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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Close race with Trump and Cruz, Clinton trails Kasich  (Read 1201 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: March 22, 2016, 01:46:25 pm »

Clinton (D): 44%
Trump (R): 42%

Clinton (D): 45%
Cruz (R): 42%

Kasich (R): 49%
Clinton (D): 41%

------------------------------------
Sanders (D): 48%
Trump (R): 41%

Sanders (D): 45%
Cruz (R): 42%

Kasich (R): 44%
Sanders (D): 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2016, 02:25:45 pm »

D+1
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2016, 03:09:58 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2016, 03:19:34 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Clinton can't attack him from the right effectively, since she needs left-of-center voters in the primaries. She's been attacking him from the left instead (guns, immigration, etc.) Obviously it's much more difficult to do that, than to paint Sanders as too pro-big government/will raise taxes for average Americans.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2016, 03:26:53 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

"Hillary's attack machine"

You must not have been paying very much attention to this primary. Hillary has barely laid a glove on the guy.

And even if she did, the Republican hate machine would be 100x worse. Hillary doesn't have an entire media complex and an army of billionaires ready to drop hundreds of millions in fiercely negative attack ads behind her (contrary to the feverish dreams of certain people.)

Regardless, it's irrelevant at this point anyway.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 03:30:20 pm by IceSpear »Logged

BundouYMB
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2016, 03:34:42 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Lol. It's adorable you think those are "attacks." Those are the kid gloves.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2016, 04:06:16 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

What Clinton attack machine? Sanders have gone through this primary unscathed. You think Clinton pointing out Sanders voted for bill A over bill B is an attack? If Sanders is the nominee just wait when the GOP SuperPACs stop airing ads in support of Sanders and start airing ads that say "Bernie Sanders, a self described socialist and supporter of communist dictators, wants to take away your private health insurance and raise taxes on the middle class and poor." Incidentally, about 75% of this statement is true!
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2016, 04:50:43 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

He hasn't survived Hillary's attack machine and Hillary has pretty much run a fraction (about 1/10th) of the attacks she ran on Obama 8 years ago. No way would Bernie survive a GOP sliming
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 04:52:30 pm by dspNY »Logged
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2016, 05:04:45 pm »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2016, 09:25:23 pm »

Sanders could be a good VP nominee for Hillary Clinton.

A Republican nominee cannot now win the Presidency without North Carolina -- or even if the state is close. See also Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. The last Republican nominee to win without North Carolina was Eisenhower in 1956.   
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2016, 09:34:43 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Clinton can't attack him from the right effectively, since she needs left-of-center voters in the primaries. She's been attacking him from the left instead (guns, immigration, etc.) Obviously it's much more difficult to do that, than to paint Sanders as too pro-big government/will raise taxes for average Americans.

Hillary has attacked him from the right. She claimed that single payer is too expensive, and we just need incremental changes. Her surrogates attacked him for being a socialist. He's been attacked for "free stuff".
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2016, 09:51:53 pm »

Sanders could be a good VP nominee for Hillary Clinton.

A Republican nominee cannot now win the Presidency without North Carolina -- or even if the state is close. See also Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. The last Republican nominee to win without North Carolina was Eisenhower in 1956.  

Sanders wont be nominee, Julian Castro will solidify her base of Co, NV, NM & Pa.  He lost Vegas big time meaning Latino vote. SANDERS will struggle with Blk voters in Philly, it would be an odd pick.

Sanders is so electable and would cost Dems Pennsylvania due to depressed Blk turnout in Philly, due to his poor standing  in SC

Also, in Ohio River Valley, Blks support Clinton, because Strickland is running and have already is on record supported by Clinton
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 09:54:03 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
136or142
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2016, 10:10:54 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Clinton can't attack him from the right effectively, since she needs left-of-center voters in the primaries. She's been attacking him from the left instead (guns, immigration, etc.) Obviously it's much more difficult to do that, than to paint Sanders as too pro-big government/will raise taxes for average Americans.

Hillary has attacked him from the right. She claimed that single payer is too expensive, and we just need incremental changes. Her surrogates attacked him for being a socialist. He's been attacked for "free stuff".

True, but they've mostly been pretty mild attacks.  Also, the one time I saw a Hillary Clinton surrogate bring up 'free stuff' I thought the Sanders team responded very well by saying 'her supporters are even using baseless Republican talking points now.'

That said, I disagree that Hillary Clinton says the U.S just needs 'incremental change.'  She says the U.S doesn't need 'a revolution' and that she has more experience and is a more practical person so that she can actually bring about the changes that most Democrats want.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2016, 10:14:41 pm »

Sanders could be a good VP nominee for Hillary Clinton.

