UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders
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  UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders
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Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders  (Read 6554 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 20, 2016, 08:11:55 AM »

Dan Jones & Associates poll of Utah, conducted Mar. 8-15:

http://www.ksl.com/?sid=38970451&nid=960

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Cruz and Kasich are ahead though:


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2016, 08:15:30 AM »




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Sasquatch
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2016, 08:17:33 AM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2016, 09:03:07 AM »

This is an eye opener for Trump. If he's struggles in UT, then the SW is gonna go for Clinton.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2016, 09:05:26 AM »

Clinton isnt winning UT
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Zache
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2016, 10:08:19 AM »

Why do Mormons hate Trump so much?
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2016, 10:14:04 AM »

If it's Trump, bye Mia Love.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2016, 10:33:42 AM »

Best poll in years.

But if UT votes Dem., I'll eat a broomstick.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2016, 10:38:34 AM »

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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2016, 10:41:01 AM »

I'm genuinely not surprised.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2016, 11:15:42 AM »

I wouldn't get too optimistic. Looking at the numbers for the other Republicans, this seems a tad bit generous to Clinton/Sanders. If Trump does do especially poorly in UT, though, Democrats might have a chance of taking back UT-4.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2016, 11:23:56 AM »

Called it!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2016, 11:35:54 AM »

Um. Wow.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2016, 11:42:05 AM »

Utah the toss-up state is real!

R.I.P. Mia Love.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2016, 11:43:02 AM »

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2016, 11:44:57 AM »

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2016, 11:49:00 AM »

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Well:

Hi,
At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2016, 11:51:17 AM »

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.

Why do early general election polls only matter to you guys when they show Trump losing?

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Not anymore. Dave told us we should enter the Clinton vs. Trump numbers into the database, unless something changes. 

I don't recall saying anything about early election polls. I believe they show potential future trends, but nothing definitive. The fact that Trump is trailing both of his potential opponents altogether in UT is a bad sign even if it's this early.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2016, 12:06:24 PM »

Yeah, Trump will lose like Romney, instead of keeping close and winning at the end.
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Yan
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« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2016, 12:15:49 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2016, 12:18:22 PM by Yan »

Holy s**t. If this is accurate and Mormons really do hate Trump that much, he might be in legitimate trouble in Wyoming and Idaho.

And here I thought I was joking when I said I might be the vote that swings my state to Clinton...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2016, 12:24:29 PM »

LOL.

Trump will win Utah by double digits, but the swing is going to be massive. And as others have stated, could spell the end for Mia Love...
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2016, 12:32:27 PM »

Unless a conservative third party challenge happens, Trump should be able to win.

But, I can't help but wonder how much Mormon backlash will hurt Trump in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2016, 12:34:58 PM »

Unless a conservative third party challenge happens, Trump should be able to win.

True, but some kind of conservative third party challenge is rather plausible, and Utah has a relatively late ballot deadline, and not particularly onerous ballot requirements.  Even if the third party challenge did no better than Nader 2000 nationally, what kind of numbers would they get in Utah?
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2016, 01:25:39 PM »

Wow. I think Trump will win Utah, but it will be much, much closer than usual.
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2016, 01:27:57 PM »

TRUMP will win Utah by a single digit margin, but he doesn't need blowout margins of +30% anywhere. To win, a candidate must have ONE vote more than the closest opponent in each of the states comprising his winning states that add up to 270 (It's 270 for TRUMP and not 269, cause he cannot rely on the House of Representatives).
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