FL-Monmouth: TRUMP with modest lead
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  FL-Monmouth: TRUMP with modest lead		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL-Monmouth: TRUMP with modest lead  (Read 2388 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: March 07, 2016, 02:04:58 PM »
Just reported on twitter. No link yet.

Trump      38%
Rubio       30%
Cruz        17%
Kasich     10%
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2016, 02:09:28 PM »
They just announced this on CNN
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2016, 02:11:08 PM »
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c6781dce-1a50-4f9e-bdf3-69388f5a110f.pdf

Link^
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2016, 02:11:56 PM »

Down 8 in your home state still isn't great.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 02:12:59 PM »
Even if Rubio wins Florida, it's kind of a weak, limp victory to me.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2016, 02:13:05 PM »
Wow!!!
Marcobot leads among early voters 48/23.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2016, 02:14:00 PM »

It's not a particularly good one either.  Only 19% is undecided or has a slight preference.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2016, 02:14:09 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2016, 02:39:14 PM by yankeesfan »
"Trump leads Rubio 42/26 among those yet to vote."

This is the current state of the race.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2016, 02:14:56 PM »
Quote from: Castro on March 07, 2016, 02:11:56 PM

Down 8 in your home state still isn't great.

Early vote is big for Rubio per this poll. This poll is actually really solid for him but now he has Cruz hitting him here. Why Cruz is doing that I don't not know, he has no chance in FL.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2016, 02:16:12 PM »
Quote from: Fargobison on March 07, 2016, 02:14:56 PM
Quote from: Castro on March 07, 2016, 02:11:56 PM

Down 8 in your home state still isn't great.

Early vote is big for Rubio per this poll. This poll is actually really solid for him but now he has Cruz hitting him here. Why Cruz is doing that I don't not know, he has no chance in FL.

His campaign wants Rubio out to go one on one with Trump (plus Kasich I guess), even if that means letting Trump win the state.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2016, 02:16:26 PM »
Having Rubio ahead in the early vote, to me, is a sign this poll may be off -  TRUMP always wins among voters who decided way early on, and then people who vote later on realize maybe they shouldn't vote TRUMP.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2016, 02:18:53 PM »
FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2016, 02:19:09 PM »
Head to head is TRUMP 47, Rubio 45.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2016, 02:21:00 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on March 07, 2016, 02:18:53 PM
FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.
But polls haven't been exactly accurate in the past contests. Though I'd agree, being down by 8 isn't a good sign.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2016, 02:21:55 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on March 07, 2016, 02:18:53 PM
FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.

Especially with this factoid.

Quote
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Also it will be interesting to finally see a Republican Primary where the electorate isn't 99.9% white. Have to imagine Rubio is dominating in this poll with the 9% that's Cuban and the 5% that is Other Hispanic.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2016, 02:23:26 PM »
Com'on Florida, you can do it!!! DUMP THE TRUMP!!!!
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2016, 02:25:32 PM »
Rubio's got a better organisation here given it's his home state which probably accounts for the early voting difference. Got to hope the Trump voters turn out on election day and not be swayed by the pummelling he's going to receive over the next week in negative ads.

It's going to be a nail biter. 
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Fargobison
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2016, 02:25:47 PM »
I am just surprised because I had assumed early voting would favor Trump. Plus the poll shows if you are #NeverTrump...Rubio is your guy here. Could be big for strategic voting.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2016, 02:46:37 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on March 07, 2016, 02:21:00 PM
Quote from: The Mikado on March 07, 2016, 02:18:53 PM
FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.
But polls haven't been exactly accurate in the past contests. Though I'd agree, being down by 8 isn't a good sign.

If you look at the polling averages for primaries (caucuses are so hard to poll), Trump usually gets the same % on election. His problem is he gets almost zero undecided voters.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2016, 03:01:57 PM »
Apparently there is a ton of antitrump super PAC spending and it is a closed primary and Trump has lost mojo since Super Tuesday.  I said that his campaign's ultimate test is this period up to the 15th. He needs at least one of OH and FL.   He could lose both.  Is Trump too cheap to put the money in that it requires? He has got away with relying on mostly free medfia to now.  Hubris and cheapness could cost him FL.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2016, 03:25:24 PM »
gotta think this race is closer than the public polling

DJT is actually spending money on ad's there
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The Free North
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2016, 03:40:13 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on March 07, 2016, 02:12:59 PM
Even if Rubio wins Florida, it's kind of a weak, limp victory to me.

Nothing weak about 99 winner take all delegates.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2016, 03:41:27 PM »
Should read:

Trump - 38%
Contested Convention 30%

Come on Rubes!
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standwrand
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2016, 03:55:39 PM »
probably will turn out something like this:

Trump: 37%
Rubio: 35%
Cruz: 21%
Kasich: 7%
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2016, 04:08:17 PM »
If I lived in Florida, I'd consider voting for Trump
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