Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2019, 01:41:03 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Bloomberg/Selzer National Poll: Clinton leads Trump and Cruz, trails Kasich
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Bloomberg/Selzer National Poll: Clinton leads Trump and Cruz, trails Kasich  (Read 1500 times)
Zache
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 417


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 23, 2016, 04:11:45 pm »

Clinton 54% Trump 36%
Clinton 51% Cruz 42%
Kasich 47% Clinton 43%

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-23/republicans-in-bloomberg-poll-not-sold-on-plan-to-stop-trump-im5c37sf
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 04:16:05 pm »

The GOP is staring into oblivion.
Logged
Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2016, 04:20:37 pm »

B-b-but Atlas told me that nominating Kasich at a brokered convention would be worse for the GOP than nominating Trump!
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2016, 04:23:44 pm »

Some wonderful numbers:

The Republican Party:
Favorable: 33
Unfavorable: 60

Mitt Romney:
Favorable: 32
Unfavorable: 58

Donald Trump:
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 69

Ted Cruz:
Favorable: 32
Unfavorable: 55

The Democratic Party:
Favorable: 51
Unfavorable: 43

Hillary Clinton:
Favorable: 43
Unfavorable: 53
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,811
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2016, 04:25:31 pm »

Impossible. I was told the Democratic Party was doomed unless we nominate Bernie Sanders.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,512


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2016, 04:36:23 pm »

Impossible. I was told the Democratic Party was doomed unless we nominate Bernie Sanders.

But all those Bernie Bros are going to write him in... so, yeah.
Logged
Liberalrocks
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,651
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2016, 04:41:38 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...
Logged
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,860
United States
P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2016, 04:47:24 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

She would sweep everything but the Deep South and WV, I think.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,453
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2016, 05:01:57 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

58% D to 40% R General Election result swung uniformly from 2012:



Take away MS, add TX, and you've got a map.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,512


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2016, 05:04:01 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

58% D to 40% R General Election result swung uniformly from 2012:



Take away MS, add TX, and you've got a map.

Tempted to say she'd also win UT and AR
Logged
Liberalrocks
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,651
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2016, 08:06:51 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

58% D to 40% R General Election result swung uniformly from 2012:



Take away MS, add TX, and you've got a map.

Tempted to say she'd also win UT and AR
Agreed on Arkansas not sure about Utah that still may be a tough haul for a democrat regardless of which nominee.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,453
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2016, 08:08:47 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

58% D to 40% R General Election result swung uniformly from 2012:



Take away MS, add TX, and you've got a map.

Tempted to say she'd also win UT and AR
Agreed on Arkansas not sure about Utah that still may be a tough haul for a democrat regardless of which nominee.

She's not winning Arkansas.
Logged
EliteLX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 970
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2016, 08:14:31 pm »
« Edited: March 23, 2016, 08:22:30 pm by EliteLX »

To all the satire Trump tools around this forum the past year trying to claim Marco, Jeb, and Kasich's electability would be crushed by Donald: you've yet again been proven as a bunch of scrubs. To every liberal and nutjob conservative who have tried giving this clown credit for the past year, you can all go fu[ck] yourself. It's a shame you've given the American people a lying corporatist corrupt poorly pandering broad and a nimwitted clown as your best options.

B..B..B...BUT IT'S A POLLING ERROR (X348739847)!

MUUH BAD POLLSTER.

MUUH REGISTERED VOTERS.

MUUH SAVIOR OF WHITE WORKING CLASS.

MUUH REAGAN DEMOCRATS.

MUH WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE!

MUUH BLACKS LOVE HIM.

MUUH MOST ELECTABLE GOP'er.

Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2016, 09:23:20 pm »
« Edited: March 23, 2016, 09:24:52 pm by Maxwell »

With those favorable ratings, Clinton is looking like a damn princess.

To all the satire Trump tools around this forum the past year trying to claim Marco, Jeb, and Kasich's electability would be crushed by Donald: you've yet again been proven as a bunch of scrubs. To every liberal and nutjob conservative who have tried giving this clown credit for the past year, you can all go fu[ck] yourself. It's a shame you've given the American people a lying corporatist corrupt poorly pandering broad and a nimwitted clown as your best options.

B..B..B...BUT IT'S A POLLING ERROR (X348739847)!

MUUH BAD POLLSTER.

MUUH REGISTERED VOTERS.

MUUH SAVIOR OF WHITE WORKING CLASS.

MUUH REAGAN DEMOCRATS.

MUH WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE!

MUUH BLACKS LOVE HIM.

MUUH MOST ELECTABLE GOP'er.



yawn. using the words "corporatist" unironically when you support either of Ted Cruz or John Kasich (don't know, don't care).

