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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  PA - F&M: Trump 33, Kasich 30, Cruz 20; Clinton 52, Sanders 28
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Author Topic: PA - F&M: Trump 33, Kasich 30, Cruz 20; Clinton 52, Sanders 28  (Read 3595 times)
PeteB
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« on: March 24, 2016, 12:38:17 am »

The new March 24th Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania poll finds a big lead for Clinton in the state, and a virtual dead heat between Trump and Kasich.

Republicans
Trump 33 %
Kasich 30 %
Cruz 20 %

Democrats
Clinton 52 %
Sanders 28%

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2016, 12:38:57 am »

Franklin and Marshall poll out of PA:

Trump +3
Clinton +25 (53 Clinton / 28 Sanders)

General Election matchups:

Clinton/Trump: Clinton +13
Clinton/Cruz" Clinton +10

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2016, 12:41:03 am »

Wow, Clinton is pretty safe in PA. So much for this part of the calendar being "primary 2.0/Sandersslide everywhere".
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2016, 12:44:08 am »

Would be hilarious if Kasich beat Trump in PA.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2016, 12:44:41 am »

GOP support by region:

Philadelphia: Trump +14 over Cruz/Kasich
Northeast: Trump +15 over Kasich
Allegheny: Kasich +1 over Trump
Southwest: Trump +16 over Kasich
Northwest: Trump +23 over Kasich
Central: Kasich +1 over Trump
Southeast: Kasich +9 over Trump

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Clinton 67/25% for +42%
Sanders 64/22% for +42%

Cruz 48/32% for +16%
Trump 46/41% for +5%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2016, 12:45:35 am »
« Edited: March 24, 2016, 12:49:59 am by Ronnie »

Whoa...is it too late to sue to get Kasich off the ballot in the state?  Not saying that I want it to happen, but a college student who was a Rubio supporter tried to do it until his candidate dropped out.

Cruz might want to think twice before whining about Kasich being in the race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2016, 12:50:22 am »

Wow, Clinton is pretty safe in PA. So much for this part of the calendar being "primary 2.0/Sandersslide everywhere".

They forgot there's more than caucuses. Tongue

PA is Hillary country. Smiley
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marty
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2016, 12:57:26 am »

remember, kasich was born here.

also, how is this race so close when the region by region breakdown has trump kicking butt everywhere.
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marty
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2016, 01:00:04 am »

17% undecided, that should help kasich and cruz.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2016, 01:05:11 am »

remember, kasich was born here.

also, how is this race so close when the region by region breakdown has trump kicking butt everywhere.

Kasich is ahead in areas where there are going to be more voters, and that's just how F&M weighed the poll. I dunno how accurate Kasich's strength in the southeast is though considering how strong Trump will be in the surrounding area in nearby states.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2016, 01:07:32 am »

Some of my thoughts on this poll...

Dems:
Doesn't surprise me much at all. PA is a closed primary, and Hillary actually won registered Democrats 64-35 in Ohio, a pretty similar state. The margin will likely narrow once Sanders actually starts campaigning in the state and running ads, but I expect an easy Hillary win in the double digits. Regional breakdowns will be what you'd expect: Hillary dominating in Philly (the machine is going to pull out all the stops for her) and cleaning up in the suburbs. Sanders will do well in the West and the T, especially Centre County where Penn State is.

Reps:
This one is interesting for a few reasons. For one thing, Kasich was born here. I kind of doubt that matters much, but it's something. More likely is that many have some exposure to Kasich due to him being governor of a neighboring state and can relate to him more. Secondly, Trump has a bit of a problem with this being a closed primary, and it hits him on both sides. A chunk of the "Dixiecrats" in Appalachia that usually support him won't be able to vote for him (consequentially, they could give Sanders a boost, or maybe not. They've been unpredictable so far.) On top of that, there's kind of a "reverse Dixiecrat" problem for Trump. I'll call them Yankeepublicans. Republicans who are moderate, suburban, perhaps pro-choice, and turned off to the national GOP yet still occasionally support state and local Republicans. Needless to say, Trump is repulsive to this crowd. You can see this quite clearly in Kasich winning the SE by 9 points. If Rubio was still in to split this vote, Trump would be in much better shape. I think Trump wins the state still, particularly since the Kasich campaign does not exactly seem like it has the strength or resources to wage a major challenge in the state, but it could be close. As for Cruz, he won't be relevant outside of winning some stray Pennsyltucky counties.
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Shadows
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2016, 01:11:16 am »
« Edited: March 24, 2016, 01:14:09 am by Shadows »

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?
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marty
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2016, 01:11:21 am »

Could we see cruz pull a rubio here and tell his folks to vote kasich?
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P123
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2016, 01:19:29 am »

Closed primary for the Democrats, which helps Clinton. Also their are much more minorities in Pennsylvania then Ohio (were Clinton won easily)...Yeah Clinton should crush Sanders here by 15-20pts...

For the Republicans, I favor Trump but only slightly. Kasich has a shot here to (similar to Ohio etc).

If I were Kasich I would just campaign in Pennsylvania and a few other small northern states like Rhode Island. And completely forget about Wisconsin, as if Cruz wins their it increases chances of a brokered convention.
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marty
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2016, 01:20:41 am »

Closed primary for the Democrats, which helps Clinton. Also their are much more minorities in Pennsylvania then Ohio (were Clinton won easily)...Yeah Clinton should crush Sanders here by 15-20pts...

