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Author Topic: WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads  (Read 5343 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: March 23, 2016, 03:14:02 pm »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Democrats

Clinton       50
Sanders     44


Republicans

Cruz           36
TRUMP        35
Kasich        19 
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 03:16:45 pm »

HAHAHA looks like we can throw Emerson polls out now.
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2016, 03:17:10 pm »

I expect Bernie to win WI in the end, but the fact that Hillary is keeping it competitive is great for her. This should be solid Bernie country.

As expected, Trump is in trouble. Luckily for him, he should be able to snag some CDs even if he loses overall.
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2016, 03:17:52 pm »

The only times Cruz has ever led in a reputable poll were in Iowa, Texas and Utah.

And now Wisconsin. Just in case anyone was wondering.  
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2016, 03:18:10 pm »

Junk poll.
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2016, 03:22:07 pm »

Junk poll.

why? Minnesota is next door and trump got third place.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2016, 03:23:55 pm »

Junk poll.

why? Minnesota is next door and trump got third place.

In a caucus he didn't compete in.
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2016, 03:27:06 pm »

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.
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marty
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2016, 03:29:46 pm »

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

MU had trump up 10 ten in late feb, but still only at 30.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2016, 03:30:34 pm »

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

MU had trump up 10 ten in late feb, but still only at 30.

I'm aware of that.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2016, 03:31:36 pm »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.
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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2016, 03:32:28 pm »

What about this poll makes it junk?  It's a believable result to me.
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« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2016, 03:34:52 pm »

Glorious news! I put money on Cruz just in time!
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« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2016, 03:35:51 pm »

This poll makes a lot of sense on the GOP side, about what I expected when I saw how people in the SE corner of the state view Trump.

I think Kasich's number will only collapse more. Voters will rally around the Trump slayer.

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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2016, 03:38:20 pm »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.
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marty
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« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2016, 03:40:16 pm »

This poll makes a lot of sense on the GOP side, about what I expected when I saw how people in the SE corner of the state view Trump.

I think Kasich's number will only collapse more. Voters will rally around the Trump slayer.



another thing: poll is 10% undecided. If those break like they usually do, it will be a 2-4 point cruz victory.
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« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2016, 03:42:51 pm »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.

It's husband, not boyfriend.
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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2016, 03:43:50 pm »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.

It's husband, not boyfriend.
 

Good job.
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2016, 03:45:10 pm »

The only CD Trump has in lockdown in Wisconsin is WI-07 (the northern part). Cruz has in lockdown the area around Oshkosh (WI-06). The rest are pretty close, although Cruz has a clear lead in WI-05, and Trump in WI-01 (Paul Ryan's CD).
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« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2016, 03:45:55 pm »

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

Edit: And Clinton won Iowa too, obviously.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2016, 03:49:02 pm by BundouYMB »Logged
marty
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2016, 03:46:24 pm »

Could one thing trump has going against him in WI is that unlike in the south, white WI workers are more likely to be unionized and therefore more likely to be democratic voters supporting sanders?
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« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2016, 03:46:33 pm »

#iowaflashbacks
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2016, 03:48:49 pm »

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

I have to disagree. Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2016, 03:50:07 pm »

TRUMP has only have had leads in MO & Ga polls.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2016, 03:54:03 pm »

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

Really? Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

When that Marquette poll came out, almost exactly a month ago, Clinton led 47.6-42.0 in the RCP average. Today she leads 51.3-41.7.
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