OH-PPP: TRUMP 38, Kasich 35
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  OH-PPP: TRUMP 38, Kasich 35
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Author Topic: OH-PPP: TRUMP 38, Kasich 35  (Read 5127 times)
The Mikado
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« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2016, 03:47:48 PM »

Kasich likely takes Ohio.

A situation where Trump takes Florida and Kasich takes Ohio eliminates Rubio and creates a very weird new dynamic.

Trump needs to focus on getting his delegate counts up in Illinois and NC and playing defense in Missouri. Kasich winning Ohio isn't actually the worst thing in the world for him, because the Kasich campaign barely exists in most states and it'll take nontrivial effort to turn it into a national, well-funded, staffed campaign like Rubio's.
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mds32
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« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2016, 03:49:10 PM »

I think with these numbers Kasich takes Ohio by 5-6.
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Skye
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« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2016, 04:20:34 PM »

I like how madness will ensue in virtually every scenario. But it'll be fun if Trump beats Kasich and Rubio both in their home states.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2016, 04:22:44 PM »

WTF is going on? Kasich is behind 3, within the margin of error, and the majority are going KASICH IS GOING TO WIN OHIO NO DOUBT. Let's call it for what it is, a toss-up.
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Reluctant Republican
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« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2016, 04:25:06 PM »

There's been talk of Cruz trying to play in Florida to cost Rubio the state and knock him out, is he trying to do the same in Ohio to Kasich?

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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2016, 04:25:51 PM »

WTF is going on? Kasich is behind 3, within the margin of error, and the majority are going KASICH IS GOING TO WIN OHIO NO DOUBT. Let's call it for what it is, a toss-up.

Looking beyond the toplines has many more favorable indicators for Kasich + Trump has underperformed the polls in nearly every state so far.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2016, 04:26:19 PM »

Why do people think Kasich and Rubio share any voters? Rubio is an ultra-conservative hack who wants to make personal attacks and jokes without having any idea what's going on. Kasich is a somewhat conservative and respectable serious person who is relatively tolerant and who is pretty solid in making state policy and likely has an idea regarding federal policies. They should share almost no voter base.

Rubio is more in line with Cruz, but he has less accomplishments and is less able to bring in libertarians but better related to in less religious suburbs. There is much more overlap between those two than Kasich and Rubio. Kasich has more in common with Trump than Rubio.
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Vosem
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« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2016, 04:30:48 PM »

On the ground here in Columbus, I've seen close to zero evidence of any campaign besides Kasich's (though trump held a rally here on Super Tuesday, and I'll be seeing -- and heckling -- him in Cleveland this weekend).
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Donnie
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« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2016, 04:33:10 PM »

A Kasich win in MI would certainly put him over the top here.

MI won't happen. But OH is possible for Kasich.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2016, 04:36:15 PM »

Why do people think Kasich and Rubio share any voters? Rubio is an ultra-conservative hack who wants to make personal attacks and jokes without having any idea what's going on. Kasich is a somewhat conservative and respectable serious person who is relatively tolerant and who is pretty solid in making state policy and likely has an idea regarding federal policies. They should share almost no voter base.

Rubio is more in line with Cruz, but he has less accomplishments and is less able to bring in libertarians but better related to in less religious suburbs. There is much more overlap between those two than Kasich and Rubio. Kasich has more in common with Trump than Rubio.

I've seen reasonable analysis that says different....

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-happen-if-marco-rubio-and-john-kasich-were-one-candidate/
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Skye
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« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2016, 04:38:22 PM »

WTF is going on? Kasich is behind 3, within the margin of error, and the majority are going KASICH IS GOING TO WIN OHIO NO DOUBT. Let's call it for what it is, a toss-up.

Looking beyond the toplines has many more favorable indicators for Kasich + Trump has underperformed the polls in nearly every state so far.
Isn't Trump performing relatively similar to his polling numbers? I thought his opponents were overperforming sometimes.
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swf541
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« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2016, 04:39:30 PM »

WTF is going on? Kasich is behind 3, within the margin of error, and the majority are going KASICH IS GOING TO WIN OHIO NO DOUBT. Let's call it for what it is, a toss-up.

Looking beyond the toplines has many more favorable indicators for Kasich + Trump has underperformed the polls in nearly every state so far.
Isn't Trump performing relatively similar to his polling numbers? I thought his opponents were overperforming sometimes.

