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Author Topic: NH-WMUR: Ayotte +4  (Read 1194 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: March 03, 2016, 06:23:06 pm »

Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.): 45%
Hassan (D): 41%

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-as-senate-campaign-begins-in-earnest-ayotte-hold-small-lead-over-hassan/38324280

Hassan is only winning women by 5 points (46%-41%). New Hampshire voters gonna New Hampshire again lol.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 06:44:16 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2016, 06:24:03 pm »

I don't think Hassan has been leading in a poll for a while, but the margin isn't too bad.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2016, 06:25:12 pm »

If Climbing Maggie wins this Senate race, she will hold this seat for three decades or so. Republicans need to defeat her at all costs.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2016, 06:27:20 pm »

I'm surprised you wrote NH instead of NVT Wink
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2016, 06:29:15 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2016, 06:34:42 pm »

I must admit that this is actually a good poll for Ayotte considering that it also shows Clinton annihilating her Republican opponents and it's been conducted right after the whole SCOTUS controversy. Hmmm, this race is still leans D in my book, though. Ayotte will have a hard time getting more than 48% of the vote.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2016, 06:58:35 pm »

This is a must win state by Dems, but Hassan has been in close,races before, like last time around she should win.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2016, 08:32:55 pm »

I must admit that this is actually a good poll for Ayotte considering that it also shows Clinton annihilating her Republican opponents and it's been conducted right after the whole SCOTUS controversy. Hmmm, this race is still leans D in my book, though. Ayotte will have a hard time getting more than 48% of the vote.

Neat.
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« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2016, 08:42:20 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.

The GOP will likely get away with keeping the seat vacant for a year without much if any consequences, but you're dreaming if you think they can get away with it for 5. Not only because of the fact that it is ridiculous on its face, but because pretty much everyone has overtly said "the next president should fill the vacancy." There's no room to maneuver around that, and the media massacre would be endless. It would be like if they never re-opened the government in 2013.
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« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2016, 11:29:44 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.

The GOP will likely get away with keeping the seat vacant for a year without much if any consequences, but you're dreaming if you think they can get away with it for 5. Not only because of the fact that it is ridiculous on its face, but because pretty much everyone has overtly said "the next president should fill the vacancy." There's no room to maneuver around that, and the media massacre would be endless. It would be like if they never re-opened the government in 2013.

When something's gone on for a year, it's the new normal. It'll quite easily go on for 5, especially after the significant boost in our ranks we will get in January 2019. Maybe it'll even be significant enough the media will realize our constituency likes the gridlock, though they've failed to grasp that to date.
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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2016, 11:35:12 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.

The GOP will likely get away with keeping the seat vacant for a year without much if any consequences, but you're dreaming if you think they can get away with it for 5. Not only because of the fact that it is ridiculous on its face, but because pretty much everyone has overtly said "the next president should fill the vacancy." There's no room to maneuver around that, and the media massacre would be endless. It would be like if they never re-opened the government in 2013.

When something's gone on for a year, it's the new normal. It'll quite easily go on for 5, especially after the significant boost in our ranks we will get in January 2019. Maybe it'll even be significant enough the media will realize our constituency likes the gridlock, though they've failed to grasp that to date.

When will you finally fill the seat? Yes, Ginsburg will get out soon enough, but still, wouldn't you rather have a reliable fifth vote for conservatism rather than rely on Kennedy?  If the sixty-vote rule is holding things up, then just abolish it for the scalia/ginsburg replacement votes and bring it back immediately afterward.

Edit: And don't assume Hillary's going to win. Just ask Dukakis, McCain, and Romney about the great reliability of early GE Polls. And if she does, doesn't that mean America wants a liberal (or at least moderate) regime?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 11:42:25 pm by Wulfric »Logged
Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2016, 11:42:21 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.

The GOP will likely get away with keeping the seat vacant for a year without much if any consequences, but you're dreaming if you think they can get away with it for 5. Not only because of the fact that it is ridiculous on its face, but because pretty much everyone has overtly said "the next president should fill the vacancy." There's no room to maneuver around that, and the media massacre would be endless. It would be like if they never re-opened the government in 2013.

When something's gone on for a year, it's the new normal. It'll quite easily go on for 5, especially after the significant boost in our ranks we will get in January 2019. Maybe it'll even be significant enough the media will realize our constituency likes the gridlock, though they've failed to grasp that to date.

When will you finally fill the seat? Yes, Ginsburg will get out soon enough, but still, wouldn't you rather have a reliable fifth vote for conservatism rather than rely on Kennedy?  If the sixty-vote rule is holding things up, then just abolish it for the scalia/ginsburg replacement votes and bring it back immediately afterward.

The seat (and any other vacancies that come up) will most likely only be filled when the President and the Senate majority are from the same party. There is perhaps some possibility for leeway if the numbers at 51-49 or something, or if a President nominates someone they are not in ideological agreement with (like Nixon nominating Blackmun, or Bush nominating Souter), but these scenarios are not particularly likely. (To clarify, getting past a 51-49 majority is unlikely, not that majority coming about).

At the moment, it seems that there is some chance of the President and Senate majority being from the same party in January 2017, but that this is unlikely; and if this does not take place, it seems there will be no correspondence for many years.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2016, 11:45:15 pm »

Ayotte's on track to crush and keep Scalia's seat open 4 more years.

