AZ- Bruce Merrill (?): Clinton ties Trump, trails Cruz

[pbrower2a]

The difference between Cruz and Trump is probably the LDS (Mormon vote).  The Hispanic vote is probably about the same involving both Trump and Cruz (Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans).

[pbrower2a]

The Hispanic vote is probably about the same involving both Trump and Cruz (Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans).

I'm not certain this follows -- Cruz probably won't do any better with Hispanics than "typical Republican", but _trump is likely to repel those voters and do significantly worse.

It could be the difference between visceral fear (Trump) and mere incompatibility with core beliefs (Cruz). One has only one vote, so the difference in perception between two undesirable candidates against someone unobjectionable will not manifest itself in a difference in votes  That is for Hispanics. For Mormons, it may be between someone uncharacteristic of the sort of people for whom they usually vote (Clinton) and someone utterly incompatible with their values in personal life (Trump).  That could be a bigger difference in voting behavior.

[pbrower2a]

The GOP havent learned that Palin doesnt help with Latinos, since 2008, but yet again, Trump wanted her endorsement. It beat back Cruz.

Polls from 2009 showed her losing big -- and losing in Arizona.

As I recall she did especially badly with people who are not native speakers of English. The best way to speak to people for whom English is a second language is to cleave to the formal register, whatever the language, whatever the level of proficiency the person has in English. Translating political speech in one's mind from standard English to Spanish is difficult enough. Translating botched English to standard English and then to Spanish is even more of a problem.

She was doing far worse than just about every possible other Republican candidate for President of the time. Someone like Mike Huckabee might be a poor cultural match for many people, but at least one understands him well.