CA-Field: Cruz +2

[pbrower2a]

Take a look at how low Fiorina is in California. Her record at HP isn't helping her where she is best known.

[RI]

Not good numbers for Rubio.

[EliteLX]

Aside from nationwide, this is beautiful. The Cruz camp should be grinning ear to ear. Surprising Marco isn't running so hot in CA.

A Cruz storm is building in the GOP primary, slowly ever so slowly. A win in IA is looking more and more likely to be big trouble for Donald.

Also..

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[Holmes]

Aside from nationwide, this is beautiful. The Cruz camp should be grinning ear to ear. Surprising Marco isn't running so hot in CA.

A Cruz storm is building in the GOP primary, slowly ever so slowly.

So slowly that it probably won't be fully manifested by the time the primaries are over.

[Likely Voter]

http://www.mercurynews.com/politics-government/ci_29345200/poll-cruz-and-trump-dead-heat-among-california

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Maybe people are rallying to Cruz to stop Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

Full #s:

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2521.pdf

Cruz 25%
Trump 23%
Rubio 13%
Carson 9%
Paul 6%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 1%
others/undecided 13%

2nd choice:

Cruz 22%
Rubio 14%
Trump 11%
Christie 8%
Fiorina 8%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%

Who leads among…?
coastal counties: Cruz/Trump tie
inland counties: Cruz
under age 50: Cruz
age 50-64: Trump
age 65+: Trump
strongly conservative: Cruz
not strongly conservative: Cruz/Trump tie
born-again Christian: Cruz
not born-again Christian: Trump

fav/unfav % among GOP primary voters:
Cruz 69/20% for +49%
Rubio 61/26% for +35%
Carson 60/30% for +30%
Christie 52/33% for +19%
Trump 51/45% for +6%
Bush 38/58% for -20%

[Sorenroy]

Weird: they break down favorability for the top three candidates by race, but they don't give the breakdown for race in the actual first-choice vote (Table 3 and Table 6 on the PDF). Can anyone think of a reason to do that?

[Mr. Morden]

Weird: they break down favorability for the top three candidates by race, but they don't give the breakdown for race in the actual first-choice vote (Table 3 and Table 6 on the PDF). Can anyone think of a reason to do that?

The favorability by race is among all California voters, not just GOP primary voters.  The GOP primary presumably has too few minorities to get statistically meaningful racial crosstabs.  I assume they're preparing to release their Democratic primary #s, as well as general election #s, and we'll get more info at that point.

[Sorenroy]

Weird: they break down favorability for the top three candidates by race, but they don't give the breakdown for race in the actual first-choice vote (Table 3 and Table 6 on the PDF). Can anyone think of a reason to do that?

The favorability by race is among all California voters, not just GOP primary voters.  The GOP primary presumably has too few minorities to get statistically meaningful racial crosstabs.  I assume they're preparing to release their Democratic primary #s, as well as general election #s, and we'll get more info at that point.

Thanks for both the response to the post and for putting up the poll's PDF. In terms of minorities being statistically minimal for the GOP, based on my research this seams off. According to http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls it ended up being as follows for California in 2012:

White: 53-45 Romney
Black: 96-3 Obama
Hispanic: 72-27 Obama
Asian: 79-21 Obama

From that we can multiply those numbers by the share of voters:

White: 53*55=2915
Black: 3*8=24
Hispanic: 27*22=594
Asian: 21*11 = 231

And then divide the individual shares from the total and we get (any other group is removed here):

White: 77%
Black: 1%
Hispanic: 16%
Asian: 6%

While the white population is still far larger than any other group, the smaller groups are not really small enough to say that they are statistically insignificant.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Can confirm.

(Though the primary electorate would likely be a bit whiter, at expense of latinos)

[Mr. Morden]

Thanks for both the response to the post and for putting up the poll's PDF. In terms of minorities being statistically minimal for the GOP, based on my research this seams off. According to http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls it ended up being as follows for California in 2012:

White: 53-45 Romney
Black: 96-3 Obama
Hispanic: 72-27 Obama
Asian: 79-21 Obama

From that we can multiply those numbers by the share of voters:

White: 53*55=2915
Black: 3*8=24
Hispanic: 27*22=594
Asian: 21*11 = 231

And then divide the individual shares from the total and we get (any other group is removed here):

White: 77%
Black: 1%
Hispanic: 16%
Asian: 6%

While the white population is still far larger than any other group, the smaller groups are not really small enough to say that they are statistically insignificant.

The 2008 GOP primary exit poll was:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CAREP

white 76%
Latino 13%
Asian 6%
black 2%
other 3%

So, OK, sure, you can get a crosstab out of the Latino vote.  But Asian, black, and other?  Each of those is probably too small to get a meaningful crosstab in a poll like this.  The MoE would be huge.  That's not to say that those voters won't matter, but in the polling, those are pretty small crosstabs to get a good MoE on.

[yankeesfan]

I wonder if California has a "been there done that" attitude towards celebrity politicians

[Coolface Sock #42069]

California's polling isn't really relevant right now because they're one of the last states to vote. The nomination will probably be wrapped up by then.

But if it isn't, the large combined amount of support for Cruz and Trump combined should be troubling for whichever establishment candidate is left, if any, at that point.

[yankeesfan]

When are we going to get an update on California polling?  This is the latest poll from the beginning of January.

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160302/cruz-campaign-eyes-california-primary-to-stop-trump

Interesting article

[Likely Voter]

It seems that California is going to be important this time. On the Dem side it could be the state that gives Clinton a clean margin without needing supers, something I'm sure her team would prefer, even if she has the majority of pledged. 

On the GOP side it could also be the state that decides if Trump gets nomination or goes into contested convention. And it is going to cost Trump and the anit-Trumps a ton of money.   It will be nice to see CA get some attention.

[H. Ross Peron]

I don't see how TRUMP doesn't win California considering his victory in Nevada.

[Kingpoleon]

41% Undefided, -11% Others.

[yankeesfan]

41% Undefided, -11% Others.

It's 13% undecided, not 41%. Someone entered the poll wrong.

[President Johnson]

I don't see how TRUMP doesn't win California considering his victory in Nevada.

Old poll and still early. Long way to the Golden State Primary and likely TRUMP will be the only remaing candidate by then.