The one Sanders voter in King County, TX
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  The one Sanders voter in King County, TX
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Author Topic: The one Sanders voter in King County, TX  (Read 2356 times)
HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« on: March 03, 2016, 03:21:29 PM »

Anybody willing to bet that this is the same one voter who voted for Wendy Davis there in the 2014 gubernatorial election? CNN needs to send Gary Tuchman back there to find who this voter is.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2016, 04:26:05 PM »

RIP FF
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2016, 04:29:13 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2016, 04:56:54 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.

Or one can argue that the conservative Democrats/Dixiecrats/DINOs have crossed over and are voting in the Republican primaries, which I think seems more plausible, especially in Oklahoma as Republicans continue to make gains among registered voters, and if conventional wisdom holds true that there aren't that many white Democrats left in the South as Democrats become more urban and Republicans become more rural. This is true if you compare and contrast the 2008 Oklahoma Democratic Primary with 2016 and see that Oklahoma County flipped as did every other county with the exception of Osage County (FF county).
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2016, 06:57:55 PM »

I personally think Davis' lone voter voted Clinton in the primary. The Sanders vote was probably a protest vote, and probably will not go Dem in the general.
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2016, 08:46:55 AM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.

You can clearly see the line between OK and TX on the county map, so I'm pretty sure the OK effect didn't carry over into TX.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2016, 10:03:30 AM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.
If that is so, why did she sweep Tennessee, most of Western Virginia, and upper Texas?
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Hydera
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2016, 12:24:33 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.
If that is so, why did she sweep Tennessee, most of Western Virginia, and upper Texas?

Oklahoma is one of Obama's most unpopular state and since Hillary is following Obama's stance on gun control it was ripe for her to lose because of protest votes angry that she is tough on guns compared to 2008 when she said nothing since she gained support from the region because of Obama's "guns and bible" remark.

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Nym90
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2016, 01:51:12 PM »

Fun fact: King County turnout in Democratic Presidential primaries:

1992-131 votes
2000-79 (Bradley had already dropped out of the race by this time)
2004-57 (Edwards, Dean, Clark all out of race)
2008-84
2016-3
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Nym90
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 02:14:10 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2016, 02:31:14 PM by Nym90 »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5
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Hydera
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2016, 02:54:24 PM »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5

Along with the shift to the GOP, king county has been losing population for 70 years now.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2016, 03:57:19 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.

You can clearly see the line between OK and TX on the county map, so I'm pretty sure the OK effect didn't carry over into TX.

Yeah, you're right. I was kind of unaware that Oklahoma was a completely closed primary. Now that I think about it, that's why it looks like that and that also explains this:

Oklahoma

Republicans: 459,542 (57.8%)

Democrats: 335,554 (42.2%)

Seriously WTF? ^^

Every other state took a similar pattern of being quite a few points more Republican than it usually votes. Oklahoma was a huge exception to that.
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Nym90
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2016, 07:24:15 PM »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5

Along with the shift to the GOP, king county has been losing population for 70 years now.

True. It's quite a case of "will the last Democrat to leave the county please turn off the lights?".
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P123
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2016, 10:26:59 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.

Or one can argue that the conservative Democrats/Dixiecrats/DINOs have crossed over and are voting in the Republican primaries, which I think seems more plausible, especially in Oklahoma as Republicans continue to make gains among registered voters, and if conventional wisdom holds true that there aren't that many white Democrats left in the South as Democrats become more urban and Republicans become more rural. This is true if you compare and contrast the 2008 Oklahoma Democratic Primary with 2016 and see that Oklahoma County flipped as did every other county with the exception of Osage County (FF county).


Nah, their are still some White Conservative Southerners registered as Democrats, who proabably showed up to vote for Trump in closed primaries but when they realized they couldint rage-voted for Sanders. I know my uncles one.

Look at coal county Oklahoma, for example.

Democrat Votes=718
Republican Vote=258

McCurtain County

Democrat Votes=2512
Republican Votes=1360

Chocataw County

Democrat Votes=1322
Republican Votes=711

this is a pattern that can be seen all across Southern Oklahoma, which voted massivly for Sanders (and several fringe candidates + O'Malley breaking over 4% of the vote often). Southern Oklahoma is massively more registered Democrat then Republican, so this makes sense that Conservative Democrats (or DINOs) rage voted for Sanders/random third party candidates.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2016, 08:02:09 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.

Or one can argue that the conservative Democrats/Dixiecrats/DINOs have crossed over and are voting in the Republican primaries, which I think seems more plausible, especially in Oklahoma as Republicans continue to make gains among registered voters, and if conventional wisdom holds true that there aren't that many white Democrats left in the South as Democrats become more urban and Republicans become more rural. This is true if you compare and contrast the 2008 Oklahoma Democratic Primary with 2016 and see that Oklahoma County flipped as did every other county with the exception of Osage County (FF county).

Oklahoma was a closed primary, so a lot of would be Trump voters were forced to vote in the Democratic primary and voted for Bernie and also a scattering of fringe candidates. It probably cost Trump the state. Since Bernie won so overwhelmingly he probably would've won regardless, but the margin would've been much narrower.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2016, 08:03:57 PM »

If the Oklahoma primary tells us anything, its that conservaDem DINOs who vote for Repubilcans in the general were more likely to support Sanders than Clinton. The Obama-Clinton connection that she's made has cracked her white conservative Democrat support.
If that is so, why did she sweep Tennessee, most of Western Virginia, and upper Texas?

Because Bernie gave no effort whatsoever there.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2016, 01:49:18 AM »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5
I don't understand. First you say Clinton got 54, then you say he got 96?
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Cranberry
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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2016, 02:22:04 AM »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5
I don't understand. First you say Clinton got 54, then you say he got 96?

54 votes in the General Election, 96 in the Democratic primaries - meaning that there were people who voted in the Dem primaries (i.e. they were registered Democrats), but in the General Election crossed over to vote for Bush or Perot.
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Nym90
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2016, 04:16:37 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2016, 04:18:09 PM by Nym90 »

And number of votes cast for the Democratic Presidential nominee in King County:

1940-266
1944-228
1948-231
1952-189
1956-177
1960-133
1964-180
1968-109
1972-75
1976-100
1980-55
1984-53
1988-64
1992-54 (Clinton got 96 votes in the primary!)
1996-46
2000-14 (Gore got 46 votes in the primary!)
2004-18 (Kerry got 18 votes in the primary)
2008-8 (Obama got 27 votes in the primary!)
2012-5
I don't understand. First you say Clinton got 54, then you say he got 96?

54 votes in the General Election, 96 in the Democratic primaries - meaning that there were people who voted in the Dem primaries (i.e. they were registered Democrats), but in the General Election crossed over to vote for Bush or Perot.

Exactly. And the numbers in parentheses are just the number of votes the eventual nominee themselves received in the primary, not the total number of votes cast, making the comparison even more surprising.

In 2008 for example, Obama ended up getting fewer than ten percent as many votes in the general as the total number of votes cast in the Dem primary (84)!! Along with fewer than a third as many in the general as he himself received in the primary, thus proving it wasn't just disgruntled Clinton voters switching to the GOP.
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