FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL

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2 polls showing Illinois closer than Ohio... that really doesn't seem right.  Then again, there have been bigger surprises in this race.

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Acc. to Cross-tabs - 58% in Illinois, 26% in Blacks, 16% in Hispanics.

Michigan had 14.2% Black as does Illinois overall. Michigan had 19-20% final Black vote.

In this poll Black Vote is 26% & much higher than (say) Michigan.

So the likelihood of under-estimating the Black Voting is very limited IMO.

Ah my bad, was looking at the wrong section.

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I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

Interesting interpretation, considering that out of all recent polling of the March 15th states, there's only one poll that shows him ahead (this IL poll).

Not saying its impossible by any means, but it seems like its far from a statistical certainty.

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I dunno, I wouldn't be too bothered by a 2 point loss in IL if Clinton got a 9 point win in OH and a 28 point win in FL. 

It depends on how NC and MO work out, but there would be a good chance that Clinton gains over 100 delegates from the 15th with those results.

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Can someone explain to me how yougov has trump barely beating cruz in illinois, yet tied with kasich in ohio, while other polls have kasich up in ohio, and trump up by around 10 in illinois?

There's also been several polls with Kasich down in Ohio, so this is par for the course for a more or less tossup race.  The only surprise is that Cruz is doing so well in Illinois.  It could be that Cruz is having a last minute surge, it could also be a bad poll.

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Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

How about you vote like a real person and not a Mitt-programmed robot?

You must know by now I will do what ever it takes to prevent Trump from ever being President. My goal is to stop Trump at all cost

I would say vote for Cruz.  I don't think either has any shot in Florida, but Rubio needs to drop out as soon as possible so that Cruz and Kasich can consolidate as much of the vote as possible.  A third place finish in Florida would guarantee that.