CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads Trump but loses to Cruz and Rubio
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads Trump but loses to Cruz and Rubio  (Read 3165 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 01, 2016, 06:25:25 AM »
Clinton 52%
Trump 44%

Rubio 50%
Clinton 47%

Cruz 49%
Clinton 48%

Sanders 55%
Trump 43%

Sanders 53%
Rubio 45%

Sanders 57%
Cruz 40%

Clinton 38%
Trump 37%
Bloomberg 23%

Sanders 44%
Trump 36%
Bloomberg 18%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2016, 06:44:16 AM »
fav/unfav % among all voters:

Sanders 57/33% for +24%
Kasich 41/22% for +19%
Carson 44/35% for +9%
Rubio 44/38% for +6%
Bloomberg 28/34% for -6%
Cruz 36/48% for -12%
Clinton 42/55% for -13%
Trump 37/60% for -23%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 85/10% for +75%
Clinton 78/19% for +59%

Carson 70/18% for +52%
Rubio 68/23% for +45%
Kasich 59/16% for +43%
Cruz 64/30% for +34%
Trump 65/32% for +33%


Among non-whites, Trump’s fav/unfav is 23/74% for -51%, and among voters under 35, it’s 25/73% for -48%.

Clinton vs. Trump among…
men: Trump +13%
women: Clinton +28%
whites: Trump +18%
non-whites: Clinton +65%
Democrats: Clinton +86%
Republicans: Trump +73%
Independents: Clinton +4%

Northeast: Clinton +10%
Midwest: Clinton +11%
South: Clinton +10%
West: Clinton +2%

In the Clinton vs. Rubio matchup, the geographic split is very different:
Northeast: Clinton +11%
Midwest: Rubio +7%
South: Rubio +7%
West: Rubio +6%
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2016, 06:46:06 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on March 01, 2016, 06:44:16 AM
fav/unfav % among all voters:

Sanders 57/33% for +24%
Kasich 41/22% for +19%
Carson 44/35% for +9%
Rubio 44/38% for +6%
Bloomberg 28/34% for -6%
Cruz 36/48% for -12%
Clinton 42/55% for -13%
Trump 37/60% for -23%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 85/10% for +75%
Clinton 78/19% for +59%

Carson 70/18% for +52%
Rubio 68/23% for +45%
Kasich 59/16% for +43%
Cruz 64/30% for +34%
Trump 65/32% for +33%


Among non-whites, Trump’s fav/unfav is 23/74% for -51%, and among voters under 35, it’s 25/73% for -48%.

Clinton vs. Trump among…
men: Trump +13%
women: Clinton +28%
whites: Trump +18%
non-whites: Clinton +65%
Democrats: Clinton +86%
Republicans: Trump +73%
Independents: Clinton +4%

Northeast: Clinton +10%
Midwest: Clinton +11%
South: Clinton +10%
West: Clinton +2%

In the Clinton vs. Rubio matchup, the geographic split is very different:
Northeast: Clinton +11%
Midwest: Rubio +7%
South: Rubio +7%
West: Rubio +6%


Clinton +10 against TRUMP in the south? What?!? And lol at Sanders almost getting 60% against TRUMP.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2016, 06:50:39 AM »
Bernie runs 18 points better against Cruz than Hillary? That's freaking epic!
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2016, 06:55:56 AM »
Sandes and Rubio does better precisely because they are not seen as the likely nominee which lowers their negatives.

Clinton +10 in the South vs Trump does look fishy.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2016, 10:09:16 AM »
Anything that counts Registered voters instead of Likely voters is trash
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2016, 10:14:50 AM »
Quote from: jaichind on March 01, 2016, 06:55:56 AM
Sandes and Rubio does better precisely because they are not seen as the likely nominee which lowers their negatives.

Clinton +10 in the South vs Trump does look fishy.

So does Clinton only +11 vs TRUMP in the Northeast.
Sample sizes with big MoE.
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The Free North
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2016, 12:24:27 PM »
So much for the idea that Bloomberg would have no national appeal. He's only 15% down without even campaigning? There is certainly a path open for him.