The GOP will likely get away with keeping the seat vacant for a year without much if any consequences, but you're dreaming if you think they can get away with it for 5. Not only because of the fact that it is ridiculous on its face, but because pretty much everyone has overtly said "the next president should fill the vacancy." There's no room to maneuver around that, and the media massacre would be endless. It would be like if they never re-opened the government in 2013.

When something's gone on for a year, it's the new normal. It'll quite easily go on for 5, especially after the significant boost in our ranks we will get in January 2019. Maybe it'll even be significant enough the media will realize our constituency likes the gridlock, though they've failed to grasp that to date.

When will you finally fill the seat? Yes, Ginsburg will get out soon enough, but still, wouldn't you rather have a reliable fifth vote for conservatism rather than rely on Kennedy?  If the sixty-vote rule is holding things up, then just abolish it for the scalia/ginsburg replacement votes and bring it back immediately afterward.

The seat (and any other vacancies that come up) will most likely only be filled when the President and the Senate majority are from the same party. There is perhaps some possibility for leeway if the numbers at 51-49 or something, or if a President nominates someone they are not in ideological agreement with (like Nixon nominating Blackmun, or Bush nominating Souter), but these scenarios are not particularly likely. (To clarify, getting past a 51-49 majority is unlikely, not that majority coming about).

At the moment, it seems that there is some chance of the President and Senate majority being from the same party in January 2017, but that this is unlikely; and if this does not take place, it seems there will be no correspondence for many years.

See my edit below


Edit: And don't assume Hillary's going to win. Just ask Dukakis, McCain, and Romney about the great reliability of early GE Polls. And if she does, doesn't that mean America wants a liberal (or at least moderate) regime, including in the SCOTUS?
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2016, 12:29:02 am »

I'm speaking of likely results when I talk about Hillary results. Obviously, it is by no means certain, but you must admit Hillary is structurally much stronger now than Dukakis, McCain, and Romney were at the equivalent moment in their campaigns.
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2016, 12:32:56 am »

Yep, of course Ayotte being up 4 against a known opponent in a D+1 state means that she's the underdog, while Kirk being down 6 against a relatively unknown opponent in a D+8 state means that he's favored. Totally makes sense.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2016, 02:19:32 am »

Cook Cnty is defiantly gonna go hard for Zopp, as IL is seeing that Duckworth is a mediocre candidate, as I will vote for her.

As far as this race, its petfectly winnable.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2016, 07:51:42 pm »

Yep, of course Ayotte being up 4 against a known opponent in a D+1 state means that she's the underdog, while Kirk being down 6 against a relatively unknown opponent in a D+8 state means that he's favored. Totally makes sense.

Not saying Kirk is favored, just that it's a Tossup. And yes, it does make sense. Climbing Maggie won't be able to run sexist ads this time like she did against Havenstein and Lamontagne, but she will still pander to women voters. Ayotte needs at least 45% of angry women to win this race. That's almost impossible for her to achieve. 47% of NH residents would vote for a virus with a D next to its name, it's one of the most inelastic states in the country. Being a woman doesn't get you elected in Illinois, on the other hand.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 07:53:56 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2016, 01:23:10 am »

Yep, of course Ayotte being up 4 against a known opponent in a D+1 state means that she's the underdog, while Kirk being down 6 against a relatively unknown opponent in a D+8 state means that he's favored. Totally makes sense.

Not saying Kirk is favored, just that it's a Tossup. And yes, it does make sense. Climbing Maggie won't be able to run sexist ads this time like she did against Havenstein and Lamontagne, but she will still pander to women voters. Ayotte needs at least 45% of angry women to win this race. That's almost impossible for her to achieve. 47% of NH residents would vote for a virus with a D next to its name, it's one of the most inelastic states in the country. Being a woman doesn't get you elected in Illinois, on the other hand.

Being a Democrat does, as long as it's not a wave year for Republicans, where Republicans can beat damaged Democrats by narrow margins. Kirk was very lucky in 2010. He could be lucky again in 2016, but saying that he's got 50/50 odds is being far too generous, IMO. Not going to address the absurd NH nonsense.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2016, 10:55:01 pm »

Yep, of course Ayotte being up 4 against a known opponent in a D+1 state means that she's the underdog, while Kirk being down 6 against a relatively unknown opponent in a D+8 state means that he's favored. Totally makes sense.

Not saying Kirk is favored, just that it's a Tossup. And yes, it does make sense. Climbing Maggie won't be able to run sexist ads this time like she did against Havenstein and Lamontagne, but she will still pander to women voters. Ayotte needs at least 45% of angry women to win this race. That's almost impossible for her to achieve. 47% of NH residents would vote for a virus with a D next to its name, it's one of the most inelastic states in the country. Being a woman doesn't get you elected in Illinois, on the other hand.

Being a Democrat does, as long as it's not a wave year for Republicans, where Republicans can beat damaged Democrats by narrow margins. Kirk was very lucky in 2010. He could be lucky again in 2016, but saying that he's got 50/50 odds is being far too generous, IMO. Not going to address the absurd NH nonsense.

Probably a good idea for all of us, LOL.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2016, 12:42:16 am »

This is alot like the NV senate race, but its inconceivable that the Dems win the Senare without NH, and NV, while Pa & FL goes with it.
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