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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Stuck with Sanders, Apocrypha)
  1948 and 1968
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« on: June 02, 2005, 06:46:03 am »

1) Had Strom Thurmond not ran as State's Rights candidate, who do you think would have won the four states he carried?

Alabama
Louisiana
Mississippi
South Carolina

2) Had George Wallace not ran as an American Independent, who do you think would have won the five states he carried?

Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi

Dave
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True Democrat
true democrat
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2005, 05:26:21 pm »

1) Had Strom Thurmond not ran as State's Rights candidate, who do you think would have won the four states he carried?

Alabama
Louisiana
Mississippi
South Carolina

2) Had George Wallace not ran as an American Independent, who do you think would have won the five states he carried?

Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi

Dave

Truman would have carried all of them.  For Wallace, I think Nixon probably would have won all of them.  Arkansas could possibly be Humphrey, but probably not.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2005, 06:24:29 am »

1948 - Dems, easy.
1968 - very much up in the air.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2005, 09:21:49 am »

1948 (pre-civil rights) - All states carried by Thurmond would have gone with Truman

1968 (post-civil rights) - All states carried carried by Wallace would have gone with Nixon with the possible exception of Arkansas; while, I believe that Wallace's candidacy helped Humphrey win Texas

Of course, Wallace's candidacy still had an impact beyond the South. Some large states, like California, Illinois and Ohio (all carried by Nixon) might (and it's big might) have been won by Humphrey in the absence of a Wallace candidacy

Dave
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2005, 06:04:28 pm »

1948
These 4 states would have gone for Truman.
In 1948, the Democratic "Solid South" was not about to go for a Republican.

1968
These 5 states would have gone for Nixon.
These states would not have gone for the very liberal Humphrey.  As well, they would have liked Nixon's "law and order" stand in 1968.
 
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A18
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2005, 06:11:06 pm »

How do you think the Wallace vote would have split nationally had he not been in the race?
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2005, 06:17:32 pm »

How do you think the Wallace vote would have split nationally had he not been in the race?

The Wallace vote would have split roughly 70% Nixon, 30% Humphrey.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2005, 06:18:30 pm »

1948:

No question Truman would have carried them. 1948 was the last hurrah for the Solid South.

1968:

Nixon would ahve won all of them, but Arkansas may have voted for Humphrey. Depends on the vote of the Unions. Also, Wallace's withdrawal or not running would help HUmphrey immensely with Union Workers and Blue Collar Americans. It would assure him Missouri at least, perhaps Ohio, Illinois, and New Jersey, and with that, the election.

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2005, 05:30:43 am »

Actually, 1968 depends very much on who Wallace would have supported, who local Dixiecrat worthies would have supported etc. A 70-30 or even 80-20 split for Nixon is feasible, but so is a 70-30 split for Humphrey. And that's just the South. I'm pretty sure Humphrey would have gained slightly more votes in the North.
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