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  AZ- Bruce Merrill (?): Clinton ties Trump, trails Cruz
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Author Topic: AZ- Bruce Merrill (?): Clinton ties Trump, trails Cruz  (Read 2471 times)
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« on: March 17, 2016, 04:55:09 pm »

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Cruz (R): 41%
Clinton (D): 35%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2016, 04:59:50 pm »

Can't wait to hear OC's analysis of this one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2016, 05:40:54 pm »

The difference between Cruz and Trump is probably the LDS (Mormon vote).  The Hispanic vote is probably about the same involving both Trump and Cruz (Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans).
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2016, 08:50:56 pm »

Or we could win with Bernie. Naw, that would make too much sense.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2016, 09:00:49 pm »

The Hispanic vote is probably about the same involving both Trump and Cruz (Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans).

I'm not certain this follows -- Cruz probably won't do any better with Hispanics than "typical Republican", but trump is likely to repel those voters and do significantly worse.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2016, 06:26:06 am »

TRUMP has a problem with Latinos.  But, the Palin endorsement doesnt bold well for McCain. McCain may lose, while Trump wins AZ.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2016, 08:18:33 am »
« Edited: March 18, 2016, 01:01:36 pm by pbrower2a »

The Hispanic vote is probably about the same involving both Trump and Cruz (Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans).

I'm not certain this follows -- Cruz probably won't do any better with Hispanics than "typical Republican", but trump is likely to repel those voters and do significantly worse.

It could be the difference between visceral fear (Trump) and mere incompatibility with core beliefs (Cruz). One has only one vote, so the difference in perception between two undesirable candidates against someone unobjectionable will not manifest itself in a difference in votes  That is for Hispanics. For Mormons, it may be between someone uncharacteristic of the sort of people for whom they usually vote (Clinton) and someone utterly incompatible with their values in personal life (Trump).  That could be a bigger difference in voting behavior.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2016, 09:26:40 am »

The GOP havent learned that Palin doesnt help with Latinos, since 2008, but yet again, Trump wanted her endorsement. It beat back Cruz.
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Joshua
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« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2016, 11:58:23 am »

Or we could win with Bernie. Naw, that would make too much sense.

Irrelevant; If Arizona is actually tied, Trump is losing anyway.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2016, 12:10:32 pm »

The GOP havent learned that Palin doesnt help with Latinos, since 2008, but yet again, Trump wanted her endorsement. It beat back Cruz.

Such wisdom.
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Anonymous
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2016, 12:28:32 pm »

Or we could win with Bernie. Naw, that would make too much sense.

Lol the tears are so salty.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2016, 01:17:07 pm »

Or we could win with Bernie. Naw, that would make too much sense.

Irrelevant; If Arizona is actually tied, Trump is losing anyway.

The Latinos already have a Jan Brewer in SW, Palin would of been the Veep and would of been tougher on immigrants than she was or even like Joe Apairo
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2016, 01:18:27 pm »

The GOP havent learned that Palin doesnt help with Latinos, since 2008, but yet again, Trump wanted her endorsement. It beat back Cruz.

Polls from 2009 showed her losing big -- and losing in Arizona.

As I recall she did especially badly with people who are not native speakers of English. The best way to speak to people for whom English is a second language is to cleave to the formal register, whatever the language, whatever the level of proficiency the person has in English. Translating political speech in one's mind from standard English to Spanish is difficult enough. Translating botched English to standard English and then to Spanish is even more of a problem.

She was doing far worse than just about every possible other Republican candidate for President of the time. Someone like Mike Huckabee might be a poor cultural match for many people, but at least one understands him well.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2016, 03:28:23 pm »

FL will go Dem before AZ, but if is a close election at presidential race in AZ, I can see McCain losing.
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P123
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2016, 08:19:15 pm »

I said this before that Trump will get 10-15% of the Hispanic vote + massive turnout against him. But he will still win Arizona, but by 5 or so points proabably. Wont be competitive IMO.

Trump needs to focus on states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, by running a centrist-populist GE campaign focused on immigration and trade.
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Anonymous
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« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2016, 11:49:15 pm »

Or we could win with Bernie. Naw, that would make too much sense.

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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2016, 10:16:40 am »


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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2016, 11:17:03 am »

Trump will win roughly 5-10% of the vote in AZ, less than Romney. McCain barely sweeps by, and this will be his last run as senator.
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