A Republican nominee cannot now win the Presidency without North Carolina -- or even if the state is close. See also Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. The last Republican nominee to win without North Carolina was Eisenhower in 1956.  

Sanders wont be nominee, Julian Castro will solidify her base of Co, NV, NM & Pa.  He lost Vegas big time meaning Latino vote. SANDERS will struggle with Blk voters in Philly, it would be an odd pick.

Sanders is so electable and would cost Dems Pennsylvania due to depressed Blk turnout in Philly, due to his poor standing  in SC

Also, in Ohio River Valley, Blks support Clinton, because Strickland is running and have already is on record supported by Clinton

This is already off topic, but with Trump as the Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton hardly needs Julian Castro to 'bring in' Latino voters.

At this point I predict she'll try and get Elizabeth Warren to be her Vice Presidential nominee.
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Could the 13th Mississippi Congressional District (MS-13) be competitive for the Democrats?
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« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2016, 11:43:06 pm »

Bernie won't be the VP nominee. He will go right back to trashing the Democratic Party with the typical leftist epithets commonly espoused by the Sandernistas on here as being owned by Wall Street and the big banks and corporations and the 1%, etc.

Can we PLEASE nip the "Julian Castro for VP because of Latinos and making Texas competitive" thing in the bud? She's doing great with Hispanics/Latinos all on her own, just as she did in 2008, and with Trump as the likely GOP nominee, well, enough said. Furthermore, Texas is not going to be competitive in 2016 (or 2020, for that matter). After that, we can talk. I think Georgia, Arizona, and Alaska(!) are red states that are much more favorable to turning blue before Texas, but that's just my opinion. 

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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2016, 02:30:15 am »

I said she will win CO, NV, NM & Pa , Tx and FL are irrelevemt. But Castro or  Tom Perez wont depress Black turnout in OHor Pa like Bernie Sanders would.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2016, 02:44:34 am by Da-Jon »Logged
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2016, 03:29:45 am »

3-way race:

Clinton 38%
Trump 34%
conservative 3rd party 18%

Sanders 41%
Trump 35%
conservative 3rd party 15%

fav/unfav %:
Kasich 36/31% for +5%
Sanders 39/48% for -9%
Cruz 32/51% for -19%
Clinton 34/57% for -23%
Trump 31/58% for -27%

Among blacks, Trump is at 2% favorable, 91% unfavorable(!).
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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2016, 10:11:37 am »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Survived? He's losing. You know that right?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2016, 12:30:16 pm »

Don't see the argument that Sanders isn't a stronger general election candidate. All it comes down to is he won't survive the Republican attack machine. If he's so fragile, why has he survived Hillary's attack machine? She has made the case he's unelectable and aggressively gone after him yet he still boasts higher favorables and better general election numbers.

Survived? He's losing. You know that right?

I mean her attacks on him, which include attacks on him from the right, hitting him on spending and being a socialist haven't left him with weaker favorability than her or a worse performance with Independent voters or weaker general election numbers. I'm skeptical the GOP would be able to destroy Sanders for advocating single payer when their own frontrunner has proposed the same thing and it didn't hurt him at all.

As far as the Democratic primary is concerned, Clinton started out with such a massive lead and Sanders has continued to close the gap despite her attacks. She is still winning and will be the nominee but that doesn't suggest her attacks on him have landed. Just that she had a big enough lead that she won't blow it.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2016, 01:33:16 pm »

3-way race:

Clinton 38%
Trump 34%
conservative 3rd party 18%

Sanders 41%
Trump 35%
conservative 3rd party 15%

fav/unfav %:
Kasich 36/31% for +5%
Sanders 39/48% for -9%
Cruz 32/51% for -19%
Clinton 34/57% for -23%
Trump 31/58% for -27%

Among blacks, Trump is at 2% favorable, 91% unfavorable(!).


That's odd, I read on a very reliable forum full of expert pundits, that Trump would have record high black support because of his swagger.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2016, 01:40:03 pm »

On the Atlas state polls aggregate map, NC is now a Tossup state.

Democrats now have 265 electoral votes, Republicans only 189.

Competitive states that lean Democratic: FL, OH, VA, WI
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« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2016, 01:53:05 pm »

On the Atlas state polls aggregate map, NC is now a Tossup state.

Democrats now have 265 electoral votes, Republicans only 189.

Competitive states that lean Democratic: FL, OH, VA, WI


Not to mention that it still has IA as a non-tossup state.
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