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  MI: Stabenow leads Michigan poll; Granholm could face fight
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Author Topic: MI: Stabenow leads Michigan poll; Granholm could face fight  (Read 3297 times)
King
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« on: June 02, 2005, 10:57:47 am »

From the Detriot News:

A statewide poll gives Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow a lead of nearly 30 points over four potential Republican challengers in the 2006 election, but indicates that Gov. Jennifer Granholm has lost public support and could face a tough re-election campaign.
Stabenow "is in a better position for re-election" than Granholm, according to an EPIC/MRA poll of 600 likely voters by Lansing pollster Ed Sarpolus.

By a slight margin, the strongest candidate against Stabenow was the Rev. Keith Butler of Southfield, a former Detroit councilman and founding pastor of the Word of Faith church in Southfield. Of those polled, 57 percent said they would vote for Stabenow and 30 percent for Butler.

Stabenow's lead was 59-30 over businesswoman Jane Abraham, wife of former GOP U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham of Michigan, defeated by Stabenow in 2000. Stabenow led 57-28 over the Rev. Jerry Zandstra, program director of a Grand Rapids religion-oriented think tank; and 57-28 over Troy industrial engineer Bart Baron.

Of the four, all but Abraham have said they will seek the GOP nomination. Abraham said Wednesday she is still exploring and is "in no rush" to decide.

Republican State Chairman Saul Anuzis discounted the poll numbers because "it is very, very early" in the 2006 election cycle and the four Republicans have "no name ID" at this stage.

Stabenow had a positive-negative job approval rating of 54-33, compared to 52-47 for Granholm and 44-55 for President George W. Bush. While the May 22-26 poll did not match Granholm against specific Republicans, Sarpolus said it does not bode well for her that 62 percent of respondents said Michigan is "on the wrong track," while 24 percent opted for "right direction."

In an EPIC/MRA poll six months ago, 42 percent of respondents said Michigan was on the wrong track. Sarpolus said only 26 percent declared they "will vote to re-elect Granholm," while 29 percent will vote to replace her and 29 percent "will consider someone else."

Granholm press secretary Liz Boyd said the governor "understands the concern of those polled" about the economy, and awaits legislative action on "her comprehensive plan" to spur job creation.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2005, 10:59:12 am »

MI Governor looks like a possible pickup for the GOP as of now.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2005, 11:17:28 am »

Well, if the GOP can actually get a good candidate, which I'm not so sure about.  Obviously, Candice Miller is the best candidate for anything statewide, but my bet is that she's still thinking that Carl Levin will retire in 2008 and leave an open seat then.

Stabenow looks safe, though, to me.
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Ben Meyers
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2005, 12:04:42 pm »

Granholm used to be enormously popular, and she seems to still have a group of base support.

If the Republicans provide a tough challenger, such as Congresswoman Miller, it will be very close.  Otherwise, except a Granholm victory between 55-45 and 60-40.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2005, 12:06:32 pm »

Why is Levin thinking of retiring? He's not that old.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2005, 12:39:21 pm »

Why is Levin thinking of retiring? He's not that old.

Never said he was.  He will be 74 in 2008, btw, not old (like Byrd), but not young either.

But that's been one of the reasons among people for a while now as to the reason why Miller so far is challenging neither Stabenow, nor Granholm.

Winning open seats is inherently much easier than beating incumbents in the Senate for a whole host of reasons.
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MaC
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2005, 02:48:02 pm »

Granholm used to be enormously popular, and she seems to still have a group of base support.

If the Republicans provide a tough challenger, such as Congresswoman Miller, it will be very close.  Otherwise, except a Granholm victory between 55-45 and 60-40.

One thing I actually agree with you on.
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ian
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2005, 03:01:48 pm »

I hope Granholm keeps her job; she's one of my favorite politicians!
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2005, 03:04:57 pm »

Why does this article quote a 6-month-old EPIC/MRA poll? How useless.