For the record - general election polls this far out are still a long shot. Doesn't mean I think Trump has a good shot (a better one than Ted! still), but writing this long diatribe this early is just asking to be made a fool of later on.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,709
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2016, 09:41:40 pm »

To all the satire Trump tools around this forum the past year trying to claim Marco, Jeb, and Kasich's electability would be crushed by Donald: you've yet again been proven as a bunch of scrubs. To every liberal and nutjob conservative who have tried giving this clown credit for the past year, you can all go fu[ck] yourself. It's a shame you've given the American people a lying corporatist corrupt poorly pandering broad and a nimwitted clown as your best options.

B..B..B...BUT IT'S A POLLING ERROR (X348739847)!

MUUH BAD POLLSTER.

MUUH REGISTERED VOTERS.

MUUH SAVIOR OF WHITE WORKING CLASS.

MUUH REAGAN DEMOCRATS.

MUH WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE!

MUUH BLACKS LOVE HIM.

MUUH MOST ELECTABLE GOP'er.


You have no one to thank but your party and its voters who are about to nominate him. Even your runner up is a crazy conservative who wants to ban muslims from immigrating into the United States and even monitoring them like animals. Crazy stuff.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,722
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2016, 09:43:04 pm »

None of you can seriously say that this poll isn't biased and expect to save face.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2016, 09:53:15 pm »

None of you can seriously say that this poll isn't biased and expect to save face.

Nobody is saying that, luckily.

I'm saying it's far out. These obviously aren't good numbers for Trump or Cruz.

And short-sighted TN Volunteer doesn't understand what plucking Kasich in the brokered convention would do to his favorables.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,709
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2016, 11:01:09 pm »

Nice to see that Clinton's poll numbers is going back into pre-2015 levels.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,155
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2016, 12:09:52 am »
« Edited: March 24, 2016, 12:12:57 am by Da-Jon »

To all the satire Trump tools around this forum the past year trying to claim Marco, Jeb, and Kasich's electability would be crushed by Donald: you've yet again been proven as a bunch of scrubs. To every liberal and nutjob conservative who have tried giving this clown credit for the past year, you can all go fu[ck] yourself. It's a shame you've given the American people a lying corporatist corrupt poorly pandering broad and a nimwitted clown as your best options.

B..B..B...BUT IT'S A POLLING ERROR (X348739847)!

MUUH BAD POLLSTER.

MUUH REGISTERED VOTERS.


Jeb gave way to Trump. Due to his flubs

McConnell is already gonna lose at least 5 seats in US Senate

But his obstruction is causing vulnerable House GOP in Latino districts to be even more vulnerable

Obamacare is working now. That's why Obama's approvals are above 50, younger workers are signing up.

No one can truely predict what Dem majority will look like at end. But. HILLARY will get 51% like Obama did
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 45,455


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2016, 06:30:54 pm »

This poll has Bernie beating Trump 58-34. Those who said that nominating Bernie could result in a worse defeat than McGovern had were correct. They just weren't correct about who would have the 24 point loss.
Logged
Joshua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,450
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2016, 06:42:24 pm »

This poll has Bernie beating Trump 58-34. Those who said that nominating Bernie could result in a worse defeat than McGovern had were correct. They just weren't correct about who would have the 24 point loss.

At what point will you stop citing hypothetical elections and address real person vote elections that Sanders is actually losing?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,210


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2016, 06:43:59 pm »

It's amazing how unlikable a Trump v. Clinton race would be. Have we ever had a race where neither side was liked by a majority of Americans?
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,422
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2016, 06:53:44 pm »

It's amazing how unlikable a Trump v. Clinton race would be. Have we ever had a race where neither side was liked by a majority of Americans?

1992?
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,709
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2016, 07:26:53 pm »

I wonder what an 18 point Clinton win would look like on the electoral map?...

I used the fivethirtyeight tool to see how the map would look like (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/) and I set it to this:

College educated whites: 54% D, 76% Turnout
Non college educated whites: 63% R, 58% Turnout
Blacks: 93% D, 64% Turnout
Hispanics: 85% D, 60% Turnout
Asians/Others: 80% D, 58% Turnout

It comes up to 58% Clinton - 40.2% Trump

The map looks like this:



445-93

http://i.imgur.com/1FqEdzS.png
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,025
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2016, 07:31:43 pm »

It's amazing how unlikable a Trump v. Clinton race would be. Have we ever had a race where neither side was liked by a majority of Americans?

1992?

While he struggled quite a bit early in the year, Clinton had net positive favorability after the Democratic convention in the summer, and retained that through election day:

Img

Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC