Quinnipiac: Final polls for FL, OH

[PeteB]

Kasich 38, Trump 38, Cruz 16, Rubio 3

Last QU poll had Trump at 38 and Kasich at 32 so this is a 6 point change. Still very very close!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-4077.html

[Tender Branson]

FL:

Clinton 60, Sanders 34
Trump 46, Rubio 22, Cruz 14, Kasich 10

OH:

Clinton 51, Sanders 46
Kasich 38, Trump 38, Cruz 16, Rubio 3

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll

[PeteB]

It looks like it's all about Trump here!

Trump 46, Rubio 22, Cruz 14, Kasich 10

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

[Mr. Morden]

FL:

Clinton 60, Sanders 34
Trump 46, Rubio 22, Cruz 14, Kasich 10

OH:

Clinton 51, Sanders 46
Kasich 38, Trump 38, Cruz 16, Rubio 3

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll

That's the wrong URL.  Should be:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2332

[Mr. Morden]

Trump leads among all demos in Florida.

In Ohio, who leads among…?

Tea Party: Cruz
White Born-again Evangelical: Kasich/Trump tie
very conservative: Trump
somewhat conservative: Trump
moderate: Kasich
men: Trump
women: Kasich
college degree: Kasich
no college degree: Trump

[Gass3268]

Tuesday is going to be so fun!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Virtually identical margin to pro-Hillary PPP, and this is a pro-Bernie pollster. Troubling, as Sanders needs OH.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-13

Summary:

Kasich:	38%
Trump:	38%
Cruz:	16%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-13

Summary:

Trump:	46%
Rubio:	22%
Cruz:	14%
Kasich:	10%
Other:	2%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-13

Summary:

Clinton:	60%
Sanders:	34%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-13

Summary:

Clinton:	51%
Sanders:	46%
Other:	-1%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Volrath50]

Given that Trump tends to under perform his polls (although, not always), I think Ohio can safely be considered to be lean or likely Kasich.

[Chaddyr23]

Please Ohio deny Trump those delegates!!!

[Ronnie]

The problem with the FL poll is that it doesn't seem to retrieve respondents from voter rolls:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/fl03142016_demos_O33umkp.pdf

I don't imagine Trump is in nearly so strong of a position as he appears in the poll.

[trickmind]

Given that Trump tends to under perform his polls (although, not always), I think Ohio can safely be considered to be lean or likely Kasich.

Open primaries are a different story.

[RI]

The problem with the FL poll is that it doesn't seem to retrieve respondents from voter rolls:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/fl03142016_demos_O33umkp.pdf

I don't imagine Trump is in nearly so strong of a position as he appears in the poll.

Monmouth uses voter rolls, and they have Trump up 17.

[IceSpear]

Glad to see Hillary #holdingstrong in FL/NC. As long as she wins big in those, she's safe and the other 3 states can do whatever they want (well, besides give Bernie blowouts, don't do that guys. )

[Maxwell]

Given that Trump tends to under perform his polls (although, not always), I think Ohio can safely be considered to be lean or likely Kasich.

Open primaries are a different story.

Trump tends to match his poll numbers in primaries while his opponents pick up all or most of the undecideds - I suspect this means Kasich wins here.

[Vosem]

Kasich destroyed _trump with undecideds in Michigan. No, no ing way _trump wins here. Florida is a different story -- there are reasons to believe Rubio is doing better than polls show, but not by 24 points. Looks like a basically done deal there too, but basically in the other direction.

Ah, well. Hopefully Cruz can pull out those wins in MO & IL.

[RI]

Given that Trump tends to under perform his polls (although, not always), I think Ohio can safely be considered to be lean or likely Kasich.

Open primaries are a different story.

Trump tends to match his poll numbers in primaries while his opponents pick up all or most of the undecideds - I suspect this means Kasich wins here.

Here's how Trump's percentage has fared relative to his final poll average here on Atlas in primary states (1% increments):

Generally, the polls have been pretty accurate for Trump, especially as the number of polls increases. There doesn't seem to be much correlation to open vs. closed states; Trump underperformed in closed states such as OK and LA, but also underperformed in open states such as MI and VA.

[RFayette]

Given that Trump tends to under perform his polls (although, not always), I think Ohio can safely be considered to be lean or likely Kasich.

Open primaries are a different story.

And it's not really that Trump underperforms polling. It's more that Cruz always overperforms, which, combined with Kasich tending to underperform, could make Ohio very interesting.

Indeed.  If Cruz somehow manages to win Ohio along with Missouri and Illinois, I believe he's the favorite for the nomination.

[RightBehind]

You know what? Hillary might be up big in Florida but Bernie could take Ohio.