For the Republicans, I favor Trump but only slightly. Kasich has a shot here to (similar to Ohio etc).

If I were Kasich I would just campaign in Pennsylvania and a few other small northern states like Rhode Island. And completely forget about Wisconsin, as if Cruz wins their it increases chances of a brokered convention.

is this a closed primary for the gop? If so, that might help kasich because the voters in the coal and appalachian regions are less likely to be registered.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2016, 01:21:27 am »

Could we see cruz pull a rubio here and tell his folks to vote kasich?


I am not sure Cruz is capable of this kind of strategy.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2016, 01:24:34 am »

Closed primary for the Democrats, which helps Clinton. Also their are much more minorities in Pennsylvania then Ohio (were Clinton won easily)...Yeah Clinton should crush Sanders here by 15-20pts...

For the Republicans, I favor Trump but only slightly. Kasich has a shot here to (similar to Ohio etc).

If I were Kasich I would just campaign in Pennsylvania and a few other small northern states like Rhode Island. And completely forget about Wisconsin, as if Cruz wins their it increases chances of a brokered convention.

is this a closed primary for the gop? If so, that might help kasich because the voters in the coal and appalachian regions are less likely to be registered.

It's closed on both sides.
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P123
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« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2016, 01:33:54 am »

Closed primary for the Democrats, which helps Clinton. Also their are much more minorities in Pennsylvania then Ohio (were Clinton won easily)...Yeah Clinton should crush Sanders here by 15-20pts...

For the Republicans, I favor Trump but only slightly. Kasich has a shot here to (similar to Ohio etc).

If I were Kasich I would just campaign in Pennsylvania and a few other small northern states like Rhode Island. And completely forget about Wisconsin, as if Cruz wins their it increases chances of a brokered convention.

is this a closed primary for the gop? If so, that might help kasich because the voters in the coal and appalachian regions are less likely to be registered.

It's closed on both sides.

Yeah Kasich could win Pennsylvania, but I still favor Trump.

Clinton will obviously blow Sanders out, proabably worse then Ohio. Clinton has vastly more strength among Pennsylvania/Ohio White Democrats versus other states.

I believe Ohio is the only other state besides Arkansas were she won the white vote.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2016, 01:36:42 am »

I believe Ohio is the only other state besides Arkansas were she won the white vote.

She won the white vote in every Southern state except Oklahoma, as well as Arizona most likely.
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Shadows
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2016, 01:37:32 am »

Why can't people discuss using real hard truths.

PA has around 1.5% less AA than Ohio!

Compared to Illinois, PA has 4% less Blacks, 10% less Hispanics!

If Sanders would be challenged demographically it will be MD or DE not PA (Though Clinton is a strong favorite for PA)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2016, 01:42:31 am »

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?

F&M is a highly respected pollster in PA. They nailed both the presidential and Senate margins in 2012, and came very close to the final margin in the 2014 governor's race, so they must be doing something right.

You do bring up a good point with the age ranges though. Youth turnout was substantially lower than those examples you gave in certain states, plus PA is a pretty "old state" in general, so those could be factors. But even considering that the sample is too old. Either they got a really wonky sample, or the kids aren't paying attention yet. Tongue
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marty
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« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2016, 01:44:35 am »

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?

F&M is a highly respected pollster in PA. They nailed both the presidential and Senate margins in 2012, and came very close to the final margin in the 2014 governor's race, so they must be doing something right.

You do bring up a good point with the age ranges though. Youth turnout was substantially lower than those examples you gave in certain states, plus PA is a pretty "old state" in general, so those could be factors. But even considering that the sample is too old. Either they got a really wonky sample, or the kids aren't paying attention yet. Tongue

icespear, so on the GOP side, only 17 delegates are at stake and the rest are unbound? Doesn't that sorta put a damper on this battle, considering even "momentum" has been utterly useless so far?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2016, 01:46:50 am »

Why can't people discuss using real hard truths.

PA has around 1.5% less AA than Ohio!

Compared to Illinois, PA has 4% less Blacks, 10% less Hispanics!

If Sanders would be challenged demographically it will be MD or DE not PA (Though Clinton is a strong favorite for PA)

You're forgetting that Ohio was an open primary and Sanders won independents (24% of the electorate) 66-33. That major chunk of the vote is now gone for him.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2016, 01:52:31 am »

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?

F&M is a highly respected pollster in PA. They nailed both the presidential and Senate margins in 2012, and came very close to the final margin in the 2014 governor's race, so they must be doing something right.

You do bring up a good point with the age ranges though. Youth turnout was substantially lower than those examples you gave in certain states, plus PA is a pretty "old state" in general, so those could be factors. But even considering that the sample is too old. Either they got a really wonky sample, or the kids aren't paying attention yet. Tongue

icespear, so on the GOP side, only 17 delegates are at stake and the rest are unbound? Doesn't that sorta put a damper on this battle, considering even "momentum" has been utterly useless so far?

Yup. It's not make or break obviously, but on the GOP side every single delegate could matter.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2016, 02:05:36 am »

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?

Pennsylvania is the second or third oldest state you numbskull.
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