CA: Smith Johnson Research: Trump up, lots undecided

[RI]

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-live-updates-republican-debate-trailguide-03102016-htmlstory.html#4316

Trump 25
Cruz 19.6
Rubio 17.6
Kasich 15.4
(Undecided 22.4)

[yankeesfan]

This is the junkiest poll I've ever seen.  That amount of undecided (22.4%) is so much that the following result is actually a mathematical possibility.

Trump 25
Cruz 25
Rubio 25
Kasich 25

[jimrtex]

This is the junkiest poll I've ever seen.  That amount of undecided (22.4%) is so much that the following result is actually a mathematical possibility.

Trump 25
Cruz 25
Rubio 25
Kasich 25

It is 3 months to the California primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

I really doubt that Cruz would have a chance in CA. Against any of the other three candidates.

[Vosem]

Considering the demographics of the CA GOP, Cruz seems to be to be favored. (Indeed, considering how undecideds break against _trump and they are 22% of this poll, this can basically be taken as a Cruz lead).

[Mr. Morden]

While this poll's a week old now, WaPo does have some additional info on it, namely the regional breakdown:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/the-republican-race-may-come-down-to-california-heres-how-complicated-that-would-be/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

While this poll's a week old now, WaPo does have some additional info on it, namely the regional breakdown:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/the-republican-race-may-come-down-to-california-heres-how-complicated-that-would-be/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

Proud to be from the Central Valley.

I'd love to see updated numbers without Rubio.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kasich is strongest in my area. That's not bad.

[Ronnie]

I'm surprised that Cruz is stronger than Kasich overall in LA.  It probably comes down to the CD; I would be willing to guess that Kasich is strongest against Trump in places like CA-33 and maybe CA-37, but weaker than Cruz in central and east LA districts.

[Sbane]

The best part of the state for Trump will be the Inland Empire. How he does in LA, OC and SD will determine who wins. Bay Area is a wild card but I'm glad to see Trump doesn't have much strength in the Central Valley.

[Ronnie]

The best part of the state for Trump will be the Inland Empire. How he does in LA, OC and SD will determine who wins. Bay Area is a wild card but I'm glad to see Trump doesn't have much strength in the Central Valley.

It's hard for me to imagine Kasich not sweeping most of the Bay Area.  It doesn't seem like either Trump or Cruz would have any appeal there.

[President Johnson]

I think TRUMP should easily match 40% in California in a three way race and beat Rafael head to head convincingly.

[Sbane]

The best part of the state for Trump will be the Inland Empire. How he does in LA, OC and SD will determine who wins. Bay Area is a wild card but I'm glad to see Trump doesn't have much strength in the Central Valley.

It's hard for me to imagine Kasich not sweeping most of the Bay Area.  It doesn't seem like either Trump or Cruz would have any appeal there.

There's not a lot of Republicans in the Bay Area but the few that are there seem pretty conservative. They voted for Donnely over Kashkari. The type of people you think Kasich will do well with don't vote in Republican primaries. Perhaps it will be different this year.