UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders

[Ljube]

TRUMP will win Utah by a single digit margin, but he doesn't need blowout margins of +30% anywhere. To win, a candidate must have ONE vote more than the closest opponent in each of the states comprising his winning states that add up to 270 (It's 270 for TRUMP and not 269, cause he cannot rely on the House of Representatives).

[Ljube]

TRUMP will win Utah by a single digit margin, but he doesn't need blowout margins of +30% anywhere. To win, a candidate must have ONE vote more than the closest opponent in each of the states comprising his winning states that add up to 270 (It's 270 for TRUMP and not 269, cause he cannot rely on the House of Representatives).

You don't say? The point here is that if he's in trouble in UT, he's already lost the election in a landslide.

Btw: Stop this TRUMP nonsense. It's not even remotely cool or funny anymore.

OK, I'll stop with the bold print. I reserve the right to type TRUMP in case he has a good night (say he wins all 95 delegates in New York).

About the first thing, the point here is that if he is in trouble in UT, that doesn't mean he is in trouble everywhere. UT is majority Mormon and Mormons don't like Trump.
In fact, I think that him underperforming with certain groups and making certain states closer, yet still Trump wins (Texas, Arizona, Utah - all single digit wins, possibly low single digit), or making Clinton blowout states even bigger blowouts (California, Oregon, Washington - huge Clinton wins) will have exhausted his GE national polling deficit. So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

[Ljube]

Him wiining the EC requires winning states like FL or WI, which isn't happening if he's only winning TX or UT by 5-10 points. As simple as that.

Why do you think so? The margins of victory in TX and FL are independent of each other.
He could lose TX Hispanics by a blowout and lose some Establishment TX Republican votes, but win FL by GWB's margin.

[Ljube]

So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

Honestly, that is a real stretch. The kind of PV margins you are probably talking about would be unprecedented in combination with an EV win. The popular vote can deviate a bit but in general it does stay at least somewhat close to EV outcomes. And before anyone says "this election cycle has been so far out of the norm that anything is possible!", it's worth noting that there are limits and using that blanket excuse is a bad argument.

I sure as hell wouldn't bank on such an outcome.

Virginia, we know that his base are white low education males and working class voters (whites and others). These are disproportionally concentrated in PA, MI and OH. I don't see why he couldn't win there by small margins and yet lose elsewhere by a lot bigger margins and lose the PV, but win the EV.