Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

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Anecdotally from my precinct in Ohio, there was not a very long line at all (though I was there around 2:30 PM, so during the working day). Looking at bumper stickers, Bernie dominated overwhelmingly, with _trump, Kasich, and Clinton all being seen on 1-2. (I am in western Cuyahoga County; I fully expect the county, whose Democratic electorate is majority African-American, to vote Clinton; not sure on the Republican side, though considering it was strongly for Romney over Santorum I suppose Kasich should win here, though the coalitions are not exactly the same).

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Independent just threw a fit about not being able to vote for Trump and waa looking for a Trump volunteer but there are no campaigns here

Tell him not to cry over someone who wouldn't cry over him.

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ohio exit

kasich 45
trump 38

Where are you seeing this?

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The key question: where are the FL results coming from?

1 precinct in DeSoto County. 317 votes separate _trump from Rubio. Chill, folks.

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_trump over 45% with early vote in the Tampa and Jacksonville areas. None in yet from Miami, but it still ain't lookin' good...

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how many delegates does Trump get if he loses to Ted by 4 points in MO?

Missouri and Illinois distribute the majority of delegates by congressional district. He could win a majority of delegates in the state while down 4 points, or none at all.

Current delegate totals from FL+NC+OH if current numbers are frozen: T 129, K 75, C 25, R 8. Have some perspective, guys; the apocalypse is not here just yet (still pending MO & IL).

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Rubio's only gonna win ONE county, that is pathetic

To be fair, he'll win the most populous county in the state by more than _trump won any county.

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I checked Pennsylvania for Kasich and if he plans to camp out there, he has basically given up.  It doesn't vote until April 26, I think and it only has 17 delegates according to CNN unless that's a typo.  He really needs to compete in every state the rest of the way, I think not just one insignificant state a month.

Pennsylvania uses the Illinois system, but delegates aren't associated on the ballot with any candidate. Thus, the overwhelming majority will enter the convention as uncommitted.

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_trump is going to win NJ, winner-take-all. What I question is the widespread idea that _trump will do well in California. I think Pacific Coast Republicans should be fertile ground for Ted Cruz.

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Cruz takes the lead in MO.

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It looks like it will be a virtual tie down to the finish between Trump and Cruz in Missouri.  What is the winner delegate advantage in MO?

12 go to the statewide winner; 5 to the winner of each CD. Becomes a WTA state if someone eclipses 50%, though that's pretty certain not to happen.

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Totals from before tonight: T471, C388, R165, K63
Totals tonight: T229, K83, C40, R6
Work shown:
FL: T99
OH: K66
NC (a delegate or two will be off): T30, C27, K9, R6
IL (a delegate or two will be off): T53, K8, C8
MO (worst-case scenario): T47, C5
Overall totals: T700, C428, R171, K146 (700/1445 = 48.4%)

Thus, we have lost the battle tonight; but #Never_trump continues to win the war. This victory was an insufficient one for _trump.

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St Louis is starting to come in and Trump is maintaining his lead.  I think we may be getting closer to a narrow call for Trump.

If the pattern from other southern states (and Kansas City) is followed, late precincts should be better for Cruz than earlier ones, though I'll concede it doesn't look too good.

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What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

The statewide delegates (there are 12) are WTA.

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

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St Louis is starting to come in and Trump is maintaining his lead.  I think we may be getting closer to a narrow call for Trump.

If the pattern from other southern states (and Kansas City) is followed, late precincts should be better for Cruz than earlier ones, though I'll concede it doesn't look too good.

First off, Missouri is not southern, but the only things out now are about 55% of St Louis City, all of Perry County, and a little bit of Jackson County (Kansas City).  Trump has a 3,000 vote lead, so I think his lead, while not safe, is looking better and better.

I didn't say it was southern (I think the state is mostly Midwestern, but it's southeastern corner is southern); I said if it follows the pattern from southern states of later precincts generally being better for Cruz than earlier ones, for whatever reason (there's been a theory that _trump tends to win smaller precincts). There's a difference.

Anyway, _trump is favored in MO but his lead in the 3 St. Louis area counties is single digits; Cruz could well be stronger in the outlying areas. Or not. We'll see.

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Trump's lead is down to 2,450 votes.  Still nothing new from St Louis, but Perry County is all in and basically split between Trump and Cruz.

What's left is Jackson County (Kansas City), Boone County (Columbia), St. Louis County and city. Boone is very Cruz but there's very little left there (just 3 precincts, though in a race this close those could be decisive). The rest are all knife-edges, as is the state.

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Continuing the trend of late urban precincts favoring Cruz, Cruz has taken the lead in Sangamon County, which includes Springfield, IL. (There's actually more out in IL than any other state; _trump's victories in both Cook County and the state's far south have already given him the state, however).

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The 99% was a mistake. 93% of MO is in, and _trump leads by 0.4%, or 2,881 votes. It is unclear whether the 7% that is out is favorable to Cruz or _trump.

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A bit of St. Louis County just dumped; Cruz is within 0.3% statewide and within 0.4% in the county itself. What's left is 2% of Cass County, 11% of Jackson County (KC suburbs and KC, respectively), 8% of St. Louis County, and 43% of St. Louis City. The very last is what will decide this.

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We don't know who's winning MO without knowing what's out in St. Louis, and we have no idea what's out in St. Louis.

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Nope, there's still some hangers-on in Kansas City and St. Louis burbs. Not sure that they can be worth 2,000 votes though.

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14 precincts dropped from Jackson County (21 left to go). _trump's lead down to 0.2%.

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...and there's the rest. The last of them didn't change the margin. Cruz needs 40 precincts in St. Louis County to close up a little less than 2,000 votes. Not impossible if they're dense and good for him, but it seems extremely unlikely.

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There's the rest of St. Louis County. One precinct left in the state; Cruz needs 1500 votes from it. Not happening. (The margin here is just 0.1%, ultimately, unless this is one of the biggest and most pro-Cruz precincts in the state).

_trump wins Missouri, guys. Sad!

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Is Trump only the apparent winner instead of the projected winner because Cruz will likely request a recount?

Yes, though I doubt a recount can overturn 1636 votes (the final margin) unless there is a large uncounted cache of Cruz votes uncovered somewhere. Still, stranger things have happened. How many CDs did Cruz win in the final estimation? 3, right? (5, 4, and 7)?