Thats what I have thought, besides the junky caucus polling, plus isnt Ohio and open primary?
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« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2016, 04:43:33 PM »

since the link wasn't posted:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html
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Maxwell
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« Reply #38 on: March 07, 2016, 06:41:50 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2016, 06:45:35 PM by Maxwell »

Why do people think Kasich and Rubio share any voters? Rubio is an ultra-conservative hack who wants to make personal attacks and jokes without having any idea what's going on. Kasich is a somewhat conservative and respectable serious person who is relatively tolerant and who is pretty solid in making state policy and likely has an idea regarding federal policies. They should share almost no voter base.

Rubio is more in line with Cruz, but he has less accomplishments and is less able to bring in libertarians but better related to in less religious suburbs. There is much more overlap between those two than Kasich and Rubio. Kasich has more in common with Trump than Rubio.

That's interesting, and though the sample size is tiny, second choices of Rubio are 41% Cruz, 32% Kasich, 6% TRUMP.

The second choice of TRUMP voters are 35% Kasich, 17% Cruz, 8% Rubio.

Particularly troubling numbers for TRUMP are that among those who could still decide, his favorables are even lower - 38/49, while Kasich's are as high as 81/14.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #39 on: March 07, 2016, 06:48:05 PM »

Seems like Rubio supporters are tactically switching to Kasich in Ohio.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2016, 06:49:26 PM »

Trump underperforms his polls more often than not, so I'll take this to mean Kasich is slightly favored. Kasichmentum! Brokered convention here we come!
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MK
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« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2016, 08:36:32 PM »

Trump always underproforms his poll numbers.    Up by 20 actually means hes  winning narrowly and if hes polling like these results  hes actually going to lose narrowly.

I think NV, SC , AL  have been the  only ones he won close to his poll numbers.

Hes losing Ohio.
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RI
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« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2016, 08:44:37 PM »

A Kasich win in MI would certainly put him over the top here.

MI won't happen. But OH is possible for Kasich.

That's hardly written in stone. Momentum is huge in primary races.
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PeteB
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« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2016, 08:49:46 PM »

If Kasich would somehow manage to win MI (admittedly a very difficult task, with Trump's early voting head start), he will easily sweep OH and may actually have a shot at winning IL!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2016, 08:53:36 PM »


Just be glad that I just added this to my polling thread.

Oh, thank GOD!

Either way, it looks glorious.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2016, 09:54:01 PM »

fav/unfav % among GOP primary voters:

Kasich 70/22% for +48%
Trump 48/44% for +4%
Cruz 40/45% for -5%
Rubio 33/51% for -18%

3-way matchup:
Trump 46%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 20%

2-way matchups:
Cruz 41%
Rubio 32%

Trump 47%
Cruz 41%

Kasich 55%
Trump 40%

Trump 52%
Rubio 36%

Cruz favorability ratio among…
Kasich supporters: -17%
Rubio supporters: +29%
Trump supporters: -34%

Kasich favorability ratio among…
Cruz supporters: +48%
Rubio supporters: +42%
Trump supporters: +14%

Rubio favorability ratio among…
Cruz supporters: +/-0
Kasich supporters: -1%
Trump supporters: -58% (lol)

Trump favorability ratio among…
Cruz supporters: -44%
Kasich supporters: -45%
Rubio supporters: -79% (lol)

So Rubio’s poor favorability #s are heavily driven by the fact that Trump supporters don’t like him.  Trump, though, is disliked (by at least a 40 point margin) by the supporters of all three of his rivals.  Not good for his chances of winning new converts if one of the other candidates drops out.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #46 on: March 07, 2016, 11:47:41 PM »

Looks like Rubio dropping out will give Trump no new voters.  It also looks like (along with the head to heads in Michigan) that Cruz is in a good position to fight Trump 1 on 1.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2016, 09:21:43 AM »

So Kasich is at nearly +50 favorability yet is losing to someone who's not even at +5? This doesn't add up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2016, 11:36:01 AM »

So Kasich is at nearly +50 favorability yet is losing to someone who's not even at +5? This doesn't add up.

Uh, that's been the trend for basically the entire race so far. The people who see Trump favorably really like him and are very committed.

That said, with the gap this large, I still expect Kasich to win.
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« Reply #49 on: March 09, 2016, 11:40:56 AM »

Good, Kasich wins and we get a four colored state map.
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