Morning Consult nat.:D: Clinton 48% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 42% Cruz 23% Rubio 12%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national, conducted March 11-13:

https://morningconsult.com/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-ted-cruz-presidential-polling/

Dems

Clinton 48%
Sanders 40%

GOP

Trump 42%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 12%
Kasich 9%

[Mr. Morden]

Trendlines from all national polls:

[izixs]

On the dem side, polls like this leave me still asking: Given how much Clinton won by in some parts of the country compared to the regions Sanders has won, where must Sanders be getting similar numbers (beyond Vermont) to account for a race this close on the national level?

[Eraserhead]

On the dem side, polls like this leave me still asking: Given how much Clinton won by in some parts of the country compared to the regions Sanders has won, where must Sanders be getting similar numbers (beyond Vermont) to account for a race this close on the national level?

Hopefully we find out tomorrow, amirite?

[Mehmentum]

On the dem side, polls like this leave me still asking: Given how much Clinton won by in some parts of the country compared to the regions Sanders has won, where must Sanders be getting similar numbers (beyond Vermont) to account for a race this close on the national level?

He's not.  Clinton leads massively in the South, the rest of the country is roughly a tie.

By population, the South is about 37.7% of the population.  The South probably makes up less than 38% of the Democratic party, since its generally a highly Republican part of the country.

If we were to assume that Clinton has roughly a 35 point lead throughout the entire South (as election results suggest), that would give us national lead of 13 points if the race is a tie everywhere else.  In all likelihood, the South contains less than 37% of Democrats, putting the nationwide race closer to the 8 point figure we see in polling.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

[Lief 🗽]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

[EliteLX]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

[Lief 🗽]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

[EliteLX]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

[IceSpear]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

[psychprofessor]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

Probably after tomorrow night, regardless of the horserace wins and losses, Hillary approaches or surpasses a 300 pledged delegate lead and a 700 pledged with super delegate lead. That is extremely difficult to overcome in a proportional allocation system. Even in Bernie's best caucus states, the delegates are so few that 60/40 wins won't cut it. He would need 80/20 wins plus big upsets in NY, CA, PA and NJ.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

[IceSpear]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

Two words: proportional allocation. If some states were winner take all, you'd have a point.

IIRC, Obama never led Hillary by more than 150 or so delegates.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

Two words: proportional allocation. If some states were winner take all, you'd have a point.

IIRC, Obama never led Hillary by more than 150 or so delegates.

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

Two words: proportional allocation. If some states were winner take all, you'd have a point.

IIRC, Obama never led Hillary by more than 150 or so delegates.

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

First he has to get the MO today by winning Missouri.

[emailking]

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

The Big Mo needs to produce some landslides for him to come out on top in pledged delegates.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

The Big Mo needs to produce some landslides for him to come out on top in pledged delegates.

If PC was a little more stupid then I bet he'd be a TRUMP supporter.

[psychprofessor]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

Two words: proportional allocation. If some states were winner take all, you'd have a point.

IIRC, Obama never led Hillary by more than 150 or so delegates.

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

This is just a really basic misunderstanding of the proportional allocation. Take Ohio for example, it awards delegates proportionally, but certain congressional districts have more delegates available. This usually happens in more urban, typically larger AA or Hispanic districts. In Ohio, this is CD 11  - a huge AA population. Sanders can win the state narrowly and get awarded +2 delegates for a statewide win, but Clinton can win CD11 and win more delegates overall because that district has 17 delegates up for grabs. Now think about California, let's assume Sanders wins the state, there will be certain AA and Hispanic districts that Hillary dominates in - even if Sanders goes on for a statewide win. Let me point to 2008 - Hillary won the state by approximately 10% and over 500k votes, but still only managed to net about 35 delegates. For Sanders to start making up 300+ delegate deficits, he would need a 65/35 or even a 70/30 win in California and blow outs in certain congressional districts...this is why Ice Spear and others point to the fact that proportional allocation really hurts Sanders the more he trails. At a certain point he won't be able to realistically accrue enough delegates.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

Not his fault the Democrat Party has collectively betrayed proud progressives and leftists that once defined it in the name of neoliberal nonsense and Clintonian entitlement.  Are we going to be held hostage by Chelsea 20 years down the line, too?