Monmouth U. national:D: Clinton 55% Sanders 37%;R: Trump 41% Cruz 29% Kasich 18%
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  Monmouth U. national:D: Clinton 55% Sanders 37%;R: Trump 41% Cruz 29% Kasich 18%
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Author Topic: Monmouth U. national:D: Clinton 55% Sanders 37%;R: Trump 41% Cruz 29% Kasich 18%  (Read 1027 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 23, 2016, 10:44:20 AM »

Monmouth U. national poll, conducted March 17-20:

pdf link

Dems

Clinton 55%
Sanders 37%

GOP

Trump 41%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 18%
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 11:03:28 AM »

It says by telephone, does that mean it was all landlines then?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2016, 11:07:19 AM »

The polls prove: The Trumpster has reached a cap. He doesn't win much support of the dropped out ones anymore. He would lose two way race against Cruz and likely even more to Kasich.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2016, 11:07:41 AM »

It says by telephone, does that mean it was all landlines then?
From the methodology: "This includes 656 contacted by a live interviewer on
a landline telephone and 352 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English."
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2016, 11:10:08 AM »

The polls prove: The Trumpster has reached a cap. He doesn't win much support of the dropped out ones anymore. He would lose two way race against Cruz and likely even more to Kasich.

He leads both Cruz and Kasich handily in head to heads...
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Holmes
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2016, 11:18:22 AM »

Is this the Monmouth that got Ohio right on the Democratic side or was that the other Monmouth?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2016, 11:45:39 AM »

Is this the Monmouth that got Ohio right on the Democratic side or was that the other Monmouth?
Monmouth has been remarkably accurate across the board for a University pollster this cycle.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2016, 11:52:45 AM »

The polls prove: The Trumpster has reached a cap. He doesn't win much support of the dropped out ones anymore. He would lose two way race against Cruz and likely even more to Kasich.

He leads both Cruz and Kasich handily in head to heads...

Don't inject facts into the pundit's logic.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2016, 11:59:20 AM »

The polls prove: The Trumpster has reached a cap. He doesn't win much support of the dropped out ones anymore. He would lose two way race against Cruz and likely even more to Kasich.

He leads both Cruz and Kasich handily in head to heads...

The poll doesn't actually test a head to head. It reallocated the voters of Cruz and Kasich based on their second choice preference. 
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Ronnie
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2016, 01:33:02 PM »

The polls prove: The Trumpster has reached a cap. He doesn't win much support of the dropped out ones anymore. He would lose two way race against Cruz and likely even more to Kasich.

He leads both Cruz and Kasich handily in head to heads...

The poll doesn't actually test a head to head. It reallocated the voters of Cruz and Kasich based on their second choice preference.  

What are the head-to-head numbers based on the reallocation?  I don't see them anywhere in the PDF.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2016, 02:10:11 AM »

It says by telephone, does that mean it was all landlines then?
Pollsters can dial cell phones - if they have a live interviewer.

Live interviewers are expensive because you have to call bunches of people to get people to pick up, let alone not hang up. Autodialing is a lot cheaper because can dial lots of numbers and have a single computer handling several calls at once.

It is possible that it is cheaper for universities since they can hire students for minimum wages for a part time job and maybe some class credit. If you were hiring in the regular workforce, you would probably have to pay more to get competent interviewers, since they would be more interested in regular income, as opposed to some extra cash.
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