 4 points in 2012. With demographic change, that loss would have been 5 points in 2016. Trump's got to make up those 5 points before figuring out how to make up lost ground among women and minorities. Long story short: not going to happen.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Similar to Romney numbers but I expect him to do better with African Americans, pulling in around 10-15% of that vote.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Why is this even a part of it? Trump can win without a change in this at all. Black voters due to their concentration in blue states have made themselves essentially irrelevant to the Republican party.

You're about half right, which is surprising, but the problem is that Trump's getting so few Hispanic voters whom will sink him in the Fall.

[President Johnson]

Can someone describe a white Obama-Trump voter? I can't.

Me, if I were an American citizen

[Slander and/or Libel]

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lolwut

He's been on about this for ages. If only black voters would be willing to vote for Republicans, then maybe Republicans would be willing to stop being hostile to their interests. As though that's how the feedback loop works.

[Torie]

Hey, if the turnout among working class whites matches that of upper middle class whites (which has never happened before), maybe Trump can manage to lose the General by a margin similar to the 4 point margin that Mittens lost. What are the odds something that has never happened before, happens now? Yes, you guessed it, asymptotically close to the null set.

[Holmes]

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

That would be a disaster for Republicans.

[The_Doctor]

Bush won 58%, McCain 55%, Romney 59% of the white vote. Bush won 55% of the white female vote, McCain 53%, and Romney 56%. To round out our set of facts, whites made up 77% of voters in 2004,74% in 2008, and 72% in 2012. The average decrease has been 2-3% per election cycle, a fact that takes on significance this year.

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Given the prevalence of white voters and the uncertainty of their turnout, I can't guesstimate the Trump margin of victory or defeat.

Let's look at a Trump Presidential victory by demographic. It'd have to assume (a) the white vote holding at 72% and (b) Trump leveling up to 63% of whites. That nets him a 1.5% margin of victory if (c) a reasonable assumption that Latinos move up to 84% support of Clinton. (D) 58% of white women would vote Republican and 66% of white men would vote Republican under this scenario.

But what if we reflect reality and say that whites are 70% of the electorate? Trump's margin is cut to a half point. He probably still wins but it becomes very much a tossup - even if he achieves 63% among white voters.

If white women vote 53-45% for Trump (down to McCain levels) Trump would win 60% of whites. This becomes a 4% Clinton margin (and 3% at 72% white share of electorate).

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The long and short of it boils down to that Trump has to post margins among white women that are on par with Bush 43's 2004 margins and do even better with whites than any Republican, including Reagan, has ever done. I can see him winning 62-63% of the white vote if somehow he becomes a palatable option as a nominee. Obviously he'll expand his working white appeal in the Midwest and Rust Belt.

The big question is the Latino turnout and white female vote for Trump. If Trump cannot match Bush in 2004 in this demographic and Latinos have a stronger turnout than expected, pushing the white vote to 69%, Trump loses and loses badly. These two demographics are key to the election.

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

*I'm a committed #NeverTrump Republican but I'm analyzing this objectively in terms of what Trump needs to do.

[Sbane]

In recent years, whenever the Republicans have done well nationally, they have done well with minorities. If Trump were able to get the same proportion of whites that voted Republican in 2010 and 2014 to vote for him, he would still lose the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary Clinton won't get more than 42% of the white vote.

[MisSkeptic]

Trump will do well among White Americans who have been feeling alienated with the government and with issues like employment. However, don't expect a record number of White voters to vote for him. I just expect him to attract White male voters than Clinton.

[ag]

Hillary Clinton won't get more than 42% of the white vote.

Which would be more than enough for her to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary Clinton won't get more than 42% of the white vote.

Which would be more than enough for her to win.

Of course, she can win with 36%, but I think the idea that she'll even come close to winning it is delusional.

[Ogre Mage]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Then Trump is dead.  A recent article notes:

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http://www.newsweek.com/trump-track-win-white-house-455575


Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life.  Ronald Brownstein writes:

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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/white-women-measure-of-trumps-success/481305/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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Why is this even a part of it? Trump can win without a change in this at all. Black voters due to their concentration in blue states have made themselves essentially irrelevant to the Republican party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacksonville

[Thunderbird is the word]

Michigan autoworker greatful to Obama for saving GM but like Trump's protectionism?

[Kingpoleon]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life. 

https://progressivecynic.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/quote-i-have-gone-from-a-barry-goldwater-republican-to-a-new-democrat-but-i-think-my-underlying-hillary-clinton-116-71-68.jpg

Now, since Goldwater was a well known misogynist, as every Democrat knows, and Hillary was telling the truth, I guess her new slogan is:

"Hillary 2016: Misogyny is only okay when I say so"

[Ogre Mage]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life. 

https://progressivecynic.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/quote-i-have-gone-from-a-barry-goldwater-republican-to-a-new-democrat-but-i-think-my-underlying-hillary-clinton-116-71-68.jpg

Now, since Goldwater was a well known misogynist, as every Democrat knows, and Hillary was telling the truth, I guess her new slogan is:

"Hillary 2016: Misogyny is only okay when I say so"

LOL, I suppose that might have been relevant if Hillary had been running for president when she was a teenage Goldwater supporter 50 YEARS AGO.

Times have changed but Trump's view of women is stuck in the 1960s.  It will be amusing to watch him lose because of it.

[IceSpear]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life. 

https://progressivecynic.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/quote-i-have-gone-from-a-barry-goldwater-republican-to-a-new-democrat-but-i-think-my-underlying-hillary-clinton-116-71-68.jpg

Now, since Goldwater was a well known misogynist, as every Democrat knows, and Hillary was telling the truth, I guess her new slogan is:

"Hillary 2016: Misogyny is only okay when I say so"

You're really trying to make an issue of who someone supported when they were 16 years old? And you call others hacks? lmao

[ElectionsGuy]

White Vote Ratings by State

Safe Trump: 239
Likely Trump: 58
Lean Trump: 40
Toss-Up: 20
Lean Clinton: 122
Likely Clinton: 11
Safe Clinton: 48