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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL  (Read 3420 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 13, 2016, 08:11:30 am »
« edited: March 13, 2016, 08:14:36 am by Mr. Morden »

NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL, IL, and OH:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-trump-ahead-florida-illinois-kasich-leads-ohio-n537356












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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 08:15:51 am »

Damn ... Sanders is narrowing that gap quite quickly in IL and MO.

OH seems really stable though (but maybe the polls are wrong there like in MI).
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 08:16:52 am »

I don't really get how IL is better than OH for Sanders.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2016, 08:20:54 am »

Florida:

blacks:
Clinton 77%
Sanders 20%

Latinos:
Clinton 51%
Sanders 46%

Illinois:

blacks:
Clinton 67%
Sanders 28%

Latinos:
Sanders 64%
Clinton 30%

Ohio:

blacks:
Clinton 72%
Sanders 24%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2016, 08:22:43 am »

Good to see that Northern Blacks are not as stubbornly for Hillary as the Southern ones.
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MK
Mike Keller
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2016, 08:29:08 am »

Every single poll shows Rubio down  by 20+ . My god what did he do to piss off people in FL.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2016, 08:34:18 am »

Every single poll shows Rubio down  by 20+ . My god what did he do to piss off people in FL.
There are two tranches of FL polls. One in the 6-12 point range, the other in the 18-25 point range with Cruz challenging for second.

Florida is Trump's second home more or less. Rubio also hasn't shown up to work in the Senate much. Can't say I blame them for not backing their junior Senator.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2016, 08:43:54 am »

Good to see that Northern Blacks are not as stubbornly for Hillary as the Southern ones.
In MI, Sanders won 26% in Detroit and 27% in tiny Royal Oak Township, which is about 98% Black.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2016, 08:48:35 am »

Interesting.  These polls are from March 4-10 while the YouGov are from March 9-11". Make of that what you will.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2016, 08:50:52 am »

Interesting.  These polls are from March 4-10 while the YouGov are from March 9-11". Make of that what you will.

Clinton collapsing.
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MK
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2016, 08:58:51 am »

Interesting that Rubio is actually talking about not voting for Trump in Nov.....       well it wouldn't be the 1st time hes missed a vote.
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A Perez
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2016, 09:11:17 am »

Interesting.  These polls are from March 4-10 while the YouGov are from March 9-11". Make of that what you will.

Clinton collapsing.
Bernie is gonna win 1 out of 5 stars = the woman who will win 4 states is collapsing. Yup.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2016, 10:52:18 am »

I don't really get how IL is better than OH for Sanders.

Yeah, it's pretty odd.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2016, 10:54:00 am »

Interesting that almost all of the most recent polls have Trump up by around 20 points in Florida.  If he actually wins by that margin, I imagine he'll carry every county, except maybe Miami-Dade.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2016, 11:17:39 am »

The results for this poll were conducted from March 4th-10th, for what it's worth. It's possible that's why they're more favorable for Clinton than the YouGov poll numbers, but I'm still skeptical of those IL numbers, and I'm not buying Clinton up by 20 in OH.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2016, 11:30:18 am »

Every single poll shows Rubio down  by 20+ . My god what did he do to piss off people in FL.

Rubio has been a terrible Senator and Florida being the cultural love child of New York and Alabama make it a natural Trump state.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2016, 11:34:03 am »

The results for this poll were conducted from March 4th-10th, for what it's worth. It's possible that's why they're more favorable for Clinton than the YouGov poll numbers, but I'm still skeptical of those IL numbers, and I'm not buying Clinton up by 20 in OH.

Or it could be that Yougov has always had a tilt Sanders lean so far this cycle.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2016, 11:39:57 am »

What is it about the lack of polling in Missouri?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2016, 12:33:53 pm »

The results for this poll were conducted from March 4th-10th, for what it's worth. It's possible that's why they're more favorable for Clinton than the YouGov poll numbers, but I'm still skeptical of those IL numbers, and I'm not buying Clinton up by 20 in OH.

Yeah I doubt Clinton wins Ohio (IF she wins) by more than 2-3%. Then again, I doubt Bernie has a much bigger margin than that, either.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2016, 12:37:37 pm »

Been predicting a Bernie win in my home state for about a week now, and now we get polls showing him closing in. We'll see.
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Vosem
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2016, 12:59:15 pm »

Interesting that Rubio is actually talking about not voting for Trump in Nov.....       well it wouldn't be the 1st time hes missed a vote.

Oh no, our fraction of the Republican Party will vote against him. That's how he'll be denied the Presidency.
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Castro
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2016, 01:23:51 pm »

Been predicting a Bernie win in my home state for about a week now, and now we get polls showing him closing in. We'll see.

I wonder if any media will spin it as Bernie winning Clinton's home (birth) state.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2016, 01:28:08 pm »

Interesting that Rubio is actually talking about not voting for Trump in Nov.....       well it wouldn't be the 1st time hes missed a vote.

Oh no, our fraction of the Republican Party will vote against him. That's how he'll be denied the Presidency.

So... you'll be voting for Hillary in 2016?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2016, 01:39:17 pm »

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.
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Castro
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« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2016, 02:30:12 pm »

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.

Well, if this year is anything like 2008 demographics wise, there should be about 19% non-black/non-white voters (Latino+Other). If Sanders gets the same percentages of Blacks and Whites in Illinois that he got in Michigan (56% and 28%), he'll need about 56% of the (Latino+Other) vote as well to win.
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