Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Kentucky is now 38-32 Trump with Cruz win in Kenton county bringing Trump down a whole 1% point

[Hydera]

Weirdest map ever.

I have to give the Cruz camp credit for navigating Maine so well - Cruz will continue to be a worthy adversary of TRUMP.

Despite missing the mark in Maine, I think these results bode well for Kasich - he got delegates in Kansas after all, made the threshold in Maine, and getting a decent percentage (12-13%) in Kentucky. He was never going to get that 20% in Louisiana and didn't really put the effort forward for it. He continues strongly.

Cruz is doing better in the more religious western corner. Also for Maine its probably just the republicans in the north finally back lashing against trump.

[Bigby]

Plz end caucuses.

[pppolitics]

Dare I say that the real reason Trump underperformed is because of the caucus states?

[Gass3268]

Kenton County, KY in for Cruz. Did pretty well in the Cincinnati suburbs.

[cinyc]

MSNBC called it for Trump.

Called what?

[Vosem]

How many delegates for little marco tonight?

6 from Kansas. 0 from Maine. Those are final. He's been going between 5 and 6 from Kentucky all night. LA is close -- the threshold for delegates from statewide allocation is 20%; he's currently at 17.9%. He seems to be doing worse in election day than absentee, so I doubt he'll make it. However, notably, LA delegates from CDs have no threshold, so anywhere _trump fails to eclipse 50%, the delegates will probably go 1-1-1 for the 1st-2nd-3rd candidates. Since Rubio is solidly in third, he's likely to get 1-3 delegates from LA in this way.

So...12-15 is the answer here.

[/]

[Hydera]

Cincinnati suburbs that should of been rubio's strongest showing is probably voting strategically for Cruz.

Weirdest map ever.

I have to give the Cruz camp credit for navigating Maine so well - Cruz will continue to be a worthy adversary of TRUMP.

Despite missing the mark in Maine, I think these results bode well for Kasich - he got delegates in Kansas after all, made the threshold in Maine, and getting a decent percentage (12-13%) in Kentucky. He was never going to get that 20% in Louisiana and didn't really put the effort forward for it. He continues strongly.

Cruz is doing better in the more religious western corner. Also for Maine its probably just the republicans in the north finally back lashing against trump.

[pppolitics]

Dare I say that the real reason Trump underperformed is because of the caucus states?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the Cincinatti suburbs are an indication, maybe Cruz is actually doing well in Louisville and Fayette County?

[Bigby]

Dare I say that the real reason Trump underperformed is because of the caucus states?

I think you're right. Trump voters tend to be at work while Cruz supporters are the more zealous types.

[MT Treasurer]

Cruz winning Maine is almost as bad as Bush II winning New Hampshire in the general in 2000.

My signature must really annoy you

It does give me chills but it doesn't annoy me. In 2004 New Hampshire redeemed itself (herself?)

It will never happen again. NH is now a solid blue state.

[yankeesfan]

Cruz is really gained ground in Louisana. Almost at 30% already.  I know it's already called, but it really shows the swing to Cruz from Rubio supporters.

[/]

Cruz hasn't technically won an LA parish yet, but he's ahead in eight.

[Bigby]

Cruz is really gained ground in Louisana. Almost at 30% already.  I know it's already called, but it really shows the swing to Cruz from Rubio supporters.

Doesn't sound like "tactical" voting either.

[Ronnie]

I think it might be time to stick a fork into Rubio.  He's not going to cross the threshold in LA, and might even get 4th in KY.

[Xing]

I'm not sure what's more exciting in KY, the race for 1st, or the race for 3rd.

[cinyc]

Dare I say that the real reason Trump underperformed is because of the caucus states?

I think you're right. Trump voters tend to be at work while Cruz supporters are the more zealous types.

On a Saturday?

[Hydera]

Dare I say that the real reason Trump underperformed is because of the caucus states?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias

A lot of times those voters might peel off to the other side just to avoid embarrassment of being seen supporting the candidate unpopular with their area/friends/family etc.

[Vosem]

Cruz is really gained ground in Louisana. Almost at 30% already.  I know it's already called, but it really shows the swing to Cruz from Rubio supporters.

It's very important to keep an eye on LA; if _trump can be kept below 50% in all or most congressional districts, they will split 1-1-1 instead of 2-1, and if his statewide win over Cruz is sufficiently small that will result in _trump getting <50% of delegates from LA, making this state another victory for the #Never_trump movement, ignited by Mitt Romney, that is sweeping the nation.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Surprised Cruz is doing well in the Cincinnati suburbs and Franklin county (Frankfort), should bode well potentially for Fayette and Jefferson county and WKY is still out.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

LA is now 44-33

[Gass3268]

MSNBC called it for Trump.

Called what?

LA

[Mike Thick]

MSNBC called it for Trump.

Called what?

LA

I thought it was KY for a sec, lol