Trump and Clinton are simply impossible to vote for.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2016, 01:31:08 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2016, 01:32:50 PM by EliteLX »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on March 01, 2016, 06:44:16 AM
fav/unfav % among all voters:

Sanders 57/33% for +24%
Kasich 41/22% for +19%
Carson 44/35% for +9%
Rubio 44/38% for +6%
Bloomberg 28/34% for -6%
Cruz 36/48% for -12%
Clinton 42/55% for -13%
Trump 37/60% for -23%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 85/10% for +75%
Clinton 78/19% for +59%

Carson 70/18% for +52%
Rubio 68/23% for +45%
Kasich 59/16% for +43%
Cruz 64/30% for +34%
Trump 65/32% for +33%


Among non-whites, Trump’s fav/unfav is 23/74% for -51%, and among voters under 35, it’s 25/73% for -48%.

Clinton vs. Trump among…
men: Trump +13%
women: Clinton +28%
whites: Trump +18%
non-whites: Clinton +65%
Democrats: Clinton +86%
Republicans: Trump +73%
Independents: Clinton +4%

Northeast: Clinton +10%
Midwest: Clinton +11%
South: Clinton +10%
West: Clinton +2%

In the Clinton vs. Rubio matchup, the geographic split is very different:
Northeast: Clinton +11%
Midwest: Rubio +7%
South: Rubio +7%
West: Rubio +6%


I told you fools you're in for a disaster with this jackwagon. Electable my ass.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2016, 02:29:20 PM »
CNN = junk
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2016, 02:31:58 PM »
The fact that Bloomberg is performing more strongly in a Clinton v. Trump race than a Sanders v. Trump race is pretty amusing.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2016, 02:34:55 PM »
The regional surveys are complete junk but the favorabilities tell us something very damning. I love how Trump is supposed to the 'electable' one. Everything that makes him more popular with Republicans make him less popular with the rest of the country.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2016, 02:38:32 PM »
The idea that Bernie would beat TRUMP is actually rediculous. He may be beat Rafael, but not The Donald.
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RR1997
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2016, 10:44:48 PM »
Trump is doing so terribly.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2016, 11:16:57 PM »
Rubio is being propped up by a media bubble trying to blow him as some sort of moderate nice guy.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2016, 08:52:51 AM »
Trump is gonna get crushed in GE
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2016, 01:03:06 PM »
Welp, there goes the narrative that Hillary is the unelectable one based on early polling. Roll Eyes
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2016, 02:25:55 PM »
Quote from: Clarko95 on March 02, 2016, 01:03:06 PM
Welp, there goes the narrative that Hillary is the unelectable one based on early polling. Roll Eyes

How so? Not that I necessarily agree with the narrative but she's performing far worse than Sanders.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2016, 03:40:17 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 02, 2016, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Clarko95 on March 02, 2016, 01:03:06 PM
Welp, there goes the narrative that Hillary is the unelectable one based on early polling. Roll Eyes

How so? Not that I necessarily agree with the narrative but she's performing far worse than Sanders.

Well, for one, early head-to-head GE polling pretty much is meaningless. In late-2011/early-2012 all these random Republicans like Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, Cain, heck they even threw Petraeus in, were shown to be beating Obama by reverse-2008 margins. Polls showing Bernie (or Hillary, for that matter) leading by a massive margin are not to be taken seriously.


Favorability ratings, however, do matter (somewhat). Trump regularly gets 60%+ negatives while Hillary is around 50%. Both have extremely high name recognition; truly unique levels of recognition for an open race featuring two non-incumbents as early as last summer.

Most of the non-ironic Trump supporters plus some bitter Sanders supports say that nominating Hillary would be a disaster and cause her to lose to Trump (who, apparently in their minds, is beloved by all); which doesn't make sense.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2016, 04:58:58 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2016, 05:04:10 PM by Zyzz »
I guess even Taliban Ted appears vaguely moderate and sensible to general election voters compared to TRUMP.
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