AZ - Opinion Savvy: Trump with a double-digit lead

[Ronnie]

Trump 46%
Cruz 33%
Kasich 17%
Undecided 4%

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/110984766-storyw

Better than nothing, I guess.

[Fargobison]

Weird that early voting is so much closer, would have predicted the opposite.

[/]

Makes sense.

[yankeesfan]

Weird that early voting is so much closer, would have predicted the opposite.

I'm not 100% convinced those early voting numbers are accurate.  Remember the Florida poll that had Rubio up 44/27 in early voting, but in reality it was the exact opposite?

[Donnie]

Makes sense.

[Holmes]

Rubio was winning the early vote in pretty much all the polls early on, but as it got closer to primary day, Trump started to take the lead even in the early vote. But his strength was among people who voted on election day (as opposed to Louisiana where Trump cleaned up the early vote and Cruz beat him on election day - it was a bad weekend for him a few days earlier).

[Tender Branson]

The gap should be much narrower than that.

I predict both Trump and Cruz at around 40% (+/- 3%).

[OkThen]

Not too much evidence of Opinion Savvy clearly overstating Trump support (sometimes yes, sometimes no.) They were pretty accurate in Florida though.

[Vosem]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

[Ronnie]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

To be fair, there aren't many polls to which we can compare this one.  The only recent one, IIRC, is the Merill poll, which had a tiny sample size and high undecideds.  And Trump still led by 12%.

[Donnie]

Not too much evidence of Opinion Savvy clearly overstating Trump support (sometimes yes, sometimes no.) They were pretty accurate in Florida though.

In Georgia too.

[DemPGH]

Three recent polls have DJT at 12%, 13%, and 14%. One of them, I think the one that has him at 12%, had what seemed to me like a pretty small sample size, although I'm not an expert on that.

But this is good. If he bags AZ before a lull that shifts back to NY, NJ, PA, et. al., I think he's in superb shape (it would be a little like a football game where one team gets ahead by about 16, 17 points in the second half - in other words, a little separation). The reactionaries would have to screw him over at the convention as the best way to derail him if he doesn't in fact get the 1237 or 1240 or whatever. If he gets AZ, I think it's the event horizon.

[pbrower2a]

Weird that early voting is so much closer, would have predicted the opposite.

Could the early voters among Republicans be disproportionately Mormon?

[Vosem]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

They did know something no one else did. Credit to OpinionSavvy where credit is due, for being the only ones who were able to (nearly) nail _trump's final percentage in the state. The remaining polling here, conducted by Merrill and whatnot, was total garbage.

[IceSpear]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

They did know something no one else did. Credit to OpinionSavvy where credit is due, for being the only ones who were able to (nearly) nail _trump's final percentage in the state. The remaining polling here, conducted by Merrill and whatnot, was total garbage.

Did TRUMP really do a number on you last night?

[Vosem]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

They did know something no one else did. Credit to OpinionSavvy where credit is due, for being the only ones who were able to (nearly) nail _trump's final percentage in the state. The remaining polling here, conducted by Merrill and whatnot, was total garbage.

Did TRUMP really do a number on you last night?

Eh. Last night was the first time this entire cycle I've seen a meaningful _trump over-performance of the polling average. The low amount and low quality of polling in Arizona means that it didn't completely come out of left field (and the fact that this poll forecast it kept it in the back of my mind), but yeah, I really didn't expect 47% for him, especially after that random local newspaper in Prescott f**ked up their exit poll and said Cruz was on track for a landslide. Arizona wasn't a necessary win for the anti-_trump forces, but a win by Cruz would've meant that yesterday would've basically guaranteed a contested convention, and I'd gotten my hopes up for that.

Being a Hillary supporter, though, you must be rather used to polling under-performances at this point

[IceSpear]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

They did know something no one else did. Credit to OpinionSavvy where credit is due, for being the only ones who were able to (nearly) nail _trump's final percentage in the state. The remaining polling here, conducted by Merrill and whatnot, was total garbage.

Did TRUMP really do a number on you last night?

Eh. Last night was the first time this entire cycle I've seen a meaningful _trump over-performance of the polling average. The low amount and low quality of polling in Arizona means that it didn't completely come out of left field (and the fact that this poll forecast it kept it in the back of my mind), but yeah, I really didn't expect 47% for him, especially after that random local newspaper in Prescott f**ked up their exit poll and said Cruz was on track for a landslide. Arizona wasn't a necessary win for the anti-_trump forces, but a win by Cruz would've meant that yesterday would've basically guaranteed a contested convention, and I'd gotten my hopes up for that.

Being a Hillary supporter, though, you must be rather used to polling under-performances at this point

The problem for Cruz was that even if Trump did underperform, Rubio getting a solid chunk of the early vote was almost certainly going to preclude the possibility of an upset.

As for Hillary, she's outperformed the polls in like half the states that have voted so far. lol

[Vosem]

Well, every other polling firm has _trump in the mid-30s here (which wasn't the case in FL), so either they know something no one else does or they're simply off.

They did know something no one else did. Credit to OpinionSavvy where credit is due, for being the only ones who were able to (nearly) nail _trump's final percentage in the state. The remaining polling here, conducted by Merrill and whatnot, was total garbage.

Did TRUMP really do a number on you last night?

Eh. Last night was the first time this entire cycle I've seen a meaningful _trump over-performance of the polling average. The low amount and low quality of polling in Arizona means that it didn't completely come out of left field (and the fact that this poll forecast it kept it in the back of my mind), but yeah, I really didn't expect 47% for him, especially after that random local newspaper in Prescott f**ked up their exit poll and said Cruz was on track for a landslide. Arizona wasn't a necessary win for the anti-_trump forces, but a win by Cruz would've meant that yesterday would've basically guaranteed a contested convention, and I'd gotten my hopes up for that.

Being a Hillary supporter, though, you must be rather used to polling under-performances at this point

The problem for Cruz was that even if Trump did underperform, Rubio getting a solid chunk of the early vote was almost certainly going to preclude the possibility of an upset.

True, I suppose, though I don't think the phenomenon of a candidate dropping out right before Arizona had happened in the recent past, so the high Rubio vote also came as a bit of a surprise.

As for Hillary, she's outperformed the polls in like half the states that have voted so far. lol

I haven't really been following the D side at all, since the R side is so compelling this year, but I feel like all I've read about is how Bernie outperformed in Michigan and came close in Nevada etc., etc. I was very surprised by how poorly he did in Ohio, though. Obviously I'm aware that it doesn't matter much and that Hillary is on track to win the nomination with room to spare.