Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[cinyc]

The Trump tactics begin:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump  17m17 minutes ago
A lot of complaints from people saying my name is not on the ballot in various places in Florida? Hope this is false.

I'm certain that Trump's name isn't on the Democratic ballot that these registered Democrat complainers have to pull in Florida's closed primary. 

[cinyc]

So will we be getting exit poll toplines for Florida at 7 or 8?

8.  The networks won't release the toplines of an exit poll before all the polls have closed.  That's what they did in Michigan.

We'll get a good portion of the actual Florida vote in by 8, though.

[cinyc]

ohio exit

kasich 45
trump 38

Where are you seeing this?

His twin brother that works for CBS.

Nah.  It's ultimately from a Huffington Post Reporter Ryan Grim:

Ryan Grim ‏@ryangrim  17m17 minutes ago
Some GOP exits:
OH: Kasich 45, Trump 38
FL: Trump 47, Rubio 28
MO: Cruz 43, Trump 40
NC: Trump 39, Cruz 35
IL: Trump 40, Cruz 33

Beware of Twitter rumors.

[cinyc]

Rubio is going to have to run up huge margins across Southeastern Florida to have a chance in this race based on the numbers that have come in thus far.

Rubio got killed in the Palm Beach and Broward early vote, according to DecisionDeskHQ's numbers, with Trump at 50% or above.  Miami-Dade alone won't save him.

Rubio is finished.

[cinyc]

The call could be Clinton in Florida as well.

Florida will be called at 8PM.  The western part of the panhandle is still voting until then.

[cinyc]

Trump is leading in Ohio, Kasich in trouble.

At least on the NYT/AP map, it's one precinct in Mahoning County (Youngstown), which should be Trump's best part of the state.

[cinyc]

Fox News projects Trump wins Florida.  Clinton on the Dem side.

[cinyc]

Mark it down, Cruz will win North Carolina by 2-3 points.

I don't see how he can

It depends on how much more pro-Cruz the election day vote is compared to the early vote we have so far.  Is it possible Cruz wins NC?  Yes.  Likely?  Probably not, but it will probably be within 5 points.

[cinyc]

Fox News projects Kasich wins Ohio.

[cinyc]

Anyone see any maps by CD for IL or MO?

Not a map, but:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IL_Delegates_0315.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[cinyc]

Fox News projected Trump wins North Carolina during the 9:30 site breakdown.  Now, Fox News projects Trump wins Illinois.

[cinyc]

McDonald County, MO just went for Trump.  It's the farthest SW in the state. That's extremely bad news for Cruz.

By 9 votes. 

McDonald County, MO more an extension of Benton County Arkansas, which Rubio won, than the rest of SW Missouri.

[cinyc]

So Cruz won Polk and lost Tarney in the SW, is that really good news for him or should he be winning Tarney as well?

Taney County is home to Branson, which is a resort area like Pigeon Forge, Tennessee or Myrtle Beach with more family-friendly shows and no oceanfront beach.  It's not surprising that Trump won there.  He wins resort areas.  Branson is more religious than many of the others, though.

[cinyc]

Unless CNN has results for all of St. Louis then it cannot be 99%

I think maybe it's 75% of the actual absolute number of votes, and 99% of precincts ?

That is not possible, with St. Louis City and County out, among other places.  CNN is wrong.

[cinyc]

St Louis City is all in and Trump still has a 2,400 vote lead.

so is that it?

Just waiting on a little bit in St Louis County (STL suburbs) and KC and KC suburbs.

St. Louis County 40 precincts
Jackson County (KC) 34 precincts
Cass County (KC area) 1 precinct
Buchanan County (St. Joseph) 1 precinct

[cinyc]

Carson might pick up a delegate in NC.

[cinyc]

100% in in Missouri:

Republican Primary

Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,636 votes, with 100% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
Donald J. Trump   381,720   40.8%   
Ted Cruz                   380,084   40.7   
John Kasch             94,430   10.1   
Marco Rubio             56,942   6.1   
Other                     21,781   2.3   
934,957 votes, 100% reporting (3,041 of 3,041 precincts)

[cinyc]

St. Louis City apparently found more votes, sightly widening Trump's lead:
=
Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,726 votes, with 99% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
 Donald J. Trump   382,093   40.8%   
 Ted Cruz                   380,367   40.6   
 John Kasich             94,533   10.1   
 Marco Rubio             57,006   6.1   
Other                     21,795   2.3   

We're also supposedly missing 2 Jackson County (KC) precincts again.