On the dem side, polls like this leave me still asking: Given how much Clinton won by in some parts of the country compared to the regions Sanders has won, where must Sanders be getting similar numbers (beyond Vermont) to account for a race this close on the national level?
He's not. Clinton leads massively in the South, the rest of the country is roughly a tie.
By population, the South is about 37.7% of the population. The South probably makes up less than 38% of the Democratic party, since its generally a highly Republican part of the country.
If we were to assume that Clinton has roughly a 35 point lead throughout the entire South (as election results suggest), that would give us national lead of 13 points if the race is a tie everywhere else. In all likelihood, the South contains less than 37% of Democrats, putting the nationwide race closer to the 8 point figure we see in polling.
