ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41%

[Mr. Morden]

ABC/WaPo national poll, conducted March 3-6:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-clinton-leads-trump-aided-by-obama-coalition/2016/03/08/40dd6698-e575-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Yep, this is going to be a virtual repeat of 2012, except far, far nastier.

Trump will go Trump on Hillary, and Democrats will go nuclear on Trump. Hillary is polling somewhat similar to Obama in late-2011/early-2012, while Trump has fallen far from Romney's levels (even more interesting once you remember that both Trump and Hillary have incumbent-esque name recognition).


I would bet good money that 2016 will go down as one of the nastiest elections in modern American history.

[Devils30]

"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

This is exactly where the GOP problem is. They win basically the same margin as 2012 with non-college whites but would get destroyed in rich suburban educated areas.

[Mr. Morden]

Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

Do we know what that split was in past elections?  The exit polls give crosstabs for education level, but I'm not sure they ever give crosstabs for education level for white voters only.

[Sir Mohamed]

What the Trumpster would say?

“Just a poll came out, where I beat her she beats me pretty easily”.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The Ramblin' Racist isn't coming within 10 pts of Hillary when it all goes down.  Even if he "speaks his mind!".

[Mr. Morden]

Bumping this thread to point out that the WaPo has a new story out that notes that their polling shows Trump as the least popular US presidential candidate since David Duke:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/21/the-last-presidential-candidate-who-was-as-unpopular-as-donald-trump-david-duke/

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[RFayette]

"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

This is exactly where the GOP problem is. They win basically the same margin as 2012 with non-college whites but would get destroyed in rich suburban educated areas.

Clinton needs to take nothing for granted about this.  Trump could mean a seismic shift in the electorate. He will be investing in Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc., so Hillary needs to be prepared to counter with investments in NC, AZ, the Atlanta suburbs, and maybe even Texas if she's doing well enough with college whites and oil and gas remains as hostile to Trump as it has been in the primaries.  

Agree that NC and AZ are smart investments for Hillary, but GA is not - demographically, the state was great for Trump in the primaries and it will be solid for him in the general.  Not all of suburbia in Georgia is even hostile to Trump, especially the exurbs.  As far as your suggested states for Trump, Wisconsin is a terrible fit for him based on recent polling, though the others are potential opportunities.  To be honest though, this is a game Trump will have to play the defensive on.  Hold down Arizona/Utah (!), peel back alienated white moderate suburban voters, and mend whatever bridges he can with Hispanics.  The only good news for Trump is that he has flexibility to change far more than Hillary does given his profile/nature, so we'll see what he makes of his tricky situation.

[Adam Griffin]

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This is factually inaccurate, unless you want to go all MoE or unless you're talking about 2008.

"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

According to Teixeira, the split among white working-class/college-educated voters in 2012 was 44/56. It's likely that the latter will increase in size at expense of the former, but let's just assume they hold steady and then plug in those numbers above:

Share of White Vote:
Clinton: (52*0.56)+(33*0.44) = 43.6%
Trump: (37*0.56)+(57*0.44) = 45.8%

Clinton's winning 44% of the white vote in comparison to Trump's 46% in this poll. That's a far cry from Obama 2012 with 39-40% and Romney with 59-60%. Getting even close to that (with 10% of the electorate undecided, no less) potentially puts both the House and the Senate in danger of falling, as well as may open up potential pathways down the Atlantic and in the Southwest.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Just to follow-up with the math above, this is a scenario from RCP's PV/EV calculator (built around 2008/2012 performance by state). In this, I give Trump 80% of the undecided white vote remaining, which results in Trump winning 54% of the white vote; Clinton 46% (it's a two-way model). I then decrease non-white support for Democrats by a modest one point and leave turnout rates exactly where they were.

 

If you tweak black numbers to more closely resemble non-Obama candidates (both support and turnout), then GA & MO flip back into the R column - but both of those races are won by Trump by less than 2 points. That still leaves a 358-180 Clinton PV victory and a 11.6-point win in the PV.

[Reaganfan]

^^^ Just to follow-up with the math above, this is a scenario from RCP's PV/EV calculator (built around 2008/2012 performance by state). In this, I give Trump 80% of the undecided white vote remaining, which results in Trump winning 54% of the white vote; Clinton 46% (it's a two-way model). I then decrease non-white support for Democrats by a modest one point and leave turnout rates exactly where they were.

 

If you tweak black numbers to more closely resemble non-Obama candidates (both support and turnout), then GA & MO flip back into the R column - but both of those races are won by Trump by less than 2 points. That still leaves a 358-180 Clinton PV victory and a 11.6-point win in the PV.

Wow you really think turnout is gonna be that high?

[Holmes]

Wow you really think turnout is gonna be that high?

Those percentages were what turnout was in 2012. Adam Griffin didn't tweak the turnout percentages. I can guarantee you Hispanic turnout will be higher if Trump is the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo has a further breakdown of Trump's unpopularity....he's in negative territory with every demographic group:

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL 29% with white women.

[Holmes]

That's a large discrepancy between white men and white women.

[pbrower2a]

LOL also at the figures for white college graduates. Republicans used to have them as a core vote.

...Hillary Clinton could have a map close to, of all things, an Eisenhower victory. I have no indication of the Upper Plains... but considering what the educational levels are there, she might do well there.

Obama got an Eisenhower-like win except for Mormon and ranch country in 2008.