MI: Monmouth: Kasich closing hard post-debate; Clinton +13
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  MI: Monmouth: Kasich closing hard post-debate; Clinton +13		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MI: Monmouth: Kasich closing hard post-debate; Clinton +13  (Read 3498 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: March 07, 2016, 11:53:25 AM »
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Overall:

Trump 36
Cruz 23
Kasich 21
Rubio 13

Pre-debate:

Trump 39
Cruz 22
Kasich 17
Rubio 14

Post-debate:

Trump 32
Kasich 26
Cruz 25
Rubio 12

Dems:

Clinton 55
Sanders 42
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2016, 11:54:44 AM »
Kasich and Cruz are doing great but Rubio should just drop out now.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2016, 11:54:51 AM »
HOLD UP

WAIT A MINUTE

Kasich-mentum is real!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2016, 11:56:15 AM »
Kasich winning MI would actually be cool. Together with Sanders at ~45%.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 12:15:03 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 07, 2016, 11:56:15 AM
Kasich winning MI would actually be cool. Together with Sanders at ~45%.
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The Free North
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2016, 12:15:51 PM »
How does early voting in MI work?

If large numbers of voters had already cast their ballots like in LA, the Trump lead may be insurmountable. However, this poll shows that Trump continues to lose momentum (he lost election day voters in LA) and should his collapse continue, Kasich and Cruz could post some very impressive numbers.

Also of note is the utter collapse of Rubio, it is difficult to imagine that his supporters will stick with him for much longer and if he were to collapse completely it may help the anti-Trump vote do even better. Winning begets support and I think Rubio has seen his support wane almost as much as Trump has in recent days.

Very interesting, we shall see how this ends up.
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PeteB
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2016, 12:19:23 PM »
The fact that Rubio is collapsing is no surprise, but having both Kasich and Cruz strong means Trump wins, even with a reduced margin of votes for him.  Still this is not a WTA state and if this holds up, the two of them will be getting some serious delegate numbers.
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RI
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2016, 12:23:43 PM »

Michigan is pretty strict about absentee voting.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2016, 12:28:35 PM »

So far, 550.000 absentee ballots were requested (up by 35% compared with 2012).

Which means turnout should be anywhere between 1.5-2 million tomorrow.

Absentees seem to be 1/4 of the total vote (assuming not all requested are returned).
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2016, 12:37:53 PM »
Rubio needs to step aside and let Kasich absorb his votes.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2016, 01:10:30 PM »
What doe "pre-debate" and "post-debate" mean?
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The Free North
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2016, 01:16:51 PM »
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 07, 2016, 01:10:30 PM
What doe "pre-debate" and "post-debate" mean?

Cmon, really?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2016, 01:22:07 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on March 07, 2016, 11:54:44 AM
Kasich and Cruz are doing great but Rubio should just drop out now.

No, all the other candidates so that he can beat The Donald Wink
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2016, 01:54:05 PM »
Quote from: VP Duke on March 07, 2016, 12:37:53 PM
Rubio needs to step aside and let Kasich absorb his votes.

Who says Kasich is the one who would absorb his votes?  I imagine most would go to Cruz.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2016, 01:58:38 PM »
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Spectacular news!
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2016, 02:00:07 PM »
The really relevant thing is that Kasich is taking votes from trump, not so much from Rubio, if this poll is accurate. You have trump at -7, undecided -3, Rubio at -2, Cruz +3, Kasich +9. Rubio is holding steady at his low pre-debate vote levels.

Still looks like a single-digit trump victory, however, unless the Rubio voters on E-Day heed Romney's advice and go to Kasich.

In fact, if trump continues bleeding to Kasich while Rubio bleeds to Cruz, the specter of trump coming in third place here rears its head...
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2016, 02:08:50 PM »
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 07, 2016, 01:10:30 PM
What doe "pre-debate" and "post-debate" mean?

Junk question!
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2016, 02:11:50 PM »
Quote from: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 07, 2016, 01:10:30 PM
What doe "pre-debate" and "post-debate" mean?

There was a debate Thursday night.  Some of the poll was done before, some after.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2016, 02:40:01 PM »
New Poll: Michigan President by Monmouth University on 2016-03-06

Summary:
Trump:
36%
Cruz:
23%
Kasich:
21%
Rubio:
13%
Other:
2%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2016, 02:46:37 PM »
New Poll: Michigan President by Monmouth University on 2016-03-06

Summary:
Clinton:
55%
Sanders:
42%
Other:
-1%
Undecided:
4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2016, 07:11:04 PM »
So, +10 every day post-debate for Kasich?

In all seriousness, Kasich-mentum makes this Toss-up. Cruz and Rubio are circling Florida.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2016, 11:31:37 PM »
2-way matchups:

Rubio 46%
Trump 45%

Cruz 48%
Trump 41%

Too bad they didn't test Kasich vs. Trump.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2016, 11:41:10 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on March 07, 2016, 11:31:37 PM
2-way matchups:

Rubio 46%
Trump 45%

Cruz 48%
Trump 41%

Too bad they didn't test Kasich vs. Trump.


If Cruz is capable of winning northern primaries the others should just drop out. He's the only one with another delegates to realistically overtake Trump.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2016, 11:43:53 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on March 07, 2016, 11:31:37 PM
2-way matchups:

Rubio 46%
Trump 45%

Cruz 48%
Trump 41%

Too bad they didn't test Kasich vs. Trump.

Cruz outperforming Rubio 1 on 1 with Trump... fascinating.
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