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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FL/IL/OH-Marist/NBC News: Dems lead in IL, FL - OH mixed
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-Marist/NBC News: Dems lead in IL, FL - OH mixed  (Read 3518 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 13, 2016, 11:09:14 am »

With Hillary:

Img


With Bernie:

Img


...

Quote
54% of Illinois residents, 48% of Floridians, and 45% of Ohio residents approve of the job performance of President Barack Obama.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 11:30:38 am »

#Trumpmostelectable
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Ljube
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 11:34:21 am »
« Edited: March 13, 2016, 11:37:15 am by Ljube »

General election polls this early are trash, but this one is worse than usual polls.
Clinton vs TRUMP 48-42 and Clinton vs Kasich 36-57. Impossible.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2016, 11:41:03 am »

General election polls this early are trash, but this one is worse than usual polls.
Clinton vs TRUMP 48-42 and Clinton vs Kasich 36-57. Impossible.

Controversial radical guy fares worse than popular governor? What are the odds!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2016, 12:27:13 pm »

More than 60% of Millenials voting for Clinton in the general?
But I thought only Sanders would make them vote Democratic, not that lying, corporate sellout bitch!!!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2016, 12:33:23 pm »

Haha, Rubio losing Florida to Clinton.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2016, 12:46:53 pm »

A 51-49 ELECTION, probably wins the Senate and a 52/48 election will bring in the House.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2016, 12:57:17 pm »

A 51-49 ELECTION, probably wins the Senate and a 52/48 election will bring in the House.
I missed your posts.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2016, 01:03:38 pm »

General election polls this early are trash, but this one is worse than usual polls.
Clinton vs TRUMP 48-42 and Clinton vs Kasich 36-57. Impossible.

Controversial radical guy fares worse than popular governor? What are the odds!

Favorite Son effect, and Trump/Cruz/Rubio are turkeys.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2016, 02:00:33 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2016, 02:02:46 pm by EliteLX »

Look at the "early polls suck" friends scramble for answers.

These numbers are only getting worse from here on out. Trump had never been electable. He isn't even going be able to even come to Romney margins in Florida. You all have your head so far up your asses it kills.

"B-b-b muh WORKING CLASS WHITES"
"B-b-b muh FLORIDA"
"B-b-b muh PENNSYLVANIA"
"B-b-b muh OHIO"

Wrong x4.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2016, 02:09:30 pm »

Trump should be concerned about his Va numbers, that in itself will cost him the election.  But, he should be fine in FL
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whitesox130
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2016, 02:34:41 pm »

I know early polls aren't very predictive, but it's interesting to see Cruz only losing Illinois to Hillary by 11.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2016, 02:40:31 pm »

Trump should be concerned about his Va numbers, that in itself will cost him the election.  But, he should be fine in FL

I think Trump would win PA before VA. Going to be a bloodbath in NoVa for him.
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Sbane
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2016, 02:49:42 pm »

I know early polls aren't very predictive, but it's interesting to see Cruz only losing Illinois to Hillary by 11.

This election is the Republicans to lose, and they seem intent on losing it. Any non-Trump Republican should, at the very least, be able to win a Bush '04 style victory over Hillary (could be bigger with Kasich I think). Trump will lose and he will lose big, although he might get enough racist non-voters to come out so that the margin won't be too embarrassing.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2016, 02:56:15 pm »

I know early polls aren't very predictive, but it's interesting to see Cruz only losing Illinois to Hillary by 11.
Rubio, Kasich, and even Cruz all benefit from looking reasonable and measured in comparison to Trump. That wouldn't last in a general election, certainly not for Cruz.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2016, 03:22:39 pm »

Trump should be concerned about his Va numbers, that in itself will cost him the election.  But, he should be fine in FL

I think Trump would win PA before VA. Going to be a bloodbath in NoVa for him.

Trump was losing Pa by 5 points
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Ebowed
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2016, 05:12:55 pm »

More than 60% of Millenials voting for Clinton in the general?
But I thought only Sanders would make them vote Democratic, not that lying, corporate sellout bitch!!!

The assertion isn't that millienials would vote Republican against Clinton, it's that they would turn out in lower numbers.  Which isn't exactly an outlandish prediction.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2016, 05:25:30 pm »

Trump cannot seal the deal for GOP in either OH or FL, which is the main reason why McCain & Romney lost.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2016, 05:27:37 pm »

These polls are probably an accurate reflection of where things stand now, yes. But TRUMP working his magic against Hillary could well change things.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2016, 05:29:05 pm »

More than 60% of Millenials voting for Clinton in the general?
But I thought only Sanders would make them vote Democratic, not that lying, corporate sellout bitch!!!

The assertion isn't that millienials would vote Republican against Clinton, it's that they would turn out in lower numbers.  Which isn't exactly an outlandish prediction.

Just like he makes them turnout in record numbers in the primaries. Roll Eyes
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standwrand
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2016, 06:31:18 pm »

A 51-49 ELECTION, probably wins the Senate and a 52/48 election will bring in the House.

lol ok, a 55-35 election wouldn't flip the House for the dems because of gerrymandering
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2016, 07:45:05 pm »

Looking at the crosstabs, unsurprisingly, the group where Trump underperforms the most compared to his GOP rivals is Latinos.

In Florida, for example, the poll has Clinton beating Rubio by just 5 points among Latinos.  But she beats Cruz by 15 and Trump by 27.  Among Illinois Latinos, Clinton leads Cruz by 26, and leads Trump by 54.

Trump also generates the largest gender gap.  In Ohio, for example, Trump leads Clinton by 11 among men, but she leads him by 21 among women, for a 32 point differential between the sexes (which I'm assuming would be some kind of record).
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Virginiá
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« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2016, 11:27:45 pm »

A 51-49 ELECTION, probably wins the Senate and a 52/48 election will bring in the House.

lol ok, a 55-35 election wouldn't flip the House for the dems because of gerrymandering

55-35 for House or presidential vote?

A 7% - 8% House popular vote winning margin for Democrats (so like 54-46 D) would win Democrats the House. Gerrymandering is not an unbreakable wall, it just means they need to get more votes in those rigged districts than before. Thus, if they win big, they end up carrying it.

And if you meant presidential vote, then considering in 2012 only 5% split their tickets, the House PV vote wouldn't be that different.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2016, 12:14:11 am »

Ohio is the state to look at, if Ohio, rather than CO becomes,the bellweather, we are lookung at a Lean Dem year.
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2016, 03:24:57 am »

Look at the "early polls suck" friends scramble for answers.

These numbers are only getting worse from here on out. Trump had never been electable. He isn't even going be able to even come to Romney margins in Florida. You all have your head so far up your asses it kills.

"B-b-b muh WORKING CLASS WHITES"
"B-b-b muh FLORIDA"
"B-b-b muh PENNSYLVANIA"
"B-b-b muh OHIO"

Wrong x4.

Here is a March poll from 2008. Wow! McCain beating Obama by 11 in Florida!

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220080316108
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