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Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders  (Read 4575 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 20, 2016, 08:11:55 am »

Dan Jones & Associates poll of Utah, conducted Mar. 8-15:

http://www.ksl.com/?sid=38970451&nid=960

Quote
If Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party's nominee, Utahns would vote for a Democrat for president in November for the first time in more than 50 years, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.

"I believe Donald Trump could lose Utah. If you lose Utah as a Republican, there is no hope," said former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, a top campaign adviser to the GOP's 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney.

The poll found that may well be true. Utah voters said they would reject Trump, the GOP frontrunner, whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is the Democratic candidate on the general election ballot.
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Also surprising is the number of Utahns who said they wouldn't vote if Trump were on the ballot. Sixteen percent said they'd skip the election if Trump and Clinton were their ballot choices, while 9 percent said they wouldn't vote if it was a Trump-Sanders matchup.

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Cruz and Kasich are ahead though:

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2016, 08:15:30 am »

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Sasquatch
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2016, 08:17:33 am »

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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2016, 09:03:07 am »

This is an eye opener for Trump. If he's struggles in UT, then the SW is gonna go for Clinton.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2016, 09:03:20 am »

LOL. I told you guys that UT would be more competitive than NH in November, but you guys didn't believe me Tongue

The other numbers aren't that good for Republicans, either:

Kaisch (R): 59%
Clinton (D): 29%

Cruz (R): 60%
Clinton (D): 32%

Kasich (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 35%

Cruz (R): 53%
Sanders (D): 39% 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2016, 09:06:25 am by TN volunteer »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2016, 09:05:26 am »

Clinton isnt winning UT
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Zache
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2016, 10:08:19 am »

Why do Mormons hate Trump so much?
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2016, 10:14:04 am »

If it's Trump, bye Mia Love.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2016, 10:33:42 am »

Best poll in years.

But if UT votes Dem., I'll eat a broomstick.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2016, 10:38:34 am »

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darthebearnc
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2016, 10:41:01 am »

I'm genuinely not surprised.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2016, 11:15:42 am »

I wouldn't get too optimistic. Looking at the numbers for the other Republicans, this seems a tad bit generous to Clinton/Sanders. If Trump does do especially poorly in UT, though, Democrats might have a chance of taking back UT-4.
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Arch
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2016, 11:23:56 am »

Called it!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2016, 11:35:54 am »

Um. Wow.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2016, 11:42:05 am »

Utah the toss-up state is real!

R.I.P. Mia Love.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2016, 11:43:02 am »

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.
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Arch
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2016, 11:44:57 am »

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2016, 11:46:01 am »

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.

Why do early general election polls only matter to you guys when they show Trump losing?

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Not anymore. Dave told us we should enter the Clinton vs. Trump numbers into the database, unless something changes. 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2016, 11:49:17 am by TN volunteer »Logged
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2016, 11:49:00 am »

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Well:

Hi,
At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave
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Arch
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2016, 11:51:17 am »

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.

Why do early general election polls only matter to you guys when they show Trump losing?

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Not anymore. Dave told us we should enter the Clinton vs. Trump numbers into the database, unless something changes. 

I don't recall saying anything about early election polls. I believe they show potential future trends, but nothing definitive. The fact that Trump is trailing both of his potential opponents altogether in UT is a bad sign even if it's this early.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2016, 12:06:24 pm »

Yeah, Trump will lose like Romney, instead of keeping close and winning at the end.
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Yan
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2016, 12:15:49 pm »

Holy s**t. If this is accurate and Mormons really do hate Trump that much, he might be in legitimate trouble in Wyoming and Idaho.

And here I thought I was joking when I said I might be the vote that swings my state to Clinton...
« Last Edit: March 20, 2016, 12:18:22 pm by Yan »Logged
IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2016, 12:24:29 pm »

LOL.

Trump will win Utah by double digits, but the swing is going to be massive. And as others have stated, could spell the end for Mia Love...
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« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2016, 12:32:27 pm »

Unless a conservative third party challenge happens, Trump should be able to win.

But, I can't help but wonder how much Mormon backlash will hurt Trump in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2016, 12:34:58 pm »

Unless a conservative third party challenge happens, Trump should be able to win.

True, but some kind of conservative third party challenge is rather plausible, and Utah has a relatively late ballot deadline, and not particularly onerous ballot requirements.  Even if the third party challenge did no better than Nader 2000 nationally, what kind of numbers would they get in Utah?
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