Granholm could be in trouble, if the Michigan GOP can find a half-decent opponent, which they seem to be failing to do.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2005, 03:12:31 pm »
« Edited: June 02, 2005, 03:15:03 pm by Senator Sam Spade »

Why does this article quote a 6-month-old EPIC/MRA poll? How useless.

Granholm could be in trouble, if the Michigan GOP can find a half-decent opponent, which they seem to be failing to do.

This poll is new, conducted from May 22-26 by EPIC/MRA.

http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw116623_20050602.htm

Fwiw, EPIC/MRA seems to be the Michigan polling firm that leans too far to the left, whereas the Detroit News/Mitchell Research one leans too far to the right.
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Alcon
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2005, 03:16:44 pm »

Why does this article quote a 6-month-old EPIC/MRA poll? How useless.

Granholm could be in trouble, if the Michigan GOP can find a half-decent opponent, which they seem to be failing to do.

This poll is new, conducted from May 22-26 by EPIC/MRA.

http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw116623_20050602.htm

Fwiw, EPIC/MRA seems to be the Michigan polling firm that leans too far to the left, whereas the Detroit News/Mitchell Research one leans too far to the right.

They do, however, quote a six-month-old EPIC/MRA poll at the end to reference Granholm's re-elect numbers. Six-month-old information isn't really useful.
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nick
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2005, 03:23:48 pm »

Im guessing the high unemployment rate in Michigan is what's killing Granholm.  Why isn't this affecting Stabenow, too?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2005, 03:32:43 pm »

Im guessing the high unemployment rate in Michigan is what's killing Granholm.  Why isn't this affecting Stabenow, too?

Probably because she's a national, as opposed to statewide, politician would be my guess.

As noted by Gerry Daly, at Daly Thoughts (one of Alcon and mine's favorite sites), her problem seems to be stemming from a disconnect from independent women voters, oddly enough, who give her a 37% approval rating and a 58% disapproval rating.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2005, 07:51:01 pm »
« Edited: June 02, 2005, 07:53:01 pm by The Vorlon »

A senate poll this far out with an incumbant versus compartively unknown challengers is well... worthless more or less.

A 54% approval rating,, in the absense of anybody campaigning againsty her is pretty borderline.

Not brutal, but a long way from solid.

Michigan is a state where the tie goes to the Democrat. 

Stabenow is a very middle of the pack Senator and campaigner.

A strong GOP candidate has a decent shot, and middle of the pack GOP candidtate suffers a modest loss...

I expect there to be a modest anti-GOP tide in the 2006 midterms, so Stabenow remains a likely Dem "hold" in the Senate.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2005, 08:17:44 pm »

EPIC/MRA isn't really that accurate in 2002 a few  days before the governor election they had granholm up by 9% she won by less the 4%  51-47.

They also way beack in 1990 had current Governor Blanchard winning by 14% the day before the elction he LOST BY 1%
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Alcon
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« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2005, 08:22:08 pm »

EPIC/MRA isn't really that accurate in 2002 a few  days before the governor election they had granholm up by 9% she won by less the 4%  51-47.

What was the MoE? State races are hard to call. On state polls, I generally multiply the MoE by around 1.5 to find reasonable bounds.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2005, 08:40:58 pm »

Here's the link to a poll released on 10-25-02  with Granholm up 8% with a margin of error of 5%. Although i believe there was another poll done a few days before the elction with Granholm +9% but i can't find it, but it donesn't really matter this is close enough.

http://www.detnews.com/2002/politics/0210/25/a01-622158.htm
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2005, 08:46:04 pm »

so yes if you consider that it's hard to poll states (personally I've heard this before but don't know much about polling) and multiply it by 1.5 the poll was closer 5x1.5 = 7.5  8-7.5= .5% Granholm by .5%ish
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2005, 04:08:41 am »

Republicans need to find a really good candidate to combat the expected open seat in Michigan in 08 which could help the Republicans make Michigan more of a fight than in 2004.
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