ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41% (user search)
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  ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41% (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41%  (Read 1676 times)
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,959
United States


« on: March 21, 2016, 11:25:18 PM »

"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

This is exactly where the GOP problem is. They win basically the same margin as 2012 with non-college whites but would get destroyed in rich suburban educated areas.

Clinton needs to take nothing for granted about this.  Trump could mean a seismic shift in the electorate. He will be investing in Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc., so Hillary needs to be prepared to counter with investments in NC, AZ, the Atlanta suburbs, and maybe even Texas if she's doing well enough with college whites and oil and gas remains as hostile to Trump as it has been in the primaries.  

Agree that NC and AZ are smart investments for Hillary, but GA is not - demographically, the state was great for Trump in the primaries and it will be solid for him in the general.  Not all of suburbia in Georgia is even hostile to Trump, especially the exurbs.  As far as your suggested states for Trump, Wisconsin is a terrible fit for him based on recent polling, though the others are potential opportunities.  To be honest though, this is a game Trump will have to play the defensive on.  Hold down Arizona/Utah (!), peel back alienated white moderate suburban voters, and mend whatever bridges he can with Hispanics.  The only good news for Trump is that he has flexibility to change far more than Hillary does given his profile/nature, so we'll see what he makes of his tricky